Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060987847577001984

McSally gained 857 votes.

[Gass3268]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country.

The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections.

It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections

Not to mention that band of thugs in Black robes don't seem to give a flying s*** about stare decius

There has been some talk about Roberts not overturning decisions made under his court, regardless of his view on it. I'll believe it when I see it, but that's been the talk.

[Gass3268]

Trump calling for a new election in Arizona?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060993836984324096

He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020.

[Gass3268]

The Salt Lake Tribune has basically written Love's obituary and predicts that the race will be called later today: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/

I almost feel bad that only black GOP congresswoman loses when most of her white male colleagues, most of whom are more ideologically reprehensible than her, get to have another term... but obviously I would much rather have McAdams in Congress, so this is a pleasantly surprising result. I knew it would be very close, but I would assigned it a Tilt R rating before Tilt D one.

The number of Republican women in the House for the next term is going to be very low. Like around 15.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060984339964588032

How can you argue that this should be counted?

The Dem is circled and Scott's name is crossed out. That being said, I can see this getting counted.

My Lord people just follow the instructions!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1061007651973357569

[Gass3268]

Hopefully we can get a solid number on ballots in Broward County.

A lot of the rhetoric from Scott, Trump and other Republicans have been horrific, but I agree that Broward County has been thoroughly inept and incompetent with this whole process. Brenda Snipes (Jeb appointee) deserves to lose her job, but in many ways this looks to be a county culture issue as the last person was removed for being awful too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061013959988273152

Almost no change, Simena up 8,619

[Gass3268]

Settlement was reached between Republicans and Democrats over the signature issue:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaADouglas/status/1061014309889658880

[Gass3268]

When does California start updating their results?  I've been trying to follow CA-10, but it doesn't seem like the results have changed since election night.

It varies, I know there is going to be another Orange County update at 5pm PT.

[Gass3268]

Republican lead in the SoS race has stunk to 9,560.

[Gass3268]

CA-10 just flipped!

[Gass3268]

Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?

Probably going to go to a recount after there was a tabulation error.

[Gass3268]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California.

[Gass3268]

Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else

There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive.

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1061070671466381312

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

Oh how I adore this post.

Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are.

I have a theory as to how Comstock got all that extra late money after the NRCC had already pulled their funds. If you remember, Comstock got those funds back right around the same time all the skeletons in Kavanaugh's closet came out. Comstock and Kavanaugh have been acquaintances/friends for at least 10-20 years through their prior work in the Bush administration. What if she had more dirt or could corroborate some of the allegations against Kavanugh? Not saying that he tried to rape her, but rather maybe a story from his prep school or college days was well known around their social circles. What if she threatens to take this public unless she gets more funds from the NRCC?

Probably didn't happen, but it's the best explanation I have.

[Gass3268]

So much for the most conservative generation in American history

ikr? If anything, they are getting more Democratic/left-leaning. 18-24 year olds continue to be the strongest age cohort for Democrats, when they vote, anyway.

I think that "most conservative generation" remark was meant sarcastically.

(Though ironically these days, Dem/left-leaning *might as well* reflect something "conservative"--in the non-political, "sensible" sense: Ocasio-Cortez as the polar opposite of the excesses of Trump, Kavanaugh, Roy Moore et al.)

Yea, the Nazi generation thing was a joke, but there was a serious argument that "generation z" or whatever it is being called was going to be more conservative than Millennials. People even cited dubious studies from the UK. But, I guess to be fair, "more conservative" doesn't mean Republican-leaning. It just means less Democratic-leaning than Millennials.

Either way, that's not the case so far. Whenever it does become the case, it will be hard to miss.

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

[Gass3268]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

[Gass3268]

I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A.

[Gass3268]

The Republican is only up 6,203 in the SoS race now.

[Gass3268]

This was from last night, but it essentially remains the same:

https://twitter.com/treyterry/status/1061054243413483520

McSally needs to win the rest of the Maricopa County vote by 11% (probably a bit more now with what came and what is left from Pima). So far, she's only winning the ED voters in Maricopa County by 5.2%.

[Gass3268]

Here we go!

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061406737633181696

[Gass3268]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Republicans would never have given a hearing to anyone Clinton had nominated anyway. Also, with things going the way they have gone, support for court packing has steadily risen (and will rise further if Trump ends up replacing Ginsburg or anything like that, and will rise with each of the many unpopular decisions the partisan GOP SCOTUS may make).

That's why I said I would assume a Clinton win would include a Democratic Senate.