MI-Mitchell: Stabenow +7

[Skye]

Stabenow (D, inc.)   53
James (R)                46

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_11-18_Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11-5-18_.pdf

Their last poll was Stabenow +6.

[SN2903]

It's gonna be close.  James is doing very well for a year that favors Rs. This and Montana have the best upset potential in my opinion.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

It's gonna be close.  James is doing very well for a year that favors Rs. This and Montana have the best upset potential in my opinion.

No.

[Gass3268]

Stabenow with the momentum.

[SN2903]

Stabenow with the momentum.

her poll numbers are inflated. James has the momentum. She was up like 18 in September

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, this has upset potential, still likely D, and looks close to the final margin.

[Skye]

Stabenow with the momentum.

her poll numbers are inflated. James has the momentum. She was up like 18 in September

Why do you insist on saying her poll numbers are inflated? Evidence to prove it? Saying "2016" doesn't count, btw.

[Bojack Horseman]

Safe D

[Senator Incitatus]

This has more potential than NJ for an upset now, but that's not saying a whole lot. MT or WV is the far greater chance. Looks like every race is reverting back to its fundamentals.

[Yellowhammer]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

[SN2903]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

[MT Treasurer]

I’d be surprised if James did worse than Schuette, not that it really matters.

[Skunk]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

[Tartarus Sauce]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

Ah yes, the vaunted, empirically rigorous, prognostic tradition of yard sign counting. Why bother having all these academically trained, graduate-degree holding statisticians craft complex models on multi-variate data sets when we could just tally political advertisements draped across our neighbors' lawns? Nothing has a better track record of election forecasting than that!

[SN2903]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

Ah yes, the vaunted, empirically rigorous, prognostic tradition of yard sign counting. Why bother having all these academically trained, graduate-degree holding statisticians craft complex models on multi-variate data sets when we could just tally political advertisements draped across our neighbors' lawns? Nothing has a better track record of election forecasting than that!

Yeah and all you experts were on here the day before the election last time saying Trump had no chance. Gonna be a long night for liberals tomorrow.

[Politician]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

Ah yes, the vaunted, empirically rigorous, prognostic tradition of yard sign counting. Why bother having all these academically trained, graduate-degree holding statisticians craft complex models on multi-variate data sets when we could just tally political advertisements draped across our neighbors' lawns? Nothing has a better track record of election forecasting than that!

Yeah and all you experts were on here the day before the election last time saying Trump had no chance. Gonna be a long night for liberals tomorrow.

In Massachusetts (at least, the area I live) Diehl signs outnumber Warren signs 10 to 1. Does that make MA-SEN Safe R?

[Tartarus Sauce]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

Ah yes, the vaunted, empirically rigorous, prognostic tradition of yard sign counting. Why bother having all these academically trained, graduate-degree holding statisticians craft complex models on multi-variate data sets when we could just tally political advertisements draped across our neighbors' lawns? Nothing has a better track record of election forecasting than that!

Yeah and all you experts were on here the day before the election last time saying Trump had no chance. Gonna be a long night for liberals tomorrow.

Going purely off your own selection bias and small sample sizes will lead to bigger misses in the aggregate than polling data and models. Selection bias is in fact why most of us liberals underestimated his chances of winning, so welcome to the club of playing the fool. Then again, I am talking to somebody who thinks one can predict upsets based on yard signs and rally sizes, so I guess you'll just need to see yourself proven wrong before you believe it. Democrats have gotten used to that kind of reality-slapping disappointment over the past decade, will you be ready?

[SN2903]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

Ah yes, the vaunted, empirically rigorous, prognostic tradition of yard sign counting. Why bother having all these academically trained, graduate-degree holding statisticians craft complex models on multi-variate data sets when we could just tally political advertisements draped across our neighbors' lawns? Nothing has a better track record of election forecasting than that!

Yeah and all you experts were on here the day before the election last time saying Trump had no chance. Gonna be a long night for liberals tomorrow.

Going purely off your own selection bias and small sample sizes will lead to bigger misses in the aggregate than polling data and models. Selection bias is in fact why most of us liberals underestimated his chances of winning, so welcome to the club of playing the fool. Then again, I am talking to somebody who thinks one can predict upsets based on yard signs and rally sizes, so I guess you'll just need to see yourself proven wrong before you believe it. Democrats have gotten used to that kind of reality-slapping disappointment over the past decade, will you be ready?

Liberals always dismiss stuff that isn't conventional wisdom. Yard signs may sound silly, the same as the crowds at rallies but we are in a new era where Trump is turning out people who never used to vote. He has a very large base and that cannot be discounted. I understand Michigan well I am from here. Debbie Stabenow has been in office 43 years. All the moderate voters I know are voting for James. It's going to be a tight race and the governors could be as well. Michigan is just not the reliably democratic state it used to be anymore. 2016 proved it. Tomorrow we will find out if the game has totally been changed and if Trump can defy conventional wisdom again.

[they don't love you like i love you]

This isn't going to come close flipping, but it's quite possible that James keeps it to a 5-8 point loss.

We'll see. I live in Michigan and I have seen 5 to 1 signs James to Stabenow .

In 2016 I saw signs for the Republican candidate for MN-05 outnumber Keith Ellison's about 5 to 1.

[Technocracy Timmy]

In 2016 I saw signs for the Republican candidate for MN-05 outnumber Keith Ellison's about 5 to 1.

And exactly how could you notice that ratio of signs when you were too busy the summer of 2016 playing Pokémon Go?

[ElectionsGuy]

So with minimal undecideds what this shows is that James basically has next to no chance.

[Calthrina950]

It's astonishing how James has managed to be so competitive here, given the national environment. He might actually become Stabenow's first opponent since Spencer Abraham in 2000 to keep his loss to her within single digits. A 7-9 pt. Stabenow victory seems to be very possible at this point. As I've said before, Stabenow (as well as Baldwin, Casey, Manchin, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill, Nelson, and Menendez) should be glad that Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election, because she might actually have been in serious jeopardy.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's gonna be close.  James is doing very well for a year that favors Rs. This and Montana have the best upset potential in my opinion.

lmao