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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1  (Read 3270 times)
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


« on: November 05, 2018, 12:23:20 am »

But I thought the data showed that McSally was up by 10?! Isnt that what the director said?!
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Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 10:10:27 am »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.
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Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,827
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2018, 12:47:40 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

Ah, I see, your mistake is the D and R numbers for crossover. The Ds are predicted to get 90-10 for D votes(there are some ancestral D areas in AZ), the Rs, however, are predicted to get 80-20 of the R vote. The Indie numbers are close to what the polls say so far.

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