AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 05:11:17 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1  (Read 6848 times)
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


« on: November 05, 2018, 10:07:08 AM »

When OH isn’t promoting mcsally on twitter they are touting their recent +7 mcsally poll, OH is very defensive on twitter so I want someone to ask them what on earth happened in a few days that made mcsally loose 6 points???
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 03:04:21 PM »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns don’t show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didn’t mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2018, 07:04:18 PM »

So, it looks like my favourite AZ Pollster got this one right.

you should refresh the results page
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 13 queries.