Change Research (D) Montana-Senate: Rosendale +3
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  Change Research (D) Montana-Senate: Rosendale +3
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Author Topic: Change Research (D) Montana-Senate: Rosendale +3  (Read 4660 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2018, 12:44:04 AM »

Regardless of who wins on Tuesday (gun to my head, the most likely outcome is still a narrow Tester victory, but I wouldnt be surprised if Rosendale narrowly eked it out either), I look forward to the "Montana is clearly less competitive than New Jersey/Wisconsin/Texas/Nevada/etc." clowns being proven wrong. Its almost as if Atlas #analysis of this race and NV-SEN has been a total joke.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2018, 02:16:55 AM »

Northam won by 9 points and there were still a handful of polls that showed Gillespie ahead.
Maybe we should consider polls like this in that context.
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Person Man
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« Reply #27 on: November 05, 2018, 08:20:55 AM »

Hey. It could happen.
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SN2903
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« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2018, 08:30:21 AM »

Rosendale is gonna be the upset of the night.
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J. J.
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« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2018, 08:36:26 AM »

The only good poll out of MT in the last month is Gravis; it is also the repeated poll (9/24 and 10/26).  Tester went from +4 to +3.

It is probably trending towards Rosendale, but is trending enough to flip the state?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2018, 08:46:23 AM »

Rosendale is gonna be the upset of the night.

Whatever krazey.
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UWS
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« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2018, 09:09:37 AM »

The moreover that this poll was released before Rick Breckenridge, the Libertarian candidate, endorsed Rosendale so if we combine his numbers to Rosendale's, Rosendale would be leading by 6 points with 52 % of the vote.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2018, 09:32:34 AM »

The moreover that this poll was released before Rick Breckenridge, the Libertarian candidate, endorsed Rosendale so if we combine his numbers to Rosendale's, Rosendale would be leading by 6 points with 52 % of the vote.
That is not good for Tester.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2018, 11:27:57 AM »

The moreover that this poll was released before Rick Breckenridge, the Libertarian candidate, endorsed Rosendale so if we combine his numbers to Rosendale's, Rosendale would be leading by 6 points with 52 % of the vote.
That is not good for Tester.

This could account for the change of events. Breckenridge supporters were coming home to Rosendale even before the endorsement. That's generally what happens with third parties. I predicted a +6 Tester win last week. If he loses, there's a good chance the national environment won't be favoring Dems either.
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Politician
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« Reply #34 on: November 13, 2018, 04:51:19 PM »

Junk poll!
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #35 on: November 18, 2018, 12:43:46 PM »


It was only off by six though! Judging by Change Research's history of missing by double digits consistently, that's actually progress.
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jfern
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« Reply #36 on: November 19, 2018, 11:09:24 PM »


It was only off by six though! Judging by Change Research's history of missing by double digits consistently, that's actually progress.

True, better to get the wrong result but be close then the right result by miss by a mile like this Rasmussen poll.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/hi/hawaii_senate_cavasso_vs_inouye-1726.html
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #37 on: December 17, 2018, 10:07:39 AM »

Rosendale is gonna be the upset of the night.

Sure Jan
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