NH-UNH: Tied race

[MT Treasurer]

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[MT Treasurer]

If Kelly can pull off a win in NH then Dems could've absolutely taken MD & MA even VT with better candidates.

NH is, let’s just say, a special case.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, I was completely wrong about this race, and there’s no way to spin this. The only thing I will say is that even though NH is a state that will certainly elect liberal to moderate Republican governors at times, I don’t expect Sununu's success to be replicated at the federal level if he decides to run against Jeanne Shaheen. Senate races are a lot more partisan than gubernatorial elections, and let’s not forget that NH Republicans were wiped off the face of the earth in virtually every other race in the state (they lost both congressional districts in a landslide, lost the Executive Council, the State Senate, and the NH House). It’s hardly a coincidence that Chris Sununu did A LOT worse than Baker, Scott, and even Hogan(!) yesterday despite running in a more competitive state, and it also shows you just how high the Democratic floor in NH is. So while I agree that NH is more winnable for Republicans than CO/NV/VA, I wouldn’t go as far as to rate it a "Toss-up" for 2020. Safe D? Certainly not, but I’d say it’s closer to Lean or maybe Likely D (depending on the environment and the Democratic candidate) than Toss-up.