🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[beesley]

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

[beesley]

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

There is a third one:
https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/blog/

Danke euch beiden.

[beesley]

I hope Scholz really capitalises on everything he can - I actually think this election is a real chance for the SPD providing they keep the Greens down - hard when they fight different battles geography and demographics-wise.

[beesley]

A pointless but fun exercise would be to predict how many Bundesländer each party will win a constituency seat in.

SPD: Thanks to München and Mannheim/Heidelberg, all 16 seem safeish bets, though it's possible Bayern sticks to its roots, I suppose, or that they miss out in Sachsen, but neither of those seem likely.

Union: I'm going to predict they're locked out of Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, R-P, Saarland, Sachsen,  Sachsen-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein and Thüringen. I presume Merkel still has some coattails in her seat. That leaves 6, a pretty low total.

Grüne: Hardest to predict - beyond Berlin and Baden Wurttemberg it's tough as you're essentially predicting individual seats. 3 on the balance of probability, Sachsen seems the most likely given SPD dominance elsewhere.

AfD: 2. Sachsen and Thüringen, relying on hearsay somewhat.

Die Linke: 1. Berlin seems a safe bet but Sachsen doesn't.

FDP - 0. They won't win any, as usual.

[beesley]

Disappointing that the SPD aren't clearly winning, but they are potentially in contention for winning and government. So leave the self-righteous takes for now.

[beesley]

Did 37: Luchow-Dannenberg-Luneburg just flip in Niedersachen to SPD?

Yes. Greens ran them close.