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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214124 times)
Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #2100 on: September 27, 2021, 02:28:59 AM »

How do you get a “ Jamaica coalition” from an SPD victory considering that red isn’t one of the colors on the flag of Jamaica?

In a system in which the majority of parliament chooses the head of government, it doesn't really matter which party comes out on top. It's not irrelevant, but it's more like a symbolic win. All that matters is which parties form a coalition that encompasses the majority of the members of the Bundestag.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2101 on: September 27, 2021, 02:50:31 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2102 on: September 27, 2021, 02:58:46 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2103 on: September 27, 2021, 03:03:22 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2104 on: September 27, 2021, 03:08:26 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.

I mean, wouldn't this apply to the CDU too? Plus especially in a traffic light coalition I expect the SPD to counter this influence (I understand the worry if Jamaica happens)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2105 on: September 27, 2021, 03:11:44 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.

I mean, wouldn't this apply to the CDU too? Plus especially in a traffic light coalition I expect the SPD to counter this influence (I understand the worry if Jamaica happens)

The CDU under Merkel and Laschet has taken a far more pragmatic stance on economic governance than you would have imagined a decade ago. I still consider it far too timid, of course, but they're not full-blown true believers like the FDP. I highly doubt a government with the FDP in it would have agreed to the EU-wide stimulus plan.
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« Reply #2106 on: September 27, 2021, 03:23:26 AM »


Alas, that map is wrong. That's why I stopped updating it. 😕
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2107 on: September 27, 2021, 03:42:59 AM »

They have the actual map here: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Anyway, impressive how well CDU held up in North-Rhine-Westphalia, given that it was completely shut out of almost all of Northern Germany otherwise. This is a really strange-looking map by historical comparisons.
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« Reply #2108 on: September 27, 2021, 03:53:09 AM »

The SPD gain Pinneberg. Scholz will be chancellor, then. (The party winning this district got the chancellorship since 1953) *g*

I just wanted to mention that I already mentioned that bellwether district prior to the election.
Schleswig-Holstein as a whole is the bellwether state for federal elections, btw, I hasn't disappointed once again.
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« Reply #2109 on: September 27, 2021, 03:56:28 AM »

They have the actual map here: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Anyway, impressive how well CDU held up in North-Rhine-Westphalia, given that it was completely shut out of almost all of Northern Germany otherwise. This is a really strange-looking map by historical comparisons.

That's the second-vote map, though.
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Skye
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« Reply #2110 on: September 27, 2021, 04:07:49 AM »

Saxony was a mistake.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2111 on: September 27, 2021, 04:43:47 AM »

Some of the takes on this thread when the exit polls dropped Smiley
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« Reply #2112 on: September 27, 2021, 04:49:17 AM »

Strongholds and weakholds of the parties:

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Helsinkian
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« Reply #2113 on: September 27, 2021, 04:51:36 AM »

If it's so easy for SSW to get that one seat, why did they not run in federal elections for several decades, until now?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #2114 on: September 27, 2021, 04:56:54 AM »

Some of the takes on this thread when the exit polls dropped Smiley

It's a well established tradition that every time a large European country has an election, the thread immediately gets bombarded with American teenagers' takes that make the regulars want to pull their hair out

And of course Tuttlingen would be the FDP's best result in the country. Uggh.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #2115 on: September 27, 2021, 05:19:31 AM »

Some of the takes on this thread when the exit polls dropped Smiley

It's a well established tradition that every time a large European country has an election, the thread immediately gets bombarded with American teenagers' takes that make the regulars want to pull their hair out

Good idea not to be online on election night. I know that many people come here to learn and I am very happy to provide information to anyone who needs them, but I must say that the one take that the FDP might form a coalition under their chancellorship if both Union and SPD fail to form a majority is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on this thread.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2116 on: September 27, 2021, 05:31:32 AM »

Newssources like Tagesschau already report there is severe backlash against Laschet among members of the CDU's and CSU's chairboards and he kinda took back the expression for a "mandate to form a government". Saxony Minister-President Michael Kretschmer said he doesn't see a mandate to govern for his party. So it remains to be seen what happens within the Union in the next few days.

Jamaica is still not off the table, though Anton Hofreiter and Michael Kellner, leading Green politicians, openly said to prefer a coalition with the SPD. Hofreiter explicitly stated that the party gained five points while the Union lost a lot of ground.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2117 on: September 27, 2021, 05:41:03 AM »

Some of the takes on this thread when the exit polls dropped Smiley

It's a well established tradition that every time a large European country has an election, the thread immediately gets bombarded with American teenagers' takes that make the regulars want to pull their hair out

Good idea not to be online on election night. I know that many people come here to learn and I am very happy to provide information to anyone who needs them, but I must say that the one take that the FDP might form a coalition under their chancellorship if both Union and SPD fail to form a majority is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on this thread.

You mean an FDP-Grune-AfD-Linke coalition isn't realistic?  Cry
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2118 on: September 27, 2021, 05:57:36 AM »

They have the actual map here: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Anyway, impressive how well CDU held up in North-Rhine-Westphalia, given that it was completely shut out of almost all of Northern Germany otherwise. This is a really strange-looking map by historical comparisons.

That's the second-vote map, though.

Presumably that's a better metric that first votes, given the possibility of local candidate quality causing distortions.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #2119 on: September 27, 2021, 06:24:14 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.
Left-wing buzzwords. Neither the SPD nor the CDU want to confront the fact that a pension system where you pay in 20% of your average lifetime wage for 40 years and then want to get out 50% of your final wage before retirement simply cannot work especialy with germanies shrinking economic pyramid.

All the parties have been wasting Germany's economic surplus on wasteful pet projects and adding bureaucracy that has killed the construction of new infrastructure and companies by anybody except the very rich. The other parties have constructed a regulatory system that has made it punishingly expensive to build anythig new and are incabable of seeing non-state solutions to problems.
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adma
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« Reply #2120 on: September 27, 2021, 06:44:19 AM »

Incidentally, why is it that FDP this time is polling so well among the young?  Is classically-liberal middle the new far right or something?  (I'm not talking about ideology; I'm talking about counterintuitive fashionable vote draw)
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« Reply #2121 on: September 27, 2021, 07:01:19 AM »

Incidentally, why is it that FDP this time is polling so well among the young?  Is classically-liberal middle the new far right or something?  (I'm not talking about ideology; I'm talking about counterintuitive fashionable vote draw)
I assume it’s Lindner’s perceived youth and competence when faced by a Rotkohl like Laschet and dried Spargel Scholz.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #2122 on: September 27, 2021, 07:02:09 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.
Left-wing buzzwords. Neither the SPD nor the CDU want to confront the fact that a pension system where you pay in 20% of your average lifetime wage for 40 years and then want to get out 50% of your final wage before retirement simply cannot work especialy with germanies shrinking economic pyramid.

All the parties have been wasting Germany's economic surplus on wasteful pet projects and adding bureaucracy that has killed the construction of new infrastructure and companies by anybody except the very rich. The other parties have constructed a regulatory system that has made it punishingly expensive to build anythig new and are incabable of seeing non-state solutions to problems.

Except they're not buzzwords, the FDP are signed up to chasing after a pointless budget surplus (at the same time as cutting taxes no less) and restrictive monetary policy not just at a time of economic fragility but even after the enourmous self harm that these policies did to the Eurpoean economy that was only solved once the ECB loosened it's monetary policy and Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes". At least the CDU have somewhat moved on from this, but the Liberals haven't.

It is precisely this surplus obsession that is at the root cause of so many of the election's main issues  the failure to develop the digital and rail infrastructure, to build up renewable energies, the lack of preparedness for the floods all down to precisely that Germany's austerity obsession and ordoliberal dogmatism.

Add to that the FDP's naive faith that the best solution to everything is more markets; you can criticise the Mietendeckel all you want, but the FDP are just as much, even more so, signed up to the naïve and failed economic policies of the past.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #2123 on: September 27, 2021, 07:26:36 AM »

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.
Left-wing buzzwords. Neither the SPD nor the CDU want to confront the fact that a pension system where you pay in 20% of your average lifetime wage for 40 years and then want to get out 50% of your final wage before retirement simply cannot work especialy with germanies shrinking economic pyramid.

All the parties have been wasting Germany's economic surplus on wasteful pet projects and adding bureaucracy that has killed the construction of new infrastructure and companies by anybody except the very rich. The other parties have constructed a regulatory system that has made it punishingly expensive to build anythig new and are incabable of seeing non-state solutions to problems.

Except they're not buzzwords, the FDP are signed up to chasing after a pointless budget surplus (at the same time as cutting taxes no less) and restrictive monetary policy not just at a time of economic fragility but even after the enourmous self harm that these policies did to the Eurpoean economy that was only solved once the ECB loosened it's monetary policy and Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes". At least the CDU have somewhat moved on from this, but the Liberals haven't.

It is precisely this surplus obsession that is at the root cause of so many of the election's main issues  the failure to develop the digital and rail infrastructure, to build up renewable energies, the lack of preparedness for the floods all down to precisely that Germany's austerity obsession and ordoliberal dogmatism.

Add to that the FDP's naive faith that the best solution to everything is more markets; you can criticise the Mietendeckel all you want, but the FDP are just as much, even more so, signed up to the naïve and failed economic policies of the past.
Neoliberalism means nothing today and the title of austerity fanatic is applied too broadly. The FDP isn't some austerity obsessed culture are you try to paint it but rather the true practioners of Keynsian Economics. Surplus in times of economic booms should be saved to be spent when times are bad, but the Groko parties have instead created massive giveaways to their pet counstieuncies such as lowering the retirement age, creating illegal road taxes or uncounstional rent control.

The problem is that the lack of investment comes from a rigid bureaucratic and regulatory system created with good intentions by the greens and SPD to protect the environment to essneitatly magnify the cost of any construction or development tenfold through bureaucracy and delays. The CDU and CSU have also supported this system because it lets them resist any project that might threaten the status quo. The FDP is the only party willing to take on the entrenched interests and reform thi system.

You accuse the FDP to being wedded to bad ideas but I would argue that applies far more to the greens and SPD who both refuse to admit it was a mistake to demand and immediate end to all nuclear power in germany(essentially  destroying 2 decades of progress towards decarbonizations) leading to a rise of coal power. The RRG goverment in berlin has complelty failied to solve the problem of rising rents and poor economic perfomance of the city, instead of biting the bullet and realzing they need to build more houses to cope with their growing population they have resorted to populist nonsense like the latest non-binding referedum.

The FDP is not perfect and does have ideological baggage but at least they're pointing in the right direction and asking the right questions.
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Astatine
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« Reply #2124 on: September 27, 2021, 07:32:08 AM »

A small overview of the underrated winners and losers of this election:

Winners:
- Bundestag interior architects. The Bundestag size was expected to increase by a lot (up to 1000 seats) thanks to CDU/CSU opposing any seat distribution reform when it comes to the numbers of districts, but with 735 MPs (+26), the increase in seats was relatively moderate. If Die Linke had failed to win the 3 lifeline seats, the size of our Parliament might have decreased actually, contrary to all expectations.
- Stoners. In 2017, right ahead of the failure of the Jamaica negotiations, it was widely stated that this would be the most weed-friendly government. Now, with FDP and Greens being in stronger negotiation position, it seems very likely that more steps will be taken towards a decriminalization or legalization of cannabis (more likely in a traffic light coalition than Jamaica).
- Polling. Results for almost all parties and pollsters were within the MoE with no big surprises, apart from Die Linke's bad result.

Losers:
- ARD/Infratest dimap exit polls. The preferred election night source for many, and usually, their exit polls have had a track record of being somewhat more accurate than ZDF's, but not this time. ARD had SPD and CDU/CSU as wells as FDP and AfD tied, while ZDF had SPD and FDP respectively in the lead. Besides, the ARD Berlin exit poll (belongs to the state election thread, but still) was all over the place, having the Greens as largest party and overrating them by whooping 4.6 pts.
- INSA district projections. They were just OFF. INSA's district projections are worth as much as Zogby polls.
- Free Voters. 2.4 % is not a terrible result, but considering that most polls had them at 3 %, it's really an underperformance.
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