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palandio
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« Reply #800 on: June 11, 2021, 11:17:15 AM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.

AfD's leadership has always interested me somewhat as they've never really seemed to have one obvious, well-known leader.  This makes them quite different to other rightwing populist outfits who often coalesce around one leader.  For example Lega has Salvini, RN has Le Pen, UKIP had Farage, Chega has Ventura, Fidesz has Orban, PVV has Wilders, FPO had Haider, SD has Akesson and so on.  I know in the past AfD had Lucke and Petry but they weren't as well known as Salvini or Le Pen.  I wonder if it is in order to avoid comparison with you-know-who.
I don't think that it is in order to avoid comparison with you-know-who. At least not directly. German party law generally impedes coalescennce around one leader and this has of course partially something to do with you-know-who. The CDU tends to coalesce around the chancellor (when the chancellor is from the CDU) as long as he/she is strong. But even then the party structures can do their own thing against the explicit will of the leader when they deem it necessary (i.e. Kauder's deselection as caucus leader). The AfD is a party grounded in opposition towards what they deem to be "establishmentarian" and the German party law puts the party base in a strong enough position to impede any establishment of strong leadership. Petry in particular was not able to see this and tried to reform the party with herself in a Le Pen-like position. This was her demise. (Don't believe that she was more moderate than Meuthen or even Weidel...)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #801 on: June 11, 2021, 02:51:02 PM »

I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre. Wink

In "Look Who's Back" Hitler, repulsed at the NPD for aesthetic reasons, uses the Greens as his electoral vehicle.

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Astatine
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« Reply #802 on: June 13, 2021, 11:16:24 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2021, 04:38:25 PM by Astatine »

The elections in the electoral districts might not matter that much, as the seats gets allocated according to proportional representation with the list vote, buuut... They still decide who might make it into the Bundestag. Some candidates running in the districts are not part of the respective state lists and might not make it into the Bundestag else.

I will try to analyze some interesting districts and give them ratings. Some might be more or less interesting due to the candidates up for election (Potsdam for instance, where Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock are running against each other there).

I'll start with my home district - And encourage other German posters to do the same. Smiley

296: Saarbrücken

Basic data:
Population (2017): 270,000
Eligible population (2017): 205,000
Turnout (2017): 73.8 %

Past district voting patterns:
2002: SPD +17.7
2005: SPD +3.7
2009: CDU +1.4
2013: CDU +0.7
2017: SPD +0.7

Forecaster ratings:
INSA: SPD advantage <3 pts.
election.de:  Lean CDU (flip)
Wahlkreisprognose: Lean SPD

Major candidates:
 
Incumbent Bundestag member Josephine Ortleb (SPD) is running for a second term. Her first candidacy in 2017 resulted in one of the few, if not only, Social Democratic pickups of districts. Ortleb was member of the Saarbrücken city council before and made big efforts to win the district vote. She eventually beat the unknown CDU candidate Bernd Wegner - Both the incumbent CDU and SPD Bundestag members from district 296 chose to retire. Ortleb has kept a relatively low profile since.

She is going to face Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU), who is past the peak of her political career but still wants to play a role in federal politics. Her career had been steep: first female state interior minister in 2000, then various cabinet positions, Minister-President 2011-2018 (including her famous successful re-election bid in 2017), General Secretary of the CDU in 2018 and CDU leader 2018-2021. She has been Secretary of Defense since July 2019, and this is the make-or-break moment for what will be probably the last chapter of her political life. If she wins the district, AKK might still have a shot to get a cabinet position. If not, she is essentially done and will be remembered as a tragic figure who was once believed to be the next German Chancellor. Her advantage: AKK is well-known and probably still relatively popular.

Other candidates? Won't matter much. Greens are way too weak and unknown (Saarland is their weakest state party) to win the district and have some intra-party turmoils here. The candidacy of the Left Party will matter a lot, although the Left is not going to win district 296.

Introducing the district:
District 296 is a social democratic district at heart, but due to the Left Party's residual strength here (-> Oskar Lafontaine), CDU managed to pick it up twice, albeit by narrow margins (even in Merkel's landslide win in 2013).

The district is made of five towns and the Saarland state capital of Saarbrücken - I divided the latter into the 4 city boroughs for a better distinction. That's how many people turned out to vote in 2017 (I ignored the minor parties):

-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900
-Riegelsberg: hometown of then CDU candidate Bernd Wegner, suburban, many middle class households - 9,400
-Großrosseln: more of an industrial suburb - 4,800
-Völklingen: unionized, some suburban areas, but overall a "typical" working class town in which the SPD still has some residual strength - 18,200
-Kleinblittersdorf: boring middle class suburb - 7,000
-Saarbrücken-Halberg: borough encompassing some of Saarbrücken's middle-class suburbs - 14,700
-Saabrücken-West: quite similar to Völklingen, high unemployment, now stronghold of the Left Party and AfD, but also including some middle-class areas - 14,400
-Saarbrücken-Dudweiler: essentially a micro cosmos of the whole district - 14,000
-Saarbrücken-Center: downtown of Saarbrücken, including high unemployment areas, middle-class suburban neighborhoods, green-left alternative downtown (Greens performed strongest here) and really fancy mansion areas - 46,700
 
The raw district vote in 2017 (the list vote was won by CDU!):

SPD: 46,700 (32.1 %)
CDU: 46,600 (31.4 %)
Left Party: 19,300 (13.3 %)
AfD: 13,000 (8.9 %)
Greens: 8,800 (6.0 %)
FDP: 7,700 (5.3 %)

Total: SPD +1,100 (+0.7 %)

And the respective towns/boroughs produced the following margins (includes some rounding errors):

- Püttlingen: CDU +1,350
- Riegelsberg: CDU +1,000
- Großrosseln: SPD +250
- Völklingen: SPD +1,350
- Kleinblittersdorf: CDU +350
- SB-Halberg: CDU +600
- SB-West: SPD +1,000
- SB-Dudweiler: SPD +450
- SB-Center: SPD +1,350

Rating:
This district is as toss-uppy as a district could get in Germany. If the Left Party were not running, I'd expect the SPD to win this district relatively comfortably. The current federal and statewide crisis of the Left Party might be beneficial for the Social Democrats, but then, this development will probably be countered by the Greens, especially in the Saarbrücken boroughs (the Greens didn't get 5 % of the district vote in any of the neighboring towns).
But then again, the Greens lack the structure they have in other states over here, while both CDU and SPD still have a solid membership base. The Liberals' residual weakness here (FDP doesn't really have a base in Saarbrücken, most of them are dissatisfied Christian Democrats who still vote CDU for the district vote) might make a potential strong FDP result on federal level less harmful for AKK.

Gun to my head and I'd rate my district as Lean CDU (flip). Ortleb is not entrenched enough to have a sizeable incumbency bonus that would offset AKK's de facto incumbency bonus over here. Based on her district campaign manifesto, AKK seems to be trying to appeal to Green voters by making Environmental and Climate policy one of her three key issues. I definitely expect some CDU/Green ticket splitting.

As of now, my margin-wise expectation would be a result like this:

- Püttlingen: CDU +1,600
- Riegelsberg: CDU +1,200
- Großrosseln: SPD +100
- Völklingen: SPD +1,100
- Kleinblittersdorf: CDU +450
- SB-Halberg: CDU +800
- SB-West: SPD +550
- SB-Dudweiler: SPD +300
- SB-Center: SPD +750

Total: CDU +1,250 (+0.8 %)

The smaller towns will probably report first on election eve, so we might see a "black mirage". As SB center accounts for 1/3 of the total district vote (that's my borough, btw Smiley ), it will matter a lot (and report last in all likelihood). If AKK is underperforming in the suburbs on election eve, she's probably done. If SB-Center is flipping from SPD to CDU early on or the margin there is super tight, Ortleb is on track to lose this district (although she's almost safe in the Bundestag as #2 on the SPD list).
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S019
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« Reply #803 on: June 13, 2021, 11:21:49 PM »

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-greens-trouble-leader-annalena-baerbock-swears-scheisse-speech/, Politico with a decent, but brief article that details the Greens' recent missteps.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #804 on: June 14, 2021, 03:35:48 AM »



-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900
I always thought of Püttlingen as one of these typical industrial/post-industrial Saarland towns, because of anecdotes about the strength of the DKP there. Or did I mix something up?
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Astatine
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« Reply #805 on: June 14, 2021, 04:09:06 AM »



-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900
I always thought of Püttlingen as one of these typical industrial/post-industrial Saarland towns, because of anecdotes about the strength of the DKP there. Or did I mix something up?
Yes, you're not wrong, but it's not as industrial as Völklingen for instance. Nevertheless, out of all townships in district 296, Püttlingen delivered the best result for the Christian Democrats in 2017 (36.9 %). Blue-collar workers are more of an exception there nowadays, and the general structure of the town is typical Saarland suburbia (comparable to Riegelsberg).

The DKP strength was more of a local phenomenon. A union activist who was member of many clubs in Püttlingen was their leader there over many years and built up structures for the party. His name was Franz Hertel and he was member of the town council from 1968 until 2013 - He was the main reason the DKP was so strong. The local DKP never hesitated to cooperate with the CDU on local level, tho. Smiley Focussing on kitchen table issues..
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #806 on: June 14, 2021, 04:58:20 AM »

The compromesso storico at the Saar! ;-)
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beesley
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« Reply #807 on: June 14, 2021, 05:46:05 AM »

I hope Scholz really capitalises on everything he can - I actually think this election is a real chance for the SPD providing they keep the Greens down - hard when they fight different battles geography and demographics-wise.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #808 on: June 14, 2021, 02:49:18 PM »

I hope Scholz really capitalises on everything he can - I actually think this election is a real chance for the SPD providing they keep the Greens down - hard when they fight different battles geography and demographics-wise.

Yes, as the election nears and more people pay attention what's at stake, I continue to be an optimist. If Scholz conducts himself like he did today in an ARD interview, he's on a good path. He was very energetic, made detailed policy proposals and stressed his experience to get big things done. However, it's still an uphill battle. I feel like this could be a make or break moment for the party.
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buritobr
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« Reply #809 on: June 17, 2021, 08:02:33 PM »

Why is die Linke polling so bad?

I know that Sahra Wagenknecht has some views somehow similar to the far-right regarding immigration, private automobiles and the pandemic. Of course these views are not equal to the far-right, but she tries to appeal to people who could be AfD voters. But she is not the leader of the party anymore.
What is the problem of die Linke? Do the voters dislike Wagenknecht's views? Or is the problem the opposite: if her views were the views of the whole party, die Linke would poll better?
Or the problem is the conflict between the members who like and the members who dislike Wagenknecht's views?
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #810 on: June 18, 2021, 02:55:27 AM »

This follows basically years of infighting and stalemates between the several complex groupings inside the party. That does not help the messaging.
The demographic and structural demise in their Eastern strongholds isn't compensated numerically by the influx of left postmaterialist urban mileus whose members can also go to the Greens (and have other opitons too, like die Partei and so on) under the right (or wrong) circumstances. That's the long-term structural problem.

In the short term, the anti-Corona measures, where there wasn't a coherent message (Take that as you want, but the FDP was much better in their messaging of "We aknowledge that something has to be done, but these measures go to far, at least in the details and set the wrong prorities" which was similar to the Left's take. Some switched to the Greens as combating climate change becomes a higher priority and it is seen possible to not get a CDU man at the chancellor position. That the Left ist propagating hurdles the other potential partners can't take for a coalition - like: we demand to leave the NATO or we won't even negotiate - probably doesn't help too much, strategically.
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palandio
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« Reply #811 on: June 18, 2021, 11:03:01 AM »

Why is die Linke polling so bad?

I know that Sahra Wagenknecht has some views somehow similar to the far-right regarding immigration, private automobiles and the pandemic. Of course these views are not equal to the far-right, but she tries to appeal to people who could be AfD voters. But she is not the leader of the party anymore.
What is the problem of die Linke? Do the voters dislike Wagenknecht's views? Or is the problem the opposite: if her views were the views of the whole party, die Linke would poll better?
Or the problem is the conflict between the members who like and the members who dislike Wagenknecht's views?

Yeahsayyeah's answer is very good.

To answer your Wagenknecht-related questions directly: Some voters dislike Wagenknecht's views, some dislike that the party is moving against Wagenknecht, and some dislike the conflict.

But as Yeahsayyeah said, it's not this alone. The Left has severe structural problems. And as it has often been the case Wagenknecht (and Lafontaine) can detect that there is a problem but they have never been very good at solving problems.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #812 on: June 18, 2021, 03:00:06 PM »

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #813 on: June 18, 2021, 03:11:14 PM »

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.
Could the FDP justify supporting an SPD-led government?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #814 on: June 18, 2021, 03:26:00 PM »

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.
Could the FDP justify supporting an SPD-led government?

Yes, the FDP is more flexible than they were 10-15 years ago. Over most recent years, it became clear that they actually want to govern and actually have some good ideas on innovation and education. If there's no alternative to a trafficlight coalition, why wouldn't they? Of course SPD and Greens would have to make concessions like no major tax increases, but that's doable in my opinion.

Personally, I think this would be the coalition that Germany needs now. It combines social safety, bold action on climate and innovation while the CDU/CSU, plagued with scandals and tired of actually doing something real, desperately needs to spend some time in the opposition. At the same time, this coalition would persue a reliable, pro-EU and pro-Western foreign policy.
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Astatine
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« Reply #815 on: June 18, 2021, 03:26:28 PM »

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.
Could the FDP justify supporting an SPD-led government?
A traffic light coalition led by the Social Democrats - possibly. One led by Greens - doubtful.
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buritobr
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« Reply #816 on: June 19, 2021, 07:44:01 AM »

Are there educated young people in Germany who vote for the Linke because of the progressive views on cultural issues and not because of the socialism?

I asked because in Brazil, some educated young people vote for the PSOL (the Brazilian Linke) because of the progressive views on cultural issues.

But in Germany, it is possible to vote for the Greens, while in Brazil... the Greens are a shame
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palandio
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« Reply #817 on: June 20, 2021, 03:22:09 AM »

Socialism is maybe not the right word, but educated young people who vote for the Linke usually have clearly left-wing/progressive views on economic issues. The group that you describe wouldn't make a lot of sense in Germany for exactly the reasons that you mentioned.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #818 on: June 20, 2021, 07:39:50 AM »

An interesting question would be by what numbbers youngish educated people who want redistribution of wealth but are more "socially conservative" (for a lack of a better term) exist and whom they vote for. But even they probably think more in a classical liberal and individualistic societal framework or are quite religious.
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Astatine
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« Reply #819 on: June 20, 2021, 10:26:54 AM »
« Edited: June 20, 2021, 05:42:21 PM by Astatine »

Drama at the Saar, again.

Not trying to become too tenderesque by always posting about my home state, but if there is something going that might affect federal politics, I'd go for it.

The Greens are electing their state list for the federal election, but the state party is in complete disarray. The Greens here are divided between the wing around Hubert Ulrich, the former state party leader, and his opponents. Ulrich essentially has built up a large local party with many supporters (his local Greens account for around half of the membership base in the whole state), hence being heavily influential although he retired from the top position after the party fell out of the Landtag in 2017.

His influence led to the downfall of Green Party state leader Tina Schöpfer, who was defeated three times when she ran for the top spot.

Ulrich has just now been elected on #1 spot for the federal list, which is a violation of the Green Party statutes. The statutes state that the first spot is reserved for a woman, although the Saar state party was excepted from that rule (in compensation, #2 and #3 were reserved for women) until the last election, but now they have to follow the federal rules. The incumbent Green Party MP Markus Tressel opted to retire.

If a violation of party statutes (also regarding invitations to the party congress) is really the case, then the state party list might be invalidated and in worst case, if there is not enough time for another party congress until the list filing deadlines, the Greens might not even be allowed to run in Saarland, as they'd lack a list.
Which Ulrich would honestly deserve, lol.
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buritobr
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« Reply #820 on: June 20, 2021, 12:04:20 PM »

Although I disagree with some views of Sahra Wagenknecht, I cannot deny she is attractive
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #821 on: June 20, 2021, 01:52:54 PM »

Although I disagree with some views of Sahra Wagenknecht, I cannot deny she is attractive

Aw, more people to carry Tender’s mantle.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #822 on: June 20, 2021, 02:20:22 PM »

Drama at the Saar, again.

Not trying to become to tenderesque by always posting about my home state, but if there is something going that might affect federal politics, I'd go for it.


Nah, that’s actually relevant unlike Austriaposting was.
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Astatine
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« Reply #823 on: June 20, 2021, 04:42:22 PM »

Some more details on why exactly the results of the party congress of the Saar Greens might be invalidated:

The Green statutes require that the first spot on a list for an election has to be occupied by a woman. Only if no woman is elected to the top position, anyone can run for it (men and women).
In this case, Green state party leader Tina Schöpfer ran for the the position, but the delegates voted against her in three ballots, so she retracted her candidacy.

Now, the convention voted on whether the election for the first state list spot should be opened to anyone. The delegates decided to do this, so in the next ballot, former state party leader Hubert Ulrich ran against Jeanne Dillschneider, the state Green Youth leader who was nominated by the state party chairboard.

Ulrich defeated Dillschneider, but some delegates questioned the ambiguous party statutes. It's now up for interpretation whether a man can run for the first spot if all women that could potentially run have already denied interest in a candidacy or whether an election between a woman and a man is allowed according to the statutes. A female delegate claimed she would have intended to run, hence she might bring this up to intra-party arbitration.

Now, state party leader Schöpfer was heavily rejected by the delegates in the ballots for the next spots. The candidate for #2 was asked what she thinks of CO2 emission trading schemes and didn't know what that is, but was elected nevertheless as she got the backing of Ulrich.

She even replaced Dillschneider as deputy leader of the state party. The whole chairboard is now full of Ulrich confidantes, and humiliated party leader Schöpfer just opted to not run for re-election.

The statutes also state that the convention has to be presided by a woman for at least 50 % of the time, and as of now it remains questionable whether that happened. If intra-party arbitration finds the convention violating the statutes, it would have to be repeated which is close to impossible as the deadline for the federal election lists is the 19th of July. And as some time between the announcement and the convention is required by statutes as well, we could very well end up with the Greens only running in 15/16 states - something that has never happened before.

The whole convention could also be ruled valid, which would lead to an outburst among the younger members. So yeah, that's all a mess with only regional impact as of now, but it could potentially escalate.

For the German posters among us who might want to watch the live stream of this hilarious drama: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCkUSgphnh0
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #824 on: June 21, 2021, 06:18:29 AM »

Am i misunderstanding this, or did the FDP just say that while they would never tolerate Traffic Light under a Green PM, they would however do so under Scholz? 🤔
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