🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level) - Federal Election: 26 Sept. 2021
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President Johnson
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« Reply #800 on: June 10, 2021, 01:51:47 PM »

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #801 on: June 10, 2021, 01:59:30 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 02:04:25 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

And another poll is out - The Green honeymoon is over (for now):

Most importantly, this poll shows no majority for the 'traffic light' coalition (46-47) anymore, which leaves us with Black-Green as the default government. And this obviously means: Chancellor Laschet.

On the macro level, the Greens are still in a very comfortable position. Their participation in the next government is all but guaranteed (there are simply no other realistic options) and they are still polling 6-8 percentage points ahead of the SPD - indicating that they have consolidated their position as the new dominant center-left party.  

On the micro level, the decrease in support is annoying but entirely deserved. Not because there was any real scandal but because Baerbock made a series of tactical mistakes and failed to control the media narrative. Indeed, honeymoon season is over for now. But there is still plenty of time to recover, especially with the pandemic being on the wane and climate change getting more attention again.

Edit: One major advantage of the Greens was their unity and lack of intra-party infighting. It will be interesting to see what happens if Baerbock's approval numbers don't recover in time - will there be a 'Habeck would have been/is the better choice' argument?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #802 on: June 10, 2021, 02:02:34 PM »

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

Agreed, real question is can SPD benefit from decline or will most go to CDU/CSU.  Also interesting on media as in Canada where I live, it is opposite, Liberals get a free pass while Tories get raked for any mistake.  In US it is so partisan that most watch whichever network supports party they do (Fox News if Republican, CNN or MSNBC if Democrat) so it just hardens views of other side not damages.  UK somewhat like that with newspapers but less TV (If Conservative you have Daily Mail, Express, Sun, Telegraph while if Labour you have Guardian, Daily Mirror and to lesser extent Independent.  Financial Times and Economist lean Tory but more traditional type and less biased).  In UK in fact, whichever party Murdoch papers have endorsed has won in every election in last 40 years I believe.  They endorsed Tony Blair while Conservative other times.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #803 on: June 10, 2021, 02:05:32 PM »

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

Agreed, real question is can SPD benefit from decline or will most go to CDU/CSU.

Obviously CDU/CSU. And FDP to some degree. We can already see it in the polls.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #804 on: June 10, 2021, 02:15:16 PM »

Meanwhile in North Rhine-Westphalia: Members of the LINKE have officially put forward a motion to expel Sahra Wagenknecht from the party. Will now be discussed by the responsible party committees.

https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/wagenknecht-antrag-parteiausschluss-101.html

And according to the 'taz', the LINKE is even considering expelling both Wagenknecht and Lafontaine:

https://taz.de/Boykottaufruf-gegen-die-Linkspartei/!5773358/

It's getting clearer by the day that their brownish Querfront positions have no majority within the party. Still, that's what you call bad timing.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #805 on: June 10, 2021, 02:39:35 PM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

On the point of parties seemingly getting away with corruption and scandals I think it may be because those parties (Union, Tories, Liberals) are historically natural parties of government in their countries.  Therefore it's easy to dismiss their scandals as just typical govt behaviour.  I'm conscious I'm not articulating this very well. Smiley
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #806 on: June 10, 2021, 02:50:49 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 02:55:52 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.
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Astatine
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« Reply #807 on: June 10, 2021, 03:19:16 PM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

On the point of parties seemingly getting away with corruption and scandals I think it may be because those parties (Union, Tories, Liberals) are historically natural parties of government in their countries.  Therefore it's easy to dismiss their scandals as just typical govt behaviour.  I'm conscious I'm not articulating this very well. Smiley
Infratest Dimap usually rotates between different party politicians, for instance when parliamentary group and party leadership are different from each other, or when a party/parliamentary group has a "Doppelspitze" (two leaders). I believe they also polled Wissler's co-leader Hennig-Wellsow for the Left last time, but I am not completely sure (or maybe parliamentary group leader Bartsch).

FGW's methodology is completely unknown and allegedly the pollees are asked to rank the 10 most important politicians and grade them on a scale from -5 to +5. Sometimes politicians that weren't on the news or anything just randomly pop up on the list.
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buritobr
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« Reply #808 on: June 10, 2021, 04:04:45 PM »

The german parties have official colors and some coalitions receive the name of national flags according to the colors of the parties: Jamaica, Kenya and Germany. Other coalitions can receive the name of countries too.

Jamaica: black, green, yellow (CDU, Grüne, FDP)
Kenya: black, green, red (CDU, Grüne, SPD)
Germany: black, red, yellow (CDU, SPD, FDP)

Other coalitions
Angola: black, red (CDU, SPD = great coalition)
Bolivia: red, yellow, green (SPD, FDP, Grüne = traffic lights coalition)
Spain: red, yellow (SPD, FDP)
Portugal: red, green (SPD, Grüne)
Old Austria, House of Habsburg: black, yellow (CDU, FDP)
Ukraine: blue, yellow (AfD, FDP)
Brazil: green, yellow, blue (Grüne, FDP, AfD)
South Africa: black, red, yellow, green, blue (all the parties)

Of course I am talking only about the possible combination of colors and the national flags. I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #809 on: June 10, 2021, 04:33:20 PM »

I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre. Wink
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Astatine
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« Reply #810 on: June 10, 2021, 04:33:44 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 04:37:03 PM by Astatine »

The german parties have official colors and some coalitions receive the name of national flags according to the colors of the parties: Jamaica, Kenya and Germany. Other coalitions can receive the name of countries too.

Jamaica: black, green, yellow (CDU, Grüne, FDP)
Kenya: black, green, red (CDU, Grüne, SPD)
Germany: black, red, yellow (CDU, SPD, FDP)

Other coalitions
Angola: black, red (CDU, SPD = great coalition)
Bolivia: red, yellow, green (SPD, FDP, Grüne = traffic lights coalition)
Spain: red, yellow (SPD, FDP)
Portugal: red, green (SPD, Grüne)
Old Austria, House of Habsburg: black, yellow (CDU, FDP)
Ukraine: blue, yellow (AfD, FDP)
Brazil: green, yellow, blue (Grüne, FDP, AfD)
South Africa: black, red, yellow, green, blue (all the parties)

Of course I am talking only about the possible combination of colors and the national flags. I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.
I made a full list one time with actually established terms (Spain for instance would refer to SPD/FDP/Linke) in the deleted state elections thread, I luckily saved it Smiley :

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-blue)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G, Belarus (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)
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buritobr
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« Reply #811 on: June 10, 2021, 06:57:05 PM »

If coalitions can have name of fruits, the red-green coalition can be the watermelon coalition
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Astatine
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« Reply #812 on: June 11, 2021, 03:03:56 AM »

If coalitions can have name of fruits, the red-green coalition can be the watermelon coalition
If many parties are involved (not uncommon on local level), a broad variety of combinations (SPD+FDP+Greens+VOLT, SPD+FW+Greens+ÖDP+FDP...) is simply called a Rainbow coalition. Cheesy
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #813 on: June 11, 2021, 03:32:08 AM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.

AfD's leadership has always interested me somewhat as they've never really seemed to have one obvious, well-known leader.  This makes them quite different to other rightwing populist outfits who often coalesce around one leader.  For example Lega has Salvini, RN has Le Pen, UKIP had Farage, Chega has Ventura, Fidesz has Orban, PVV has Wilders, FPO had Haider, SD has Akesson and so on.  I know in the past AfD had Lucke and Petry but they weren't as well known as Salvini or Le Pen.  I wonder if it is in order to avoid comparison with you-know-who.
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« Reply #814 on: June 11, 2021, 07:07:35 AM »

I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre. Wink

In "Look Who's Back" Hitler, repulsed at the NPD for aesthetic reasons, uses the Greens as his electoral vehicle.
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palandio
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« Reply #815 on: June 11, 2021, 11:17:15 AM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.

AfD's leadership has always interested me somewhat as they've never really seemed to have one obvious, well-known leader.  This makes them quite different to other rightwing populist outfits who often coalesce around one leader.  For example Lega has Salvini, RN has Le Pen, UKIP had Farage, Chega has Ventura, Fidesz has Orban, PVV has Wilders, FPO had Haider, SD has Akesson and so on.  I know in the past AfD had Lucke and Petry but they weren't as well known as Salvini or Le Pen.  I wonder if it is in order to avoid comparison with you-know-who.
I don't think that it is in order to avoid comparison with you-know-who. At least not directly. German party law generally impedes coalescennce around one leader and this has of course partially something to do with you-know-who. The CDU tends to coalesce around the chancellor (when the chancellor is from the CDU) as long as he/she is strong. But even then the party structures can do their own thing against the explicit will of the leader when they deem it necessary (i.e. Kauder's deselection as caucus leader). The AfD is a party grounded in opposition towards what they deem to be "establishmentarian" and the German party law puts the party base in a strong enough position to impede any establishment of strong leadership. Petry in particular was not able to see this and tried to reform the party with herself in a Le Pen-like position. This was her demise. (Don't believe that she was more moderate than Meuthen or even Weidel...)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #816 on: June 11, 2021, 02:51:02 PM »

I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre. Wink

In "Look Who's Back" Hitler, repulsed at the NPD for aesthetic reasons, uses the Greens as his electoral vehicle.

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Astatine
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« Reply #817 on: June 13, 2021, 11:16:24 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2021, 04:38:25 PM by Astatine »

The elections in the electoral districts might not matter that much, as the seats gets allocated according to proportional representation with the list vote, buuut... They still decide who might make it into the Bundestag. Some candidates running in the districts are not part of the respective state lists and might not make it into the Bundestag else.

I will try to analyze some interesting districts and give them ratings. Some might be more or less interesting due to the candidates up for election (Potsdam for instance, where Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock are running against each other there).

I'll start with my home district - And encourage other German posters to do the same. Smiley

296: Saarbrücken

Basic data:
Population (2017): 270,000
Eligible population (2017): 205,000
Turnout (2017): 73.8 %

Past district voting patterns:
2002: SPD +17.7
2005: SPD +3.7
2009: CDU +1.4
2013: CDU +0.7
2017: SPD +0.7

Forecaster ratings:
INSA: SPD advantage <3 pts.
election.de:  Lean CDU (flip)
Wahlkreisprognose: Lean SPD

Major candidates:
 
Incumbent Bundestag member Josephine Ortleb (SPD) is running for a second term. Her first candidacy in 2017 resulted in one of the few, if not only, Social Democratic pickups of districts. Ortleb was member of the Saarbrücken city council before and made big efforts to win the district vote. She eventually beat the unknown CDU candidate Bernd Wegner - Both the incumbent CDU and SPD Bundestag members from district 296 chose to retire. Ortleb has kept a relatively low profile since.

She is going to face Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU), who is past the peak of her political career but still wants to play a role in federal politics. Her career had been steep: first female state interior minister in 2000, then various cabinet positions, Minister-President 2011-2018 (including her famous successful re-election bid in 2017), General Secretary of the CDU in 2018 and CDU leader 2018-2021. She has been Secretary of Defense since July 2019, and this is the make-or-break moment for what will be probably the last chapter of her political life. If she wins the district, AKK might still have a shot to get a cabinet position. If not, she is essentially done and will be remembered as a tragic figure who was once believed to be the next German Chancellor. Her advantage: AKK is well-known and probably still relatively popular.

Other candidates? Won't matter much. Greens are way too weak and unknown (Saarland is their weakest state party) to win the district and have some intra-party turmoils here. The candidacy of the Left Party will matter a lot, although the Left is not going to win district 296.

Introducing the district:
District 296 is a social democratic district at heart, but due to the Left Party's residual strength here (-> Oskar Lafontaine), CDU managed to pick it up twice, albeit by narrow margins (even in Merkel's landslide win in 2013).

The district is made of five towns and the Saarland state capital of Saarbrücken - I divided the latter into the 4 city boroughs for a better distinction. That's how many people turned out to vote in 2017 (I ignored the minor parties):

-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900
-Riegelsberg: hometown of then CDU candidate Bernd Wegner, suburban, many middle class households - 9,400
-Großrosseln: more of an industrial suburb - 4,800
-Völklingen: unionized, some suburban areas, but overall a "typical" working class town in which the SPD still has some residual strength - 18,200
-Kleinblittersdorf: boring middle class suburb - 7,000
-Saarbrücken-Halberg: borough encompassing some of Saarbrücken's middle-class suburbs - 14,700
-Saabrücken-West: quite similar to Völklingen, high unemployment, now stronghold of the Left Party and AfD, but also including some middle-class areas - 14,400
-Saarbrücken-Dudweiler: essentially a micro cosmos of the whole district - 14,000
-Saarbrücken-Center: downtown of Saarbrücken, including high unemployment areas, middle-class suburban neighborhoods, green-left alternative downtown (Greens performed strongest here) and really fancy mansion areas - 46,700
 
The raw district vote in 2017 (the list vote was won by CDU!):

SPD: 46,700 (32.1 %)
CDU: 46,600 (31.4 %)
Left Party: 19,300 (13.3 %)
AfD: 13,000 (8.9 %)
Greens: 8,800 (6.0 %)
FDP: 7,700 (5.3 %)

Total: SPD +1,100 (+0.7 %)

And the respective towns/boroughs produced the following margins (includes some rounding errors):

- Püttlingen: CDU +1,350
- Riegelsberg: CDU +1,000
- Großrosseln: SPD +250
- Völklingen: SPD +1,350
- Kleinblittersdorf: CDU +350
- SB-Halberg: CDU +600
- SB-West: SPD +1,000
- SB-Dudweiler: SPD +450
- SB-Center: SPD +1,350

Rating:
This district is as toss-uppy as a district could get in Germany. If the Left Party were not running, I'd expect the SPD to win this district relatively comfortably. The current federal and statewide crisis of the Left Party might be beneficial for the Social Democrats, but then, this development will probably be countered by the Greens, especially in the Saarbrücken boroughs (the Greens didn't get 5 % of the district vote in any of the neighboring towns).
But then again, the Greens lack the structure they have in other states over here, while both CDU and SPD still have a solid membership base. The Liberals' residual weakness here (FDP doesn't really have a base in Saarbrücken, most of them are dissatisfied Christian Democrats who still vote CDU for the district vote) might make a potential strong FDP result on federal level less harmful for AKK.

Gun to my head and I'd rate my district as Lean CDU (flip). Ortleb is not entrenched enough to have a sizeable incumbency bonus that would offset AKK's de facto incumbency bonus over here. Based on her district campaign manifesto, AKK seems to be trying to appeal to Green voters by making Environmental and Climate policy one of her three key issues. I definitely expect some CDU/Green ticket splitting.

As of now, my margin-wise expectation would be a result like this:

- Püttlingen: CDU +1,600
- Riegelsberg: CDU +1,200
- Großrosseln: SPD +100
- Völklingen: SPD +1,100
- Kleinblittersdorf: CDU +450
- SB-Halberg: CDU +800
- SB-West: SPD +550
- SB-Dudweiler: SPD +300
- SB-Center: SPD +750

Total: CDU +1,250 (+0.8 %)

The smaller towns will probably report first on election eve, so we might see a "black mirage". As SB center accounts for 1/3 of the total district vote (that's my borough, btw Smiley ), it will matter a lot (and report last in all likelihood). If AKK is underperforming in the suburbs on election eve, she's probably done. If SB-Center is flipping from SPD to CDU early on or the margin there is super tight, Ortleb is on track to lose this district (although she's almost safe in the Bundestag as #2 on the SPD list).
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« Reply #818 on: June 13, 2021, 11:21:49 PM »

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-greens-trouble-leader-annalena-baerbock-swears-scheisse-speech/, Politico with a decent, but brief article that details the Greens' recent missteps.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #819 on: June 14, 2021, 03:35:48 AM »



-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900
I always thought of Püttlingen as one of these typical industrial/post-industrial Saarland towns, because of anecdotes about the strength of the DKP there. Or did I mix something up?
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Astatine
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« Reply #820 on: June 14, 2021, 04:09:06 AM »



-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900
I always thought of Püttlingen as one of these typical industrial/post-industrial Saarland towns, because of anecdotes about the strength of the DKP there. Or did I mix something up?
Yes, you're not wrong, but it's not as industrial as Völklingen for instance. Nevertheless, out of all townships in district 296, Püttlingen delivered the best result for the Christian Democrats in 2017 (36.9 %). Blue-collar workers are more of an exception there nowadays, and the general structure of the town is typical Saarland suburbia (comparable to Riegelsberg).

The DKP strength was more of a local phenomenon. A union activist who was member of many clubs in Püttlingen was their leader there over many years and built up structures for the party. His name was Franz Hertel and he was member of the town council from 1968 until 2013 - He was the main reason the DKP was so strong. The local DKP never hesitated to cooperate with the CDU on local level, tho. Smiley Focussing on kitchen table issues..
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« Reply #821 on: June 14, 2021, 04:58:20 AM »

The compromesso storico at the Saar! ;-)
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« Reply #822 on: June 14, 2021, 05:46:05 AM »

I hope Scholz really capitalises on everything he can - I actually think this election is a real chance for the SPD providing they keep the Greens down - hard when they fight different battles geography and demographics-wise.
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« Reply #823 on: June 14, 2021, 02:49:18 PM »

I hope Scholz really capitalises on everything he can - I actually think this election is a real chance for the SPD providing they keep the Greens down - hard when they fight different battles geography and demographics-wise.

Yes, as the election nears and more people pay attention what's at stake, I continue to be an optimist. If Scholz conducts himself like he did today in an ARD interview, he's on a good path. He was very energetic, made detailed policy proposals and stressed his experience to get big things done. However, it's still an uphill battle. I feel like this could be a make or break moment for the party.
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« Reply #824 on: June 17, 2021, 08:02:33 PM »

Why is die Linke polling so bad?

I know that Sahra Wagenknecht has some views somehow similar to the far-right regarding immigration, private automobiles and the pandemic. Of course these views are not equal to the far-right, but she tries to appeal to people who could be AfD voters. But she is not the leader of the party anymore.
What is the problem of die Linke? Do the voters dislike Wagenknecht's views? Or is the problem the opposite: if her views were the views of the whole party, die Linke would poll better?
Or the problem is the conflict between the members who like and the members who dislike Wagenknecht's views?
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