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buritobr
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« Reply #775 on: June 08, 2021, 03:54:37 PM »

It is not a suprise the Linke would have an internal conflict. Die Linke is not exactly a party, in which there is a leadership recognized by all the members and a program supported by all the members. Die Linke is better described as a broad front in which many left-wing groups live under an umbrela, in order to survive the 5% barrier. It is natural that the internal factions have a conflict to control the party.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #776 on: June 09, 2021, 01:15:13 PM »

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?
Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

Comparatively privileged compared to whom? Workers in the Global South? Sure. To your university student friends? Doubtful.

To non-Germans, of course. What did you think?

But the point is not that they are privileged. The point is that being privileged (i.e. living in one of the wealthiest nations in Europe) and adhering to a toxic mix of nostalgia, racism, anti-intellectualism, and self-victimization is a problem. Just like the idea that one has an innate right to drive dirty cars is. Or the (even more stupid) idea that one doesn't need to care about discrimination, gender equality, and climate change because muh economic anxiety.

And catering to these people is a problem as well - at least for the LINKE. Zahlen lügen nicht as one would say in German. If the party wants to have a future, it has to change its strategy, reconsider its political preference structure, and get rid of those who sow discord and harm its electoral chances.

Starting with Wagenknecht and her red-brown ilk.
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buritobr
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« Reply #777 on: June 09, 2021, 03:39:39 PM »

The conflict working class issues vs minorities issues is silly
The working class is not only white. Minorities belong to the working class. Immigrants are workers.

Being anti-lockdown doesn't mean being pro-working class.
The conflict health vs jobs/income during the pandemic is silly. Countries that managed bad the health policies didn't have better economic performance.
Workers need an income guarantee when the spread of the virus is high. They don't need a "permission" to use overcrowded public transportation and have the contamination.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #778 on: June 09, 2021, 06:47:10 PM »

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?
Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

Comparatively privileged compared to whom? Workers in the Global South? Sure. To your university student friends? Doubtful.

To non-Germans, of course. What did you think?

But the point is not that they are privileged. The point is that being privileged (i.e. living in one of the wealthiest nations in Europe) and adhering to a toxic mix of nostalgia, racism, anti-intellectualism, and self-victimization is a problem. Just like the idea that one has an innate right to drive dirty cars is. Or the (even more stupid) idea that one doesn't need to care about discrimination, gender equality, and climate change because muh economic anxiety.

And catering to these people is a problem as well - at least for the LINKE. Zahlen lügen nicht as one would say in German. If the party wants to have a future, it has to change its strategy, reconsider its political preference structure, and get rid of those who sow discord and harm its electoral chances.

Starting with Wagenknecht and her red-brown ilk.

I agree that demanding the right to drive dirty cars while dismissing climate change and bigotry is a problem. However, in a democratic society working-class voters with less than up to date views on cultural issues not only will remain a significant electoral bloc for the foreseeable future but have a legitimate right to political representation. Nor is any scepticism of mass immigration or demands for changes in lifestyle to climate change in the context of deindustrialization and downward mobility simply bigotry and ignorance. After all, the upper middle classes of the developed world who preach these doctrines are generally in a much more privileged position and often do not practice what they preach either-taking trips by jet plane around the world.

It's better to me that such working-class voters be represented by the left that meets them half-way than a right-wing populist which promotes reactionary policies across the board. Considering the left around the developed world has been hollowed by the gentrification of their electorates, shouldn't Die Linke's strategy (as well as those of the SPD and Greens) be to change its strategy to appeal to its traditional electorate rather than doubling down on college educated voters?

But perhaps you and I simply have different visions of what the left should be. For me, republican egalitarianism and solidarity is at the core of any left that is worthy of being called left. Yet if we go by your post in the other thread, you appear to consider the FDP "egalitarian" because of its adherence to cultural liberal views and globalization, regardless of the fact their policies would massive increase economic inequality, whereas any left wing politics that does not fully embrace cultural liberal values is by definition "inegalitarian".
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #779 on: June 10, 2021, 09:23:30 AM »

Any proper "left" is left in both cultural *and* economic terms.

I am deeply suspicious of any claims to the contrary.
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Astatine
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« Reply #780 on: June 10, 2021, 10:02:01 AM »

First detailed post Saxony Anhalt poll and ouch:

Who is fit to serve as Chancellor (May vs. now):


Chancellor polling:


Approval ratings (-5 to +5; rank 10-6, Baerbock with significant decline):


Voting intention:


Preferred party to lead the next government:
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mileslunn
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« Reply #781 on: June 10, 2021, 01:16:24 PM »

Looks like Greens falling as they come under more scrutiny.  Interesting how Scholz polls high personally but party does much worse.  Does that usually change or are their other reasons.  I would say while Laschet may not be exciting, he is seen as a safe pair of hands which probably bodes well for winning.  Question more who is in coalition.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #782 on: June 10, 2021, 01:27:03 PM »

Sometimes I really don't get it anymore and it's quite frustrating. Baerbock having some issues with her CV is somehow a huge deal while CDU/CSU can get into one corruption scandal after another - whether it's the mask stuff, Amthor or Klöckner being bought and paid for by Nestle - a 500 million Euro waste with their stupid Ausländermaut (toll for foreigners) or the cross inaction on several key issues like rent and construction prices, climate and so on and they still gain points. And I'm not even a supporter of Baerbock and the Greens. If at least the SPD would benefit from that. It seems that the Union can get away with everything, while SPD and Greens lose support over having minor issues. Are people even paying attention?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #783 on: June 10, 2021, 01:29:18 PM »

Sometimes I really don't get it anymore and it's quite frustrating. Baerbock having some issues with her CV is somehow a huge deal while CDU/CSU can get into one corruption scandal after another - whether it's the mask stuff, Amthor or Klöckner being bought and paid for by Nestle - a 500 million Euro waste with their stupid Ausländermaut (toll for foreigners) or the cross inaction on several key issues like rent and construction prices, climate and so on and they still gain points. And I'm not even a supporter of Baerbock and the Greens. If at least the SPD would benefit from that. It seems that the Union can get away with everything, while SPD and Greens lose support over having minor issues. Are people even paying attention?

It seems in a lot of countries, people when unsure default to natural governing party.  In UK, same thing as Tories can get away with all kind of stuff Labour never could.  In Canada it is Liberals who hold this position while Tories and NDP who come under more scrutiny although in Alberta it was until recently that way with Tories.  I guess its people naturally feel at home in CDU/CSU so unless comfortable with others default to them.  Could be wrong, but that would be my guess.
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Astatine
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« Reply #784 on: June 10, 2021, 01:43:39 PM »

And another poll is out - The Green honeymoon is over (for now):





The full survey has Baerbock at a 60 % disapproval rating: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-2669.pdf
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President Johnson
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« Reply #785 on: June 10, 2021, 01:51:47 PM »

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #786 on: June 10, 2021, 01:59:30 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 02:04:25 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

And another poll is out - The Green honeymoon is over (for now):

Most importantly, this poll shows no majority for the 'traffic light' coalition (46-47) anymore, which leaves us with Black-Green as the default government. And this obviously means: Chancellor Laschet.

On the macro level, the Greens are still in a very comfortable position. Their participation in the next government is all but guaranteed (there are simply no other realistic options) and they are still polling 6-8 percentage points ahead of the SPD - indicating that they have consolidated their position as the new dominant center-left party.  

On the micro level, the decrease in support is annoying but entirely deserved. Not because there was any real scandal but because Baerbock made a series of tactical mistakes and failed to control the media narrative. Indeed, honeymoon season is over for now. But there is still plenty of time to recover, especially with the pandemic being on the wane and climate change getting more attention again.

Edit: One major advantage of the Greens was their unity and lack of intra-party infighting. It will be interesting to see what happens if Baerbock's approval numbers don't recover in time - will there be a 'Habeck would have been/is the better choice' argument?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #787 on: June 10, 2021, 02:02:34 PM »

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

Agreed, real question is can SPD benefit from decline or will most go to CDU/CSU.  Also interesting on media as in Canada where I live, it is opposite, Liberals get a free pass while Tories get raked for any mistake.  In US it is so partisan that most watch whichever network supports party they do (Fox News if Republican, CNN or MSNBC if Democrat) so it just hardens views of other side not damages.  UK somewhat like that with newspapers but less TV (If Conservative you have Daily Mail, Express, Sun, Telegraph while if Labour you have Guardian, Daily Mirror and to lesser extent Independent.  Financial Times and Economist lean Tory but more traditional type and less biased).  In UK in fact, whichever party Murdoch papers have endorsed has won in every election in last 40 years I believe.  They endorsed Tony Blair while Conservative other times.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #788 on: June 10, 2021, 02:05:32 PM »

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

Agreed, real question is can SPD benefit from decline or will most go to CDU/CSU.

Obviously CDU/CSU. And FDP to some degree. We can already see it in the polls.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #789 on: June 10, 2021, 02:15:16 PM »

Meanwhile in North Rhine-Westphalia: Members of the LINKE have officially put forward a motion to expel Sahra Wagenknecht from the party. Will now be discussed by the responsible party committees.

https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/wagenknecht-antrag-parteiausschluss-101.html

And according to the 'taz', the LINKE is even considering expelling both Wagenknecht and Lafontaine:

https://taz.de/Boykottaufruf-gegen-die-Linkspartei/!5773358/

It's getting clearer by the day that their brownish Querfront positions have no majority within the party. Still, that's what you call bad timing.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #790 on: June 10, 2021, 02:39:35 PM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

On the point of parties seemingly getting away with corruption and scandals I think it may be because those parties (Union, Tories, Liberals) are historically natural parties of government in their countries.  Therefore it's easy to dismiss their scandals as just typical govt behaviour.  I'm conscious I'm not articulating this very well. Smiley
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #791 on: June 10, 2021, 02:50:49 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 02:55:52 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.
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Astatine
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« Reply #792 on: June 10, 2021, 03:19:16 PM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

On the point of parties seemingly getting away with corruption and scandals I think it may be because those parties (Union, Tories, Liberals) are historically natural parties of government in their countries.  Therefore it's easy to dismiss their scandals as just typical govt behaviour.  I'm conscious I'm not articulating this very well. Smiley
Infratest Dimap usually rotates between different party politicians, for instance when parliamentary group and party leadership are different from each other, or when a party/parliamentary group has a "Doppelspitze" (two leaders). I believe they also polled Wissler's co-leader Hennig-Wellsow for the Left last time, but I am not completely sure (or maybe parliamentary group leader Bartsch).

FGW's methodology is completely unknown and allegedly the pollees are asked to rank the 10 most important politicians and grade them on a scale from -5 to +5. Sometimes politicians that weren't on the news or anything just randomly pop up on the list.
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buritobr
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« Reply #793 on: June 10, 2021, 04:04:45 PM »

The german parties have official colors and some coalitions receive the name of national flags according to the colors of the parties: Jamaica, Kenya and Germany. Other coalitions can receive the name of countries too.

Jamaica: black, green, yellow (CDU, Grüne, FDP)
Kenya: black, green, red (CDU, Grüne, SPD)
Germany: black, red, yellow (CDU, SPD, FDP)

Other coalitions
Angola: black, red (CDU, SPD = great coalition)
Bolivia: red, yellow, green (SPD, FDP, Grüne = traffic lights coalition)
Spain: red, yellow (SPD, FDP)
Portugal: red, green (SPD, Grüne)
Old Austria, House of Habsburg: black, yellow (CDU, FDP)
Ukraine: blue, yellow (AfD, FDP)
Brazil: green, yellow, blue (Grüne, FDP, AfD)
South Africa: black, red, yellow, green, blue (all the parties)

Of course I am talking only about the possible combination of colors and the national flags. I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #794 on: June 10, 2021, 04:33:20 PM »

I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre. Wink
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Astatine
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« Reply #795 on: June 10, 2021, 04:33:44 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 04:37:03 PM by Astatine »

The german parties have official colors and some coalitions receive the name of national flags according to the colors of the parties: Jamaica, Kenya and Germany. Other coalitions can receive the name of countries too.

Jamaica: black, green, yellow (CDU, Grüne, FDP)
Kenya: black, green, red (CDU, Grüne, SPD)
Germany: black, red, yellow (CDU, SPD, FDP)

Other coalitions
Angola: black, red (CDU, SPD = great coalition)
Bolivia: red, yellow, green (SPD, FDP, Grüne = traffic lights coalition)
Spain: red, yellow (SPD, FDP)
Portugal: red, green (SPD, Grüne)
Old Austria, House of Habsburg: black, yellow (CDU, FDP)
Ukraine: blue, yellow (AfD, FDP)
Brazil: green, yellow, blue (Grüne, FDP, AfD)
South Africa: black, red, yellow, green, blue (all the parties)

Of course I am talking only about the possible combination of colors and the national flags. I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.
I made a full list one time with actually established terms (Spain for instance would refer to SPD/FDP/Linke) in the deleted state elections thread, I luckily saved it Smiley :

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-blue)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G, Belarus (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)
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buritobr
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« Reply #796 on: June 10, 2021, 06:57:05 PM »

If coalitions can have name of fruits, the red-green coalition can be the watermelon coalition
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Astatine
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« Reply #797 on: June 11, 2021, 03:03:56 AM »

If coalitions can have name of fruits, the red-green coalition can be the watermelon coalition
If many parties are involved (not uncommon on local level), a broad variety of combinations (SPD+FDP+Greens+VOLT, SPD+FW+Greens+ÖDP+FDP...) is simply called a Rainbow coalition. Cheesy
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #798 on: June 11, 2021, 03:32:08 AM »

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.

AfD's leadership has always interested me somewhat as they've never really seemed to have one obvious, well-known leader.  This makes them quite different to other rightwing populist outfits who often coalesce around one leader.  For example Lega has Salvini, RN has Le Pen, UKIP had Farage, Chega has Ventura, Fidesz has Orban, PVV has Wilders, FPO had Haider, SD has Akesson and so on.  I know in the past AfD had Lucke and Petry but they weren't as well known as Salvini or Le Pen.  I wonder if it is in order to avoid comparison with you-know-who.
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« Reply #799 on: June 11, 2021, 07:07:35 AM »

I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre. Wink

In "Look Who's Back" Hitler, repulsed at the NPD for aesthetic reasons, uses the Greens as his electoral vehicle.
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