🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[buritobr]

Plagiarism is not the biggest crime of the history of the mankind. However, this allegation can hurt her image because since she is a new picture on the politics and many people don't know too much about her.
She is young and she doesn't have experience in the executive branch. She had a image of a wonderful person because she is a mother, a very intelligent girl who studied in the US and in the UK, an athlete, an expert in climate change. When the people see that this person they didn't know very much but they though was wonderful has allegation of plagiarism, they could think that she has more negative facts in her life that can become public.

Consider the example of Joe Biden: a plagiarism scandal hurt him when he was young, but now, it is only a small detail of his long life.
If Annalena Baerbock become the chancelor in the same age Joe Biden became president, she will become the chancelor in 2058. Probably, everybody would have forgotten the plagiarism allegations.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It is just so frustrating that serious corruption scandals just bounce off the CDU while any minor scandal seems to stick to the opposition.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

It is just so frustrating that serious corruption scandals just bounce off the CDU while any minor scandal seems to stick to the opposition.

Baerbock wants to come off like a smart, competent policy expert which makes plagiarism a no-go. Laschet has the advantage that no one seriously believed that he is competent in anything in the first place.

[Astatine]

Approval ratings:


Preferred Chancellor:


Those numbers aren't too bad for Scholz, but the SPD is still lagging behind in federal polling and preferred governmental party:

[President Johnson]

Come on, the SPD must try to make it about who's the best chancellor. Olaf Scholz can win this battle. But Laschet has definitely recovered from his disastrous nomination process. I'm still not convinced Söder will always stick to the script until September 26.

[President Johnson]

Greens continue slip, just 1% ahead of the SPD now. It's just mindboggling the Union has rebounded after all.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1412098184961265665

[buritobr]

If Annalena Baerbock becomes the Bundeskanzlerin, she will be the first leader of a G7 country born after the assassination of John Lennon. I remembered this event, because she was born one week after it.

Other events close to Baerbock's birth: Karol Wojtyla becoming Pope John Paul II, beggining of China reforms, Iranian revolution, Margaret Thatcher becoming british PM, FED rising interest rates, Reagan being elected

[President Johnson]

It's a slow trend, but SPD on verge to overtake Greens. If that continues, trafficlight coalition under Chancellor Scholz is at least a possibility. Scholz also leads Baerbock in chancellor preference and is tied with Laschet.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1413976350231343104

[buritobr]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

[President Johnson]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

Usually I prefer Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest Dimap the most. Latter is primarily used by the ARD. Forsa somehow always gets the SPD very poor numbers.

[Yeahsayyeah]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

Allensbach seems to have an outdated methology, has strange field operation times so that th, ey always seem to publish two weeks later, and has a notable pro-FDP bias

Kantar, FGW, and Infratest dimap seem fine

Forsa is always very bouncy, seems to seek data to fuel narratives, and has an anti-SPD bias despite the founder being an SPD member.

INSA is allegedly closer to the AfD, on the other hand their Bundestag poll numbers seem quite accurate.

I never really heard of GMS outside the wahlrecht.de poll list. And Yougov is a joke.

[Astatine]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

And Yougov is a joke.

I am member of the YouGov user database and actually INSA conducts at least some of their polls over YouGov. Some of the polls I took part in were clearly labeled as INSA polls.

Btw, the biggest joke pollster is still Civey. They only get away with their bullsh*t polling due to being partnered with several online news platforms (especially Spiegel), but their methodology is amongst the must dubious. Anyone can participate and the results are magically weighed according to personal data the user sets (zip code, gender, age). Interestingly, the daily Civey polling results (especially for state elections) change heavily after either Infratest or FGW dump a new poll.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Oh, It totally forgot about civey which I actually take as "Spiegel Online's folly" and not as a serious pollster. I wondered about this INSA/yougov pairing a lot.

As state election polls are concerned, there are a lot of newcomers, unknown and dodgy pollsters out there.

[Astatine]

The chaos surrounding the Saar Greens has reached its climax today, and it's more likely than not that the Greens will not be on the ballot in September in my home state.

This week, intra-party arbitration ruled the list is violating the party statutes as well as federal election rules. Party members who were not delegates but only represented the senior and youth wing took part in the list vote, which is not allowed according to federal law.

The alliance against Hubert Ulrich filed a motion for a party convention for tomorrow, which was first granted. Then, members of the chair board (Ulrich confidantes) refused to hold a vote on new party leadership, resulting in the resignation of the state party chairwoman, the general secretary and a deputy chairman.
Then, the federal Green arbitration court ruled that the delegates from Ulrich's local party, Saarlouis, are not allowed to vote on a state convention as their selection was intransparent - they're making up ⅓ of all delegates.  

As a reaction to this, the remaining chair board decided to just cancel the convention tomorrow. Theoretically, the federal chair board could force the Saar Greens to convene, but it remains unclear whether enough delegates would even show up.

So as of now, the Saar Greens just have a list that was ruled invalid already and would likely not get accepted by the state's electoral commission on Monday.
There is still a chance that the Greens just submit the old list with Ulrich at the top and it does get accepted by the electoral commission, or that an emergency convention tomorrow could still elect a list spontaneously. But as of now, it is highly likely that the Greens can only get elected in 15 states.

The Saar Linke also has issues with their list btw, not as severe as the Greens', but in an absolutely stunning scenario, both Linke and Greens wouldn't be on the ballot. Unlikely, but not completely impossible.

UPDATE: The national chair board indeed will try to force the state party to hold the convention. If the state chair board is taking steps against the federal decision or ignoring it, all of its members might get removed from their positions.

[Astatine]

The Saar Greens have elected a new top candidate - Green Youth chairwoman Jeanne Dillschneider. Seems like the issue is settled for now, although Ulrich supporters might still consider legal measures. Monday will tell whether the exclusion of Saarlouis delegates was legitimate.

[buritobr]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

Allensbach seems to have an outdated methology, has strange field operation times so that th, ey always seem to publish two weeks later, and has a notable pro-FDP bias

Kantar, FGW, and Infratest dimap seem fine

Forsa is always very bouncy, seems to seek data to fuel narratives, and has an anti-SPD bias despite the founder being an SPD member.

INSA is allegedly closer to the AfD, on the other hand their Bundestag poll numbers seem quite accurate.

I never really heard of GMS outside the wahlrecht.de poll list. And Yougov is a joke.

Yes, usually Kantar shows better numbers for SPD, Grüne and Linke, and Forsa shows better numbers for CDU and FDP https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

[President Johnson]

Armin Laschet currently under fire in social media networks as a camera captured him joking and laughing in the background while President Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke to reporters in flooded areas.

He clearly should have been more careful, but the attacks on him are a little off on my opinion.

[Continential]

I expect the Greens to do better in the polls because of the floods.

[buritobr]

No poll is showing the Linke in 6% anymore. Die Linke has between 7% and 8% now. The danger of not reaching 5% is decreasing.

[urutzizu]

There is a controversy as Helge Braun (CDU), Chief Cabinet Secretary and head of the Federal Government Pandemic Response calls for a obligatory vaccine pass system, similar to Greece, France, Italy etc, so only the vaccinated can enter Restaurants, Cinema, Stadiums etc. when cases rise. This is stricter than France, where a negative test (49€) is also enough. Armin Laschet says he is against. About 25% of Adults look likely to be at least sceptical about taking the Vaccine, so it is an important voting constituency although with diverse ideological leanings. However if cases rise sharply before the election (looks very possible) there will be a lot of pressure from the 75% to implement such a system as opposed to closures.

From politico: https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccine-pass-france-protests-germany/

[Astatine]

The list for the Greens in Saarland was officially rejected today because of several formal failures (exclusion of Saarlouis delegates etc.).
The list of the Linke for Saarland was accepted.

The AfD list in Bremen was also rejected for formal reasons.

Damn, has that ever happened before in Germany? Two major parties failing to submit valid lists?

[buritobr]

Since 1949, has the FDP already won a district? Or all the FDP representatives came from the party list, elected in the proportional election?

[Astatine]

Since 1949, has the FDP already won a district? Or all the FDP representatives came from the party list, elected in the proportional election?

FDP has won some districts directly in 1949 (party system was emerging) and 1953 (strategic alliance with DP and CDU/CSU) as well as one district each in 1957 (after reunification with Saarland, the FDP sister party DPS had run a key figure in the process in a district) and 1990 (candidate supported by reunification of GDR icon Genscher in Halle, Saxony Anhalt).

[President Johnson]

While the SPD just improves in a slow pace, Genosse Olaf starts pulling ahead in the polls for chancellor. In the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey, 34% prefer Scholz as chancellor, ahead of Laschet (29%) and Baerbock (20%). And that's even before Laschet's issue of plagiarism related to a 2009 book by him came out.

The trend is truly good news for the SPD as a whole, though we need to get better in messaging. If people want him as head of government, they need to vote for the Social Democrats. I think by the second half of August and into September we're going to have a clearer picture as voters beyond the political nerds start paying attention and folks are returning from vacation.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1422258708416016387