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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214065 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #825 on: June 21, 2021, 01:38:43 PM »

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Astatine
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« Reply #826 on: June 21, 2021, 03:31:09 PM »

Am i misunderstanding this, or did the FDP just say that while they would never tolerate Traffic Light under a Green PM, they would however do so under Scholz? 🤔
Kinda yes, although that's not official yet. I guess by announcing that in advance the least damage would be done to the party (compared to if potential coalition negotiations failed again due to the FDP).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #827 on: June 21, 2021, 03:36:27 PM »

Am i misunderstanding this, or did the FDP just say that while they would never tolerate Traffic Light under a Green PM, they would however do so under Scholz? 🤔
Kinda yes, although that's not official yet. I guess by announcing that in advance the least damage would be done to the party (compared to if potential coalition negotiations failed again due to the FDP).

For the record: The FDP ruled out a trafficlight coalition in Hesse after the 2018 elections under Green leadership, but was open under the SPD leadership. That became an issue after the final result was in doubt for some time as SPD and Greens were separated by just a few votes.

Obviously a Chancellor Scholz heading the government would be easier for the FDP since Scholz' economic policies are closer to them.
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Cassius
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« Reply #828 on: June 22, 2021, 10:32:14 AM »



Winnetou und Roter Olaf
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President Johnson
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« Reply #829 on: June 22, 2021, 03:21:06 PM »



Winnetou und Roter Olaf

Lmao, I didn't read about this, just that Genosse Olaf didn't know the current gas price (which the media is making some kind of story of).
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #830 on: June 23, 2021, 06:52:46 AM »

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.

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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #831 on: June 23, 2021, 07:13:16 AM »

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.



The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #832 on: June 23, 2021, 07:48:11 AM »

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.



The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.

Though given how they are polling, maybe not totally successfully?
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #833 on: June 23, 2021, 08:02:15 AM »

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.



The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.

Though given how they are polling, maybe not totally successfully?

Oh, of course not, as expected.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #834 on: June 23, 2021, 05:24:52 PM »

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.



The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.

Though given how they are polling, maybe not totally successfully?

Oh, of course not, as expected.

Seems like the junior party of the coalition (and I’m not talking CSU as a partner of the CDU here) always gets screwed, no matter what country.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #835 on: June 23, 2021, 05:47:16 PM »


Seems like the junior party of the coalition (and I’m not talking CSU as a partner of the CDU here) always gets screwed, no matter what country.

Not always, sometimes the Junior partner has the bigger persona and dominates the supposed leader of a coalition. See the M5S-Lega coalition for a comparatively recent example. There are also the times when the coalition partners are close enough ideologically and separated enough electorally that going into coalition is a forgone conclusion, and usually this leads to block-party alliances. A coalition governments actions in this scenario usually don't drastically impact polling for a individual party, but rather affects all members as a whole.
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buritobr
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« Reply #836 on: June 23, 2021, 08:51:32 PM »

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.



The SPD's platform has moved considerably leftwards in recent years on economic issues. They are basically saying, "This is what we would like to do, but the Union is blocking us". Party leadership tries to make a distinction between the SPD's action in the grand coalition and the SPD's platform - the heart and soul of the party.

One party, 2 different people.

The SPD who runs for the elections against the CDU is Superman. The SPD who is a junior partner of the coalition with the CDU is Clark Kent.
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windjammer
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« Reply #837 on: June 24, 2021, 03:31:09 PM »

Alright, I would be voting for the SPD!
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Astatine
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« Reply #838 on: June 25, 2021, 06:01:50 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2021, 06:40:09 AM by Astatine »

Saar Greens in continuous disarray:

After their tumultuous convention on Sunday, the Green Youth and several higher-ranking members announced their refusal to campaign for the Saar Greens. Annalena Baerbock condemned the result of the convention, stating she wished it would have been different, and the federal Greens won't cooperate with the Saar Greens during the federal election campaign (under the current conditions).

The General Secretary of the Greens has recommended the current list be withdrawn, so there could still be enough time to have another convention. If not, intra-party arbitration might result in an invalidation of the list, which would mean (as explained before): no Green list in Saarland (would change 0.1 % of the final result, maybe?), but also a slight to moderate damage to the Green brand (and here, where the first state election after the federal elections is going to take place, the Green brand is completely burnt now).

Well, yesterday a part of the convention live stream was leaked, and it is circulating on Twitter and has already reached national media. The candidate on the 2nd list spot, Irina Gaydukova, was asked three questions she could barely find an answer to ("What's your opinion of biking policy?"-"Positive, what else do you expect from a Green Party member?"; "How can social equality and environmental policy go hand in hand?"-"Do I have time to think about it"; "What do you think of the CO2 emission trading schema"-"..."-"You don't have to answer"). It's clear she was just put on the list by Ulrich to defeat the then-state party leader Tina Schöpfer, and no matter whether she had a blackout, the damage is done. The narrative of most news outlets about the convention is "Green elected a man on top spot, Baerbock wants this reversed, and the woman running on 2nd spot is incompetent".
@German posters here: If you want to understand more about the situation, I'd recommend the SR Online articles about the matter. The background and context of the full conflict is explained thoroughly and well there.

So today, the newly elected co-state party leader Ralph Rouget resigned after 5 days in office, together with a chairboard member. Gaydukova herself cut all ties from the party and ended her membership, resigned from her position as deputy leader and her seat on local level.
Now, with Gaydukova out, I am not sure whether the list in its current form could even be submitted (assuming she refuses to sign the official documents required for a candidacy) or whether a replacement candidate has to be elected (in a new convention) or if the candidates behind her just move up by one spot on the list – Which once again, would be against Green statutes, as men would occupy the uneven list spots.

It's just Saarland but that's definitely not something Baerbock would've wanted to be the dominating topic of the week with regards to news about her party.

Update: The woman running on the third spot of the list has just withdrawn from her candidacy.
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buritobr
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« Reply #839 on: June 27, 2021, 08:41:52 AM »

There is a chart of the average of the polls in the last 4 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

What did I observe:

The peak of May 2021 was not the first peak of the Greens. They had already a peak in July 2019 and also a fast decline after that (I don't know why it happened)

The CDU increases (decreases) when the Greens decrease (increase)

The SPD is doing bad, but it is stable at the 15% since mid 2020. The Linke is doing bad, but it is stable at the 7% since mid 2020

The FDP increased a lot in 2021

The AfD was stable since April 2020, but I don't know if they will increase after the knife attack in Wurzburg
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #840 on: June 27, 2021, 11:04:04 AM »

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #841 on: June 27, 2021, 03:14:30 PM »

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

There is no rule that the largest party must lead the government. They probably will be tasked first with forming a government, but if the other three parties have other ideas, then nothing the CDU does will stop a Traffic Light coalition. If Black-Green happens, it will be because both the CDU and the Greens chose to negotiate a government.
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palandio
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« Reply #842 on: June 27, 2021, 03:15:41 PM »

There is a chart of the average of the polls in the last 4 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

What did I observe:

The peak of May 2021 was not the first peak of the Greens. They had already a peak in July 2019 and also a fast decline after that (I don't know why it happened)
During the last years the Greens' voter potential has been quite high mostly due to the political salience of the climate change issue. Many of the new potential Green voters are quite fast to switch towards the Greens (e.g. the bandwaggon effect after their strong showing at the regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria in October 2018, the European elections in May 2019 and Baerbock's nomination some weeks ago) but also quite fast to turn away again. The steep decline of the Greens in March/April 2020 was due to a rally-around-the-flag effect in favor of CDU/CSU during the first COVID-19 wave.
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The CDU increases (decreases) when the Greens decrease (increase)
Which implies that there are a lot of CDU/Green swing voters.
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The SPD is doing bad, but it is stable at the 15% since mid 2020. The Linke is doing bad, but it is stable at the 7% since mid 2020
Yes, I don't say they can't do worse in the future, but for the moment they seem to have come near a structural minimum.
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The FDP increased a lot in 2021
I would attribute this to two factors: 1. The FDP's consistent messaging for a less restrictive COVID-19 policy (without denying the threat). 2. The CDU's and Laschet's difficulties during the last months.
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The AfD was stable since April 2020, but I don't know if they will increase after the knife attack in Wurzburg
I feel like public attention has moved away from that issue and that it probably won't help the AfD as much as it would have done in 2016, but I could be wrong. Many have failed at predicting potential AfD voters in the past, in every direction.
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palandio
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« Reply #843 on: June 27, 2021, 03:22:22 PM »

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

There is no rule that the largest party must lead the government. They probably will be tasked first with forming a government, but if the other three parties have other ideas, then nothing the CDU does will stop a Traffic Light coalition. If Black-Green happens, it will be because both the CDU and the Greens chose to negotiate a government.
Yes, "Who comes first?" is a question that is very important in German election psychology, but in the end it doesn't really matter. There have been many examples on the state level and even during the SPD-FDP coalitions between 1969 and 1982 the CDU/CSU was the strongest party except for 1972-1976.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #844 on: June 28, 2021, 04:23:48 PM »

Seems like Laschet has stablized the Union and turned the tide while the Greens continue to slip. Hopefully enough flock to the SPD for a trafficlight coalition under Olaf Scholz.

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buritobr
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« Reply #845 on: June 28, 2021, 05:43:37 PM »

Maybe, the attack in Wurzburg will not increase too much the popularity of the AfD, because those who think "these immigrants are attacking us using knife, we need the AfD" were already voting for the AfD.
What do the germans think?
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #846 on: June 29, 2021, 05:04:08 AM »

Maybe, the attack in Wurzburg will not increase too much the popularity of the AfD, because those who think "these immigrants are attacking us using knife, we need the AfD" were already voting for the AfD.
What do the germans think?

Agree. Besides that, the attack will be forgotten one week from now. One of many events that create headlines for one day or two but are completely meaningless in the long run.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #847 on: June 29, 2021, 09:05:59 AM »

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

There is no rule that the largest party must lead the government. They probably will be tasked first with forming a government, but if the other three parties have other ideas, then nothing the CDU does will stop a Traffic Light coalition. If Black-Green happens, it will be because both the CDU and the Greens chose to negotiate a government.

I'm aware the largest party doesn't automatically get the chancellorship. My question was more which govt was more likely in that event? I'd assume Greens would prefer a coalition with SPD and FDP if they get the chancellor and even if SPD was entitled to the position. But I thought FDP was more right-leaning?
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #848 on: June 29, 2021, 09:30:45 PM »

I have been following this more closely recent weeks, so I ask myself what happens if SPD+Greens+FDP have a majority, but CDU/CSU is the strongest party? Does that mean there's a CDU/CSU-Greens govt? Usually the party that finishes 1st gets the 1st chance to form a cabinet, but that's not a binding rule.

There is no rule that the largest party must lead the government. They probably will be tasked first with forming a government, but if the other three parties have other ideas, then nothing the CDU does will stop a Traffic Light coalition. If Black-Green happens, it will be because both the CDU and the Greens chose to negotiate a government.

I'm aware the largest party doesn't automatically get the chancellorship. My question was more which govt was more likely in that event? I'd assume Greens would prefer a coalition with SPD and FDP if they get the chancellor and even if SPD was entitled to the position. But I thought FDP was more right-leaning?

It really depends on the results and the coalition negotiations. But I still believe in Black-Green or, alternatively, 'Jamaica'. 

The FDP is obviously interested in governing, but joining a 'traffic light' coalition may appear as a Pyrrhic victory to its leadership. I have no doubt that they would work very well with both Greens and SPD - but also lose most of their former CDU/AfD voters who would cry 'foul'. Being the weakest party in a coalition with two larger center-left parties would also mean that they would have problems to pass their agenda.

The Greens should not be interested in a 'traffic light' coalition that does not include a Green Chancellor. Supporting a SPD Chancellor would be a major strategic mistake.

In turn, the SPD might not be interested in a 'traffic light' coalition that does not include a SPD Chancellor.
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Astatine
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« Reply #849 on: June 30, 2021, 12:25:16 PM »

After the Baerbock CV controversy, the failed Saxony-Anhalt state election, discussions about proposals of increased gas prices and the tumultuous Saar Green convention, the Green Party headquarter won't be too happy about a new controversy surrounding a book by Annalena Baerbock. She allegedly quoted texts from other authors without citing the sources.

The allegations are relatively weak, as her book is not a Ph.D. thesis or scientific work, but the medial reception is still there and that's not something I'd want the week to start with if I were Annalena Baerbock.
Supposedly, she included content from the website of the Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (BpB, Federal Agency for Civic Education) in her book and according to the BpB, excerpts from their website need to be cited with the corresponding source.

This story is one of several small ones that combined altogether are probably going to hurt her reputation. Yeah, it's nothing too serious, but again, we're in the race for the most influential office in Germany and her response to most of the controversies surrounding her didn't appear to be very professional.
I wouldn't be too surprised if we'll see some polls with the SPD overtaking the Greens (maybe only narrowly and it could be occasional outliers), but I guess - if the CDU/CSU alliance doesn't make any substantial mistakes - the race for the first spot is probably over. There's not one week without at least some negative press for the Greens, and with the Saar Green issue still unresolved, this streak might continue.
The whole Hubert Ulrich affair completely overshadowed the Green response to the CDU/CSU election manifesto last week for instance.
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