🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[rob in cal]

  The FDP might play a big role if their support level can keep up. Any sense of what either the party leadership and Bundestag faction and actual FDP voters feel about what type of coalition they should try for.  I would guess the typical FDP voter would rather have their party backing a Laschet type leader over a Baerbock.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

It may be the first time FDP have polled level with the SPD, but pretty sure they have scored above 14% in the past - what is their highest ever figure?

Their absolute peak result was 18 % at the beginning of 2009. If their polling numbers remain as good as currently, they might get a record result in November, but I doubt that their polling record will be broken.

Is there a good chance SSW wins a seat out of Schleswig-Holstein? Just learned today they were contesting the federal election

No, this will not happen. The SSW has a statewide support of what, 3 to 4 percent? They did not even win a district in the state election. Federal election districts are much larger, so it would be even harder for the SSW to win a seat.

It could very well happen, because SSW is excepted from the five percent threshold at federal level and would just need to cross the "natural" threshold that comes with the Sainte-Lague seat calculation. The natural threshold according to the D'Hondt method would be 1/598, so 0.167 % (with that percentage, they would be absolutely safe to get a seat). As Sainte-Lague is calculated with divisors of 0.5, 1.5, etc., half of the D'Hondt divisor - 0.083 % - could be enough to get a seat.

Assuming 47 million people go to the polls this year (last time it was 46.5 million), about 40,000 votes are needed to have a realistic shot at winning a seat (and 80,000 to have a seat definitely safe).
SSW got 32,000 votes in the last state elections. Assuming SSW gets 3 % in Schleswig-Holstein with a raw turnout of 1.7 million people (it was 1.73 million in 2017), the party would have 51,000 raw votes, which would probably be enough. Plus, due to an increased size of the Bundestag, the natural threshold might actually be lower.

So as of now, I'd say it's more likely than not that the SSW will get a seat in the Bundestag. I think we need some federal Schleswig-Holstein state polls, it could very well be the case that the fact SSW is running and is excepted from the threshold simply fell under the pollsters' radar.

Ah, didn't know that they were also exempt from the federal threshold. Thanks.

[Alcibiades]

Why are the FDP surging? I know that they initially took a hit in the polls after the 2017 election because of Lindner’s antics in the coalition talks.

Also, what are the rules on exemptions from the 5% threshold, and what other parties are exempt? I assume it is something to do with national minorities.

[Astatine]

  The FDP might play a big role if their support level can keep up. Any sense of what either the party leadership and Bundestag faction and actual FDP voters feel about what type of coalition they should try for.  I would guess the typical FDP voter would rather have their party backing a Laschet type leader over a Baerbock.

Why are the FDP surging? I know that they initially took a hit in the polls after the 2017 election because of Lindner’s antics in the coalition talks.

Also, what are the rules on exemptions from the 5% threshold, and what other parties are exempt? I assume it is something to do with national minorities.

Regarding FDP, as a formerly active party member who almost quit after the Thuringia crisis, I can tell you more about that.

- There is a large overlap between CDU and FDP voting base, mostly middle class (FDP voters tend to be younger, CDU voters are usually older, and there are some slight differences too like the FDP being a more urban party while CDU is stronger in rural areas). In elections until ~2013 when there really was a division into a CDU/FDP and an SPD/Greens camp, you really could see this strong pattern: In the 2013 federal election, the CDU gained about as many percentage points as the FDP lost. You'll see this pattern in many state elections well until then.

- This partially explains some tendencies: During the rally-around-the-flag CDU polling bump, the FDP was polling close to the five percent threshold (especially due to the Thuringia debacle, but also because the liberals' move to withdraw their support for the government's Covid policy was seen critical by many as there was broad support for it). Now, with the CDU chancellor candidate crisis, the mask affairs and a growing dissatisfaction with the government's Covid policy, the FDP logically attracts many who would support the CDU otherwise.

- The FDP found a comfortable niche in their position regarding Covid by opposing the consensus regarding stricter measures (such as the curfew) while not denying the risks of Covid (as the AfD does) and supporting quicker vaccinations or better digital infrastructure for instance. Their focus on digitalization since their re-branding paid off as that's a topic that moved more to center of attention right now.

- Nevertheless, this still means the support for the Free Democrats is extremely volatile right now as their current support is mostly relying on voters that would support the CDU else (some SPD maybe). They might have a core base of 4-6 % nationwide, but are 2nd choice for a lot of people who are currently dissatisfied with the party they usually support.

That said, there is a discrepancy between the course of the party leadership and the preferences of the party base and voters. The party leadership is officially open for any coalitions with CDU, SPD and Greens and the Jamaica debacle is mostly forgiven and both the leadership as well as the majority of the members view it positively that the FDP "didn't give up on their principles".

Still, there are large parts of the current voter base and the members that are vehemently opposed against any coalition with the Green party, especially with a Green chancellor. I know about one Bundestag member who already stated that a traffic light coalition under a Green chancellor is very unlikely, as it might fail among the party members (in 2017, it was planned that the FDP members would vote on whether to approve of a potential Jamaica coalition treaty). If the FDP goes into government with Greens, they inevitably will lose voters to the CDU. If they don't when it's mathematically possible, some of the more pragmatic voters (especially the younger base which contributed to the relatively good results in recent elections) will turn their back against the FDP. No matter what happens, the current voter coalition is extremely volatile and likely to collapse after the election. The "best" outcome for the FDP to stabilize their support would be a Black-Green/Green-Black coalition with a traffic light coalition failing to achieve a majority.

Regarding the parties exempt from the threshold, that only counts for parties that are recognized to represent minorities. As of now, that's the SSW (Danes/Frisians) on both federal and state level in Schleswig-Holstein, the Lausitz Alliance (Sorbians) on federal and state level in Brandenburg and the Frisian Party (Frisians) on federal level. Besides SSW in the early stages of the republic, no minority party has ever run in federal elections, as still a good chunk of voters in necessary to obtain a seat. The SSW is the only minority party that ever had success on statewide level, the Frisians are not recognized as minority party in Lower Saxony and the Lausitz Alliance not in Saxony (in Brandenburg tho, but iirc, they messed up with the registrations for the last state elections).
Theoretically, a Sinti and Roma party could be founded to represent them, as this the sole other nationally recognized minority.

Btw, there is still another way to avoid the five threshold. By winning three districts, a party is being treated if it took the threshold. This happened several times: PDS (predessor of the Left Party) in 1994, DP in 1957 and DP and Center Party in 1953.
This might actually be important for September, because the Left Party is dangerously close to the five percent threshold and in worst case, they would need to rely on winning three districts somewhere in Eastern Germany, which is very likely. I doubt they'll fall under five percent, but the Left definitely faces some problems right now.

[Yeahsayyeah]

No, this will not happen. The SSW has a statewide support of what, 3 to 4 percent? They did not even win a district in the state election. Federal election districts are much larger, so it would be even harder for the SSW to win a seat.

But they don't have to. They are exempt from the five percent threshold in federal elections, too, by an agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and Denmark in the fifties about mutual minority protection. And there is an according clause in the election law exempting parties of recognized national minorities, which would basically mean Danes and Sorbs, from the five per cent threshold.

But until now the SSW choose not to use it. So they maybe would only need about 0,15 per cent of the list votes to reach the Bundestag with one deputy. 3 to 4 per cent in Schleswig-Holstein could be enough if you look at the population figures as a rough estimate (I didn't bother with non-eligible population and turnout differntials). I also don't know if they would be eligible for compensation seats if there are overhang seats and they don't get their seat right away from the "normal" 598.

[Astatine]

I just found this nice statistical model which is quite similar to FiveThirtyEight:

https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/de/

Here is some more information about it, including the source code:

https://github.com/INWTlab/lsTerm-election-forecast/

[Alcibiades]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

Its certainly striking how little they seems to be benefiting from the SPD's woes.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

Its certainly striking how little they seems to be benefiting from the SPD's woes.

No reason why they should when there is a Green candidate with a realistic shot at the Chancellorship.

Most SPD voters (and members) don't have a particularly strong affinity with the Linke. Especially not in Western Germany. Those who did already left the party in 2005.

[Astatine]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

The Left Party is currently holding five districts, and most district prediction suggest they might lose 2 of those, but it seems more likely than not that the Left will win the three districts necessary to achieve parliamentary representation:





(http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?map=210521)

There is also another prognosticator for districts, but their methodology seems extremely ominous (they allegedly do polling but there is no information about it, and wahlrecht.de which is the database for reputable polls doesn't list them):

https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/trends-im-bund/

Their forecast has some questionable results like FDP winning a district directly as well as SPD unseating two incumbents in my home state (which I consider unlikely, I might do a short district analysis for some states shortly ahead of the election ).

[Flyersfan232]

If the current polls hold, and the next election yields a 26-22-16-12-12-6 type scenario, would a black green coalition be the most likely outcome? Would the CDU prefer that over a Germany coalition? And if the votes were there, would the FDP prefer a Germany or a traffic light coalition? How do  FDP and SPD feel about a Germany coalition?

I think the SPD will avoid a coalition with the Union at all costs, and if not, it would prove that it has well earned its downfall.

What about with the greens

[Logical]

Funniest outcome would be a 4 way Union/Greens/SPD/FDP pile up at 20% with AFD at 10 and Linke at 6.

Just imagine the wacky district maps.

[Conservatopia]

Something I've always wondered is why do the FDP never seem to get any direct mandates?  Do they not target the direct seats or are they just screwed by having a relatively evenly distributed vote base like our LolDems?

[President Johnson]

Something I've always wondered is why do the FDP never seem to get any direct mandates?  Do they not target the direct seats or are they just screwed by having a relatively evenly distributed vote base like our LolDems?

They don't have a specific bastion where it's likely to win a direct mandate. That's different with Die Linke and of course AfD and Greens. In past election cycles, a lot of local FDP chapters informally endorsed CDU candidates while asking for the second vote (which is for the party, while the first is for a local candidate).

[Astatine]

Something I've always wondered is why do the FDP never seem to get any direct mandates?  Do they not target the direct seats or are they just screwed by having a relatively evenly distributed vote base like our LolDems?

They don't have a specific bastion where it's likely to win a direct mandate. That's different with Die Linke and of course AfD and Greens. In past election cycles, a lot of local FDP chapters informally endorsed CDU candidates while asking for the second vote (which is for the party, while the first is for a local candidate).

Yeah, the only times the FDP won districts directly were either due to CDU/DP not running candidates in selected districts to ensure a broad majority for the coalition or because of strong personal appeals (Halle in 1990 was the hometown of FDP leader Genscher and he heavily campaigned for the local candidate, Saarbrücken in 1957 was represented by a key proponent of Saar/Germany reunification).

[YL]

Something I've always wondered is why do the FDP never seem to get any direct mandates?  Do they not target the direct seats or are they just screwed by having a relatively evenly distributed vote base like our LolDems?

They don't have a specific bastion where it's likely to win a direct mandate. That's different with Die Linke and of course AfD and Greens. In past election cycles, a lot of local FDP chapters informally endorsed CDU candidates while asking for the second vote (which is for the party, while the first is for a local candidate).

And with the German electoral system of course there isn't the motivation the Lib Dems have to try to develop the areas of local strength necessary to win direct mandates.

(I'm not convinced the parties are really that similar, anyway, other than in their approximate level of support.)

[Astatine]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

[CumbrianLefty]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

[Astatine]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

[President Johnson]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

I wouldn't say the overall left or center-left is in disarray because of this result. Obviously a ton of SPD, Left and Green voters switched to the CDU as polls and the media indicated the election could be a tossup between CDU and AfD.

However, Wagenknecht gave a very good analysis in Anne Will's talkshow yesterday, that left-wing politics are more associated with wokeness, political correctness, academic elites and forced multiculturalism and not so much about improving the lives of average people. This pretty much is true, at least center-left and left-wing parties are more associated with the former than the latter, even if it's not always objectively true. This seems to be an international phenomena and also applies to the Democratic Party in the US or Labor in the UK.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

[Astatine]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

I wouldn't say the overall left or center-left is in disarray because of this result. Obviously a ton of SPD, Left and Green voters switched to the CDU as polls and the media indicated the election could be a tossup between CDU and AfD.

However, Wagenknecht gave a very good analysis in Anne Will's talkshow yesterday, that left-wing politics are more associated with wokeness, political correctness, academic elites and forced multiculturalism and not so much about improving the lives of average people. This pretty much is true, at least center-left and left-wing parties are more associated with the former than the latter, even if it's not always objectively true. This seems to be an international phenomena and also applies to the Democratic Party in the US or Labor in the UK.

I am sorry for confusion, with "Left" I meant the Left Party only. I should have referred to the party as Linke or Left Party.

[H. Ross Peron]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

Comparatively privileged compared to whom? Workers in the Global South? Sure. To your university student friends? Doubtful.

[H. Ross Peron]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

I wouldn't say the overall left or center-left is in disarray because of this result. Obviously a ton of SPD, Left and Green voters switched to the CDU as polls and the media indicated the election could be a tossup between CDU and AfD.

However, Wagenknecht gave a very good analysis in Anne Will's talkshow yesterday, that left-wing politics are more associated with wokeness, political correctness, academic elites and forced multiculturalism and not so much about improving the lives of average people. This pretty much is true, at least center-left and left-wing parties are more associated with the former than the latter, even if it's not always objectively true. This seems to be an international phenomena and also applies to the Democratic Party in the US or Labor in the UK.

Nor is Wagenknecht simply engaging in "Horseshoe Theory" politics where she attacks the liberal centre while coddling the far-right. Here she denounces the AfD is Saxony-Anhalt for tolerating neo-Nazi elements such as those making Holocaust jokes about Anne Frank.

https://twitter.com/SWagenknecht/status/1401860230049406983

[President Johnson]

Baerbock is currently in hot water for making "corrections" in her Curriculum Vitae on her website. She had to correct two items, one relating to her work as chief of staff to a member of the European Parliament. Remains to be seen how much it hurts, but press coverage on her has grown more critical in recent days and weeks. She was already criticized for not reporting payments of over 20k € in time from her tenure as party leader.