🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Tender Branson]

I just read about it.

Quite ironic that the female Ministers for Family in both Austria & Germany stepped down this year. Both because of plagiarism allegations.

[buritobr]

Annalena Baerbock is criticized because she doesn't have experience in the executive branch. She was never a mayor, governor or minister. She was only a representative, in the legislative branch.
But Jair Bolsonaro had no experience in Brazil before being president. He was never a mayor, governor or minister. He was only a representative.

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.
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Oh, not a good comparison...

[Astatine]

2nd poll out that has numbers for the Free Voters. FGW sees them at 3 %.

[Tender Branson]

Baerbock (Greens) more and more in trouble ...

https://www.derbund.ch/auf-einmal-macht-baerbock-fehler-258960547400

Problems with properly declaring 30.000€ in bonus payments, questions about her Masters degree without acquiring a Bachelor degree, a nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course) ... Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baerbock (Greens) more and more in trouble ...

https://www.derbund.ch/auf-einmal-macht-baerbock-fehler-258960547400

Problems with properly declaring 30.000€ in bonus payments, questions about her Masters degree without acquiring a Bachelor degree, a nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course) ... Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.

It's a very curious thing though... for about three years there has been no significant scandal involving either Baerbock or the Greens. But now, a new scandal seems to surface every four days or so, while the CDU looks squeaky clean.

Well, maybe it's not that curious. Since 2009 this is the fourth Bundestag election in a row where I happen to work for or with the Greens in some capacity and by now I'm recognizing the patterns that have been repeating themselves every single time. As soon as the election campaign starts, BILD and FOCUS are packing out the big guns. And even if some of the "scandals" have basis they seem to have been collected over the past couple years with the apparent intention of a timed release during the election year.

But let's gets through the media-type events that Tender has mentioned above.

- Failing to declare 30.000€ 25.000 € in (primarily Christmas) bonus payments. This one is the objectively worst of the accusations and probably the first one where I would concede that it has some grounds to be concerned, outraged or whatever. While not a total career-ending catastrophe, it is certainly led to Baerbock's worst week since she became Chancellor-candidate (and maybe party chair as well). Normally I would be a lot more outraged about it myself, but since it is obviously part of a coordinated media campaign which also happens to contain a lot of bullsh**t stories it sort of gets cancelled out by the noise where your humble narrator is concerned.

- "Questions about her master's degree without acquiring a bachelor's degree":
Nothingburger artificially inflated by the aforementioned media. She obtained a Vordiplom in Germany to get a master's degree in England, because at that time bachelor's degree were still uncommon in our country. Completely standard procedure back then to count a German Vordiplom as a substitute for a bachelor. If there have ever been any "questions" about it, there are obviosuly by now resolved... a week later.

-  "A nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course)":
I'd rather call it a lame joke. More importantly, the video of that joint interview is already a couple of years old. I wonder why it happens to penetrate the Internet now... and to carry on from the paragraph above, Baerbock holds a Master of Laws in Public International Law from the London School of Economics, so trying to continue to ride that horse borders on deliberately spreading misinformation IMO.

- "Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.":
But have you forgotten already that Habeck literally wrote in a book once that Germany makes him puke ?? (at least that would be one of the main stories right now had he become the Greens' Chancellor-candidate)

The following blog has a good (albeit German-language) editorial on the new "Baerbock is a corrupt, Stalinist devil" phenomenon. It starts out as a satire of the BILD's (and CDU/CSU's) discrediting strategies before turning to a more serious analysis of recent events. Notably it also goes out of its way in pointing out that Baerbock has been treated rather fairly by the FDP so far - primarily it's the CSU and to a lesser extent the CDU which generously picks up any fake (or half-fake) news and runs with it:

https://www.volksverpetzer.de/satire/baerbock-muesli/

Personally, I'm counting the days until Baerbock is finally accused of running a child slavery ring out of a pizzeria in Berlin or something.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting developments in the latest MV poll.

In MV, there's some ticket splitting going on - according to Infratest dimap.

MV has state elections together with the federal election and while the MV-SPD drops by 8 points in the state election, it gains 3 points in the federal election ...

https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/Vor-der-Landtagswahl-Umfrage-sieht-SPD-als-groessten-Verlierer,wahlumfrage840.html

[Aurelio21]

Baerbock (Greens) more and more in trouble ...

https://www.derbund.ch/auf-einmal-macht-baerbock-fehler-258960547400

Problems with properly declaring 30.000€ in bonus payments, questions about her Masters degree without acquiring a Bachelor degree, a nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course) ... Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.

It's a very curious thing though... for about three years there has been no significant scandal involving either Baerbock or the Greens. But now, a new scandal seems to surface every four days or so, while the CDU looks squeaky clean.

Well, maybe it's not that curious. Since 2009 this is the fourth Bundestag election in a row where I happen to work for or with the Greens in some capacity and by now I'm recognizing the patterns that have been repeating themselves every single time. As soon as the election campaign starts, BILD and FOCUS are packing out the big guns. And even if some of the "scandals" have basis they seem to have been collected over the past couple years with the apparent intention of a timed release during the election year.

But let's gets through the media-type events that Tender has mentioned above.

- Failing to declare 30.000€ 25.000 € in (primarily Christmas) bonus payments. This one is the objectively worst of the accusations and probably the first one where I would concede that it has some grounds to be concerned, outraged or whatever. While not a total career-ending catastrophe, it is certainly led to Baerbock's worst week since she became Chancellor-candidate (and maybe party chair as well). Normally I would be a lot more outraged about it myself, but since it is obviously part of a coordinated media campaign which also happens to contain a lot of bullsh**t stories it sort of gets cancelled out by the noise where your humble narrator is concerned.

- "Questions about her master's degree without acquiring a bachelor's degree":
Nothingburger artificially inflated by the aforementioned media. She obtained a Vordiplom in Germany to get a master's degree in England, because at that time bachelor's degree were still uncommon in our country. Completely standard procedure back then to count a German Vordiplom as a substitute for a bachelor. If there have ever been any "questions" about it, there are obviosuly by now resolved... a week later.

-  "A nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course)":
I'd rather call it a lame joke. More importantly, the video of that joint interview is already a couple of years old. I wonder why it happens to penetrate the Internet now... and to carry on from the paragraph above, Baerbock holds a Master of Laws in Public International Law from the London School of Economics, so trying to continue to ride that horse borders on deliberately spreading misinformation IMO.

- "Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.":
But have you forgotten already that Habeck literally wrote in a book once that Germany makes him puke ?? (at least that would be one of the main stories right now had he become the Greens' Chancellor-candidate)

The following blog has a good (albeit German-language) editorial on the new "Baerbock is a corrupt, Stalinist devil" phenomenon. It starts out as a satire of the BILD's (and CDU/CSU's) discrediting strategies before turning to a more serious analysis of recent events. Notably it also goes out of its way in pointing out that Baerbock has been treated rather fairly by the FDP so far - primarily it's the CSU and to a lesser extent the CDU which generously picks up any fake (or half-fake) news and runs with it:

https://www.volksverpetzer.de/satire/baerbock-muesli/

Personally, I'm counting the days until Baerbock is finally accused of running a child slavery ring out of a pizzeria in Berlin or something.

If you are a die-hard green supporter, these points may seem negligible. And true, maybe if you are a student at university or have a typical white-collar job, virtue signalling a "racism problem" certainly is a main concern and important issue.

Elsewhere, the economic downturn, loss of jobs and bankrupcy wave of small retailers and small business owners are much more urgent questions.
To those voters which are at least in their mid-20s, Mrs. Baerbock's "negligible blemishs" resemble the media hype of Mr. Schulz four years ago.

- She forgot the bonus payments to report THREE years in a row. And she got a "Corona Bonus Payment" too, while workers are getting laid off, or have reduced wages. Not to mention the intensive care nurses and medical staff which had real hardships with Corona without any bonus payments, but unpaid extra work.  She only came out as a free lance journalist who had a story on her wanted it to sell it to our "beloved" public broadcast service turned it down and warned her.

- The interview excerpt in which she rudely disqualifies her Co-Chairman Habeck can be seen here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOMW8Kn4OLw
She berates him first with his "chicken, swines and what'cha have, cow milking, I stem from international law". Well, as if she had a JD, not a Masters in public administration.

- The Diploma degree(usually at least 4.5 years of studying , not a Credit Point System for individual courses but integrated minimum learning time including a thesis) was accepted only as undergraduate studies in the UK. The Pre-diploma (a small exam after 2 years) was not an accepted academic title at home or abroad. Except for some extremely privileged children of some bigwigs, like children of CEOs. There it was magically possible. Let's sum this up: After 2+1 years instead of 4.5 years of studying obtaining academic title in this time is not something according to most Diploma degree regulations.
By the way, I have a Diploma degree myself and was a student member of the curriculum commission. I do not knwo the exact cirumstances and regulations of the political faculty at the University of Hamburg at which she obtained the title, and why she did not complete the diploma afterwards, thus I cannot say if there were circumstances in which 3 years without Master thesis were acceptable instead of 4.5 years of studying inlcuding a Diploma thesis.  
In my case experience, we had to judge a student's academic curriculum, and abbreviating a study with a Masters degree this way was usually  seen as not acceptable to obtain the Diploma degree.
By the way, the missing Masters thesis of Mrs Baerbock has  a striking resemblance of the missing Doctorate thesis of the person whose office she wants to inherit...

Well, the satire page might be funny. Reminds me of the puppy ad of "radical liberal Raphael Warnock" ;-)

The whole scrutiny is valid to me, as long as is kept objective. The "Diploma question" must be evaluated, maybe this is indeed too critical, but maybe she should be held accountable on sincerity as all politicians with academic titles. After all, we need a person with a sound judgement as next chancellor, not a secretary for agit-prop.

Last but not least 2 sources for the confusing claim Mrs. Baerbock being a "International Law" whatever:
https://juergenfritz.com/2021/05/21/annalena-baerbock-keine-juristin-aber-voelkerrechtlerin/
https://juergenfritz.com/2021/05/22/baerbock-brach-promotion-2015-ab-gab-sich-bis-2021-ohne-zeitliche-angabe-als-doktorandin-aus/

[President Johnson]

Söder making waves again and rules out joining a government coalition as junior partner. He says the Union should either have the next chancellor or move into opposition.

[buritobr]

Sahra Wagenknecht has some criticism on Annalena Baerbock's proposals. One of these proposals the linke leader disagree is related to the foreign policy. Sahra opposes to Baerbock's plan to get closer to the west and less friendly to Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIlUci-PJVA

[Tweeby]

I’m a foreign exchange student from Bavaria (Germany), but living in Texas now.

Go Greens, go SPD!

[President Johnson]

Some interesting poll numbers. The SPD's only chance is to rally behind Genosse Olaf and point to his credentials for the job while proposing concrete policies that a majority supports.

[Flyersfan232]

Söder making waves again and rules out joining a government coalition as junior partner. He says the Union should either have the next chancellor or move into opposition.

Would be the smart move

[President Johnson]

President Frank-Walter Steinmeiner today announced that he's available for a second five year term and intends to be a candidate in the February 2022 electoral college vote (which consists all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors chosen by the states).

Whether he'll get a second term will be decided after the September federal election. It's likely, but not a given. The SPD already backs him of course; FDP leader Christian Lindner also expressed his support for Steinmeier, as have rank and file members of the Left Party like Bodo Ramelow. Union and Greens have not committed to anything, though both Laschet and Baerbock said that Steinmeier is doing a good job. Merkel also spoke high of him, though she won't have a say in the matter.

Anyway, enthusiastically endorsed. He's the right person for the position and I'm proud to be represented by him.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1398217748434632706

[Pick Up the Phone]

Steinmeier is a good guy and an able president. No doubt about that.

But if there really is a Black-Green/Green-Black government after the elections, the coalition partners could be tempted to elect one of their own instead. There are quite a few people who seem interested... Kramp-Karrenbauer, Göring-Eckardt, Özdemir...

[President Johnson]

Steinmeier is a good guy and an able president. No doubt about that.

But if there really is a Black-Green/Green-Black government after the elections, the coalition partners could be tempted to elect one of their own instead. There are quite a few people who seem interested... Kramp-Karrenbauer, Göring-Eckardt, Özdemir...

Actually I think Laschet is more likely to get along with Steinmeier getting a second term. When it comes to the Greens, I feel like they would put identity politics ahead and want a woman to replace just for the sake of having one in that office.

Özdemir would be much better as successor to Winfried Kretschmann.

[rob in cal]

If the current polls hold, and the next election yields a 26-22-16-12-12-6 type scenario, would a black green coalition be the most likely outcome? Would the CDU prefer that over a Germany coalition? And if the votes were there, would the FDP prefer a Germany or a traffic light coalition? How do  FDP and SPD feel about a Germany coalition?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

If the current polls hold, and the next election yields a 26-22-16-12-12-6 type scenario, would a black green coalition be the most likely outcome? Would the CDU prefer that over a Germany coalition? And if the votes were there, would the FDP prefer a Germany or a traffic light coalition? How do  FDP and SPD feel about a Germany coalition?

I think the SPD will avoid a coalition with the Union at all costs, and if not, it would prove that it has well earned its downfall.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The CDU would probably prefer a "Germany" coalition, but why would a probably weakened SPD go into the a coalition that is probably further right?

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1399946347575451648

Forsa seat estimation:

CDU/CSU: 201 (-45)
Greens: 189 (+122)
SPD: 110 (-43)
FDP: 110 (+30)
AfD: 71 (-23)
Left: 47 (-22)

For the first in the history of German federal election polling, the FDP is as strong as the SPD.
Btw, the record for the best Green Party polling result hasn't been broken yet, as it was set in 2011 (28 % shortly after Fukushima) and while Greens managed to receive this number four times this year, they never went to 28.5 or 29 % (As of now, I am doubtful that this will happen).

[CumbrianLefty]

SPD going back into coalition last time looks, if anything, an even worse choice now than it did then.

[jaichind]

What are the chances of Green-SPD-FDP getting together to form a majority ?

[CumbrianLefty]

It may be the first time FDP have polled level with the SPD, but pretty sure they have scored above 14% in the past - what is their highest ever figure?

[TheSaint250]

Is there a good chance SSW wins a seat out of Schleswig-Holstein? Just learned today they were contesting the federal election

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What are the chances of Green-SPD-FDP getting together to form a majority ?

It works smoothly in Rhineland-Palatine, but I think the SPD would be the biggest loser. They all could unite under the argument of moving on from the CDU-era/bureaucracy reform. I also think that the FDP would even be willing to give in on the issue of state intervention regarding climate change. It would not agree to raise taxes for the rich, which is an SPD demand. All in all, this would be a progressive neoliberal government - something that the SPD wants to avoid being part of.

It may be the first time FDP have polled level with the SPD, but pretty sure they have scored above 14% in the past - what is their highest ever figure?

14.6% in 2009, but they had even higher polling numbers prior.

Is there a good chance SSW wins a seat out of Schleswig-Holstein? Just learned today they were contesting the federal election

No, this will not happen. The SSW has a statewide support of what, 3 to 4 percent? They did not even win a district in the state election. Federal election districts are much larger, so it would be even harder for the SSW to win a seat.

[Astatine]

It may be the first time FDP have polled level with the SPD, but pretty sure they have scored above 14% in the past - what is their highest ever figure?

Their absolute peak result was 18 % at the beginning of 2009. If their polling numbers remain as good as currently, they might get a record result in November, but I doubt that their polling record will be broken.

Is there a good chance SSW wins a seat out of Schleswig-Holstein? Just learned today they were contesting the federal election

No, this will not happen. The SSW has a statewide support of what, 3 to 4 percent? They did not even win a district in the state election. Federal election districts are much larger, so it would be even harder for the SSW to win a seat.

It could very well happen, because SSW is excepted from the five percent threshold at federal level and would just need to cross the "natural" threshold that comes with the Sainte-Lague seat calculation. The natural threshold according to the D'Hondt method would be 1/598, so 0.167 % (with that percentage, they would be absolutely safe to get a seat). As Sainte-Lague is calculated with divisors of 0.5, 1.5, etc., the first (and important) one being half of the D'Hondt divisor - 0.083 % - could be enough to get a seat.

Assuming 47 million people go to the polls this year (last time it was 46.5 million), about 40,000 votes are needed to have a realistic shot at winning a seat (and 80,000 to have a seat definitely safe).
SSW got 32,000 votes in the last state elections. Assuming SSW gets 3 % in Schleswig-Holstein with a raw turnout of 1.7 million people (it was 1.73 million in 2017), the party would have 51,000 raw votes, which would probably be enough. Plus, due to an increased size of the Bundestag, the natural threshold might actually be lower.

So as of now, I'd say it's more likely than not that the SSW will get a seat in the Bundestag. I think we need some federal Schleswig-Holstein state polls, it could very well be the case that the fact SSW is running and is excepted from the threshold simply fell under the pollsters' radar.