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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214115 times)
MRCVzla
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« Reply #700 on: May 04, 2021, 10:17:21 AM »

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/
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OldEurope
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« Reply #701 on: May 04, 2021, 10:25:31 AM »

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

There is a third one:
https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/blog/
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beesley
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« Reply #702 on: May 04, 2021, 03:25:52 PM »

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/
I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

As they saying above, Election.de does a constituency projection map based on average polls, they update periodically: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?

Also pollster INSA does one based on their own weekly polling: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

There is a third one:
https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/blog/

Danke euch beiden.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #703 on: May 04, 2021, 04:00:25 PM »

I did a uniform swing model myself out of curiosity.

I take the average of latest polls of Kantar (The artists formerly known as Emnid), Forsa, FG Wahlen, GMS, InfratestDimap and INSA which would be

CDU/CSU 25,8 (-7,1)
Greens 23,7 (+14,3)
SPD 14,7 (-5,8)
FDP 11 (+0,3)
AfD 10,8 (-1,8)
LINKE 7,2 (-2)

and apply the swings uniformly to the district and the list vote in the districts (there aren't many polls for the Bundestag elections in the different states as of now, maybe I will account for that at a later stage. (And of course this doesn't take splitting patterns, candidate quality, incumbency, sociodemographic factors into account, but it gives an idea)

This would give won districts by district votes

CDU: 151 (-34)
CSU: 40 (-6)
SPD: 54 (-5)
Greens: 37 (+36)
AfD: 13 (+10)
Left: 4 (-1)

Districts won by list votes

CDU: 131 (-79)
CSU: 40 (-6)
SPD: 25 (-5)
Greens: 80 (+80)
AfD: 20 (+14)
Left: 3 (-4)

These 80 green districts would include at least one seat in each state, but Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #704 on: May 07, 2021, 09:03:27 AM »

ARDs Tagesguck poll has the Greens ahead and for the first time a number for the FW:

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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #705 on: May 07, 2021, 09:26:02 AM »

Grüne and FDP = 37%
CDU/CSU and SPD = 37%

Exciting. Who would have expected this four years ago?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #706 on: May 07, 2021, 01:38:36 PM »

Grüne and FDP = 37%
CDU/CSU and SPD = 37%

Exciting. Who would have expected this four years ago?

Even lower than Austria's Grand Coalition in its dying days (2014-2017) ... I think SPÖ+ÖVP never dropped below 40% combined.

CDU/CSU/SPD are completely worn out and Germans want something completely different: preferably something like Greens+FDP+FW, but they'd need another 5-10% ...
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President Johnson
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« Reply #707 on: May 07, 2021, 01:44:50 PM »

Grüne and FDP = 37%
CDU/CSU and SPD = 37%

Exciting. Who would have expected this four years ago?

Well, I actually expected the SPD to drop to 15% in the aftermath of the 2017 election should we enter another "Grand" Coalition. That was one of the main reasons I voted against the agreement in the 2018 referendum.

The good and the bad news here is that support for political parties has become very volatile so that it can change under the right circumstances. But voters for now are done with Black-Red, which presents a stark contrast to 2013, when there was overwhelming support it following the Merkel II Union/FDP government with all the infighting.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #708 on: May 07, 2021, 02:20:37 PM »

Map of elections on June 6 + September 26:



Green:

Federal election in all 16 German states (26.9.)

Dark Green:

State elections in Sachsen-Anhalt (6.6.), Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Thüringen (all 26.9.), Upper Austria (26.9.)

Light Green:

Maybe a few referendums in Switzerland
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buritobr
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« Reply #709 on: May 08, 2021, 07:29:16 AM »

Germany looks like an island of moderate politics in this world after 2008.
The 3 candidates - Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz - are centrist. The parties are still looking for the median voter.
In other countries, parties are not seeking the median voter anymore, they are trying to increase the enthusiasm of their own base. Very left-wing and very right-wing emerged.
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Derpist
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« Reply #710 on: May 08, 2021, 06:07:15 PM »

Germany looks like an island of moderate politics in this world after 2008.
The 3 candidates - Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz - are centrist. The parties are still looking for the median voter.
In other countries, parties are not seeking the median voter anymore, they are trying to increase the enthusiasm of their own base. Very left-wing and very right-wing emerged.

The reality is that class and cultural signalling matters a lot more than actual policies to people. Nobody cared that Trump's policies weren't that different from the normal corporatist Republican. And no one cares that Biden was just as "woke" in practice as Hillary Clinton. People just responded based on class cues.

The German Greens realized they can just win by being the party of bourgeoisie Westerners, which is the natural party of government in liberal "democracies". Actual policy isn't really relevant.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #711 on: May 08, 2021, 07:06:05 PM »

Germany looks like an island of moderate politics in this world after 2008.
The 3 candidates - Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz - are centrist. The parties are still looking for the median voter.
In other countries, parties are not seeking the median voter anymore, they are trying to increase the enthusiasm of their own base. Very left-wing and very right-wing emerged.

Germany has higher turnout than say US so trying to appeal to those who don't live and breathe politics and just want good government whereas in countries with lower turnout its less about appealing to others and more bringing out your supporters.  Also Germany's history has made extreme policies much less popular and they've developed a culture based on cooperation and consensus whereas a lot of other countries haven't experienced extremes so less aversion to them.  In US where worst, its almost seen as a source of pride to be ideologically pure.  In UK, class divide is much bigger although Tories doing much better amongst working class than in past while Labour gaining in middle class so seeing some shifts there.  Former larger however than latter.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #712 on: May 09, 2021, 12:00:22 AM »

Has the Annalena Baerbock/Boris Palmer saga already been mentioned here ?

So, the controversial Green mayor of Tübingen since 2006, Boris Palmer, has come under Green fire for apparently „racist“ remarks about a former black German football player.

The football player and now 📺 commentator Dennis Aogo must be some sort of Kanye West and referred to himself once apparently jokingly as a „Ni**er Dick“.

After which Palmer said „Aogo is a real racist“. Palmer said he meant it ironically.

The Greens, in their political correctness, now started a party exclusion vote for Palmer - trying to get rid of him before the 2022 Tübingen mayoral election ...

Not a good move from Annalena if she wants her party to be big-tent.

Boris meanwhile criticizes Annalena for the Green „cancel culture“.

Damn, I like this guy ...

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus230983931/Boris-Palmer-ueber-Cancel-Culture-Ernsthafte-Gefahr-fuer-die-offene-Gesellschaft.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #713 on: May 09, 2021, 12:12:22 AM »

You can’t say it better than that:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #714 on: May 09, 2021, 12:31:52 AM »

A tale of 2 recent controversial „vergasen“ (gassing) comments in Germany and Austria, with 2 totally different outcomes - even though both said exactly the same thing:



https://www.faz.net/aktuell/sport/fussball/dennis-aogo-nach-aussage-ueber-vergasen-nicht-mehr-sky-experte-17330111.html



https://www.heute.at/s/bis-zur-vergasung-aufregung-um-starmania-kandidatin-100140382

Shows how cancel culture is currently handled differently in Germany than in Austria.

The above mentioned Black-German former football player Dennis Aogo lost his TV commentator job after saying football players are often „training until gassing“.

Anna Buchegger, finalist (and eventual winner) of „Austrian Idol 2021“ a few days ago, said the same about her memorizing of vocals and lyrics.

It should be noted that saying „bis zur Vergasung trainieren/üben“ or „Gas geben“ was never really a controversial saying in German, until recently when people tried to put it into context with the Holocaust.

Also read here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=435108.0
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #715 on: May 09, 2021, 12:42:44 AM »

The fact that the black guy Dennis Aogo was basically forced to apologize for his „gas“ comment and quit his job shows you how politically correct Germany has become recently.

Anna Buchegger also apologized, but the comment here was basically treated as a slip of the tongue and was forgotten pretty quickly again.
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Kabam
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« Reply #716 on: May 09, 2021, 01:36:22 PM »

Palmer is a big liability for the Greens. He seems to deliberately want to damage his own party at this point. He seems like a very unlikeable and narcisstic person.
It's probably the best decision to throw him out of the party.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #717 on: May 10, 2021, 04:23:27 AM »

Just for the record: Olaf Scholz has been confirmed as SPD chancellor candidate by an online party convention with 96% of the vote. He delivered a fiery speech, which was quite unusual for him, since he's usually a calm and moderate person. The main tenor of the speech was respect in society and making the 2020s a decade of modernization. Key policy proposals are a minimum wage increase to 12€/hour, more investments in housing and infrastructure and carbon neutrality by 2045. Furthermore, he wants to lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Since support for parties is fluid, I think this election may be a make or break moment for the party. Scholz now needs to specify his policy proposals, sell them to the public and - as more people start paying attention - capitalize on his governing experience. He's easily the most qualified chancellor candidate, especially compared to Baerbock. If he can paint her as inexperienced and tie Laschet to the status-quo, there's a chance he'll end up winning. All he needs is cut off 5-8% from the Greens in current polls. What I know is that as SPD member I'll try my best to get him elected. He's the one best prepared to get the job done for renewal after the Merkel years.
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Kabam
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« Reply #718 on: May 10, 2021, 05:49:42 AM »

Wissler and Bartsch have been elected as the lead candidates of the left.
Good for them, that they have not chosen Hennig-Wellsow.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #719 on: May 13, 2021, 01:39:34 AM »

The latest trend is that CDU/CSU are going up again, Greens down again.

FDP up further.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #720 on: May 13, 2021, 06:39:47 AM »

There are no strong trends at the moment. Greens down a bit, CDU up a bit over the last week as the chancellor candidate selection processes are fading a bit from recent memory. SPD up a bit back to 15 per cent which can probably additionally be attributed to their party conference. FDP stagnant and AfD down a bit. But we are talking about at the maximum two percentage points about the last two weeks.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #721 on: May 13, 2021, 11:45:26 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2021, 11:55:42 AM by Pick Up the Phone »

The main tenor of the speech was respect in society and making the 2020s a decade of modernization. Key policy proposals are a minimum wage increase to 12€/hour, more investments in housing and infrastructure and carbon neutrality by 2045. Furthermore, he wants to lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while increasing taxes on the wealthy.

I think it is a pretty boring proposal. Carbon neutrality is consensus among all parties not called AfD, while more public investments or lower taxes are center-left standard demands and rather forgettable. The latter are also not that attractive to most voters - for some reason, progressive politicians always think that 'tax the rich' is popular when it is evidently not. Most people don't care about taxes that don't affect them directly. And those who do usually voter for the LINKE.

Since support for parties is fluid, I think this election may be a make or break moment for the party. Scholz now needs to specify his policy proposals, sell them to the public

First and foremost, Scholz needs to raise his profile and give people an idea why he should be Chancellor. The importance of 'policy proposals' is vastly overrated, especially if they are neither original nor revolutionary.

and - as more people start paying attention - capitalize on his governing experience.

Or the other way round: explain why people should not expect 'more of the same' from him.

He's easily the most qualified chancellor candidate, especially compared to Baerbock.

I think you confuse experience with competence. Scholz is certainly the more experienced candidate but that doesn't mean that he's more qualified, more competent, or more capable of leading (and representing!) Germany.  

If he can paint her as inexperienced and tie Laschet to the status-quo, there's a chance he'll end up winning.

Do you think this is a viable strategy? I mean... Scholz is vice-chancellor and as such co-responsible for the status quo. I don't see how he could attack Laschet/the CDU without delegitimizing himself.

Edit: I just read Scholz' convention speech. Pages over page about mobility concepts but only one half-sentence (i.e., three words) about racism - arguably Germany's most urgent problem next to climate change. One half-sentence (i.e., three words) about sexism. And not a single word about the LGBTQ+ community. Really don't think that this is sufficient in 2021.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #722 on: May 13, 2021, 04:55:47 PM »

The main tenor of the speech was respect in society and making the 2020s a decade of modernization. Key policy proposals are a minimum wage increase to 12€/hour, more investments in housing and infrastructure and carbon neutrality by 2045. Furthermore, he wants to lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while increasing taxes on the wealthy.

I think it is a pretty boring proposal. Carbon neutrality is consensus among all parties not called AfD, while more public investments or lower taxes are center-left standard demands and rather forgettable. The latter are also not that attractive to most voters - for some reason, progressive politicians always think that 'tax the rich' is popular when it is evidently not. Most people don't care about taxes that don't affect them directly. And those who do usually voter for the LINKE.


Minimum wage can be a vote winner, certainly at least in US, which obviously has very different politics than Germany, minimum wage initiatives on ballots have tended to be quite popular.  If Germany is anything like English speaking world, turnout tends to be lower amongst lower paid workers so probably a way to get more to show up.

Tax the rich is notionally quite popular, but yeah doesn't seem to help as much as polls suggest it would.  Also in US, initiatives on raising taxes on rich have almost always done much worse than initial polls.  I think raising taxes on rich while cutting for lower and middle class is really more symbolic to show which side party is on and paint other on side of rich, but actual impact not that big in terms of revenue.  Trudeau in Canada won in big part on this in 2015 so it can help there if framed as which side is leader on, but doubt idea of taxing rich in itself is a huge draw.

On climate change, that seems more suited for Australia, Canada, and US where parties on right still question existence of climate change and don't want to take action.  In Europe much less as you don't have the left/right divide on this like you do in above three countries. 
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buritobr
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« Reply #723 on: May 15, 2021, 04:55:37 PM »

Some facts:

Only one CDU candidate was never the chancellor: Rainer Barzel 1972. Armin Laschet can be the second one. In 1980 and 2002, there were CSU candidates.

2021 is the first german federal election since 1949 in which the chancellor's seat is vaccant
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President Johnson
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« Reply #724 on: May 19, 2021, 01:28:38 PM »

Too unfortunate, Giffey was always one of my favorites. But she'll still run as the SPD's candidate for governing mayor of Berlin.

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