🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Conservatopia]

Oh God.

If Anna Baerbock is elected Chancellor I’m going to have to go and live in a shed in the Forest of Dean for a minimum of three months to avoid UK media hot takes. Sort it out CDU bitte.

Not that there's anything wrong with that...

[President Johnson]

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry over this poll.

[Cassius]

Oh God.

If Anna Baerbock is elected Chancellor I’m going to have to go and live in a shed in the Forest of Dean for a minimum of three months to avoid UK media hot takes. Sort it out CDU bitte.

Not that there's anything wrong with that...

Of course not. Assuming we haven’t emerged from semi-lockdown by the end of the year I might even make it a permanent move.

[buritobr]

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry over this poll.

If you like center-left politics, you should consider good that AfD is doing not better than it did in 2017 and that there is a great probability of a green-red-yellow coalition under the leadershio of Annalena Baerbock

[Pick Up the Phone]

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry over this poll.

If you like center-left politics, you should consider good that AfD is doing not better than it did in 2017 and that there is a great probability of a green-red-yellow coalition under the leadershio of Annalena Baerbock

Indeed. But the performance of the AfD is pretty meaningless to be honest. They are completely irrelevant in terms of coalition-building and the more percentage points they take from the CDU, the better (from a center-left perspective).  
_____

Very nice polls, I must say. Germany is finally turning green.

[Kabam]

[...] and the party is quite accustomed to over-polling. If it were for polling, the Greens wouldn’t be the smallest party in the Bundestag for four elections in a row right now.

This is just an often repeated myth tbh. They outperformed their poll numbers in the 2017 Bundestag and 2019 European elections. And the only election of the last four Bundestag elections, in which they underperformed their poll numbers was 2013.

[jaymichaud]

Say something nice about this.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Say something nice about this.

Amusing that the losses of CDU+SPD+LINKE (-75; -54; -16) and the gains of GRÜNE (+145) are exactly the same. Everybody but FDP voters switches to the Greens while the AfD stagnates. Beautiful.  

[buritobr]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

Because she’s kinda cool and Laschet & Co. are dull ...

[rob in cal]

So what would a traffic light coalition look like in terms of policy on immigration, the EU, taxes etc, and would they try for any political structural change like reform of the 5% threshold, more direct democracy etc.  I wonder if some in the FDP especially would like to push a change in the 5% rule as so many of their state parties come just above or below that number, and lowering it on the federal level might lead to   change on the lower level?

I would think both the Greens and the FDP would support immigration expansion, for business reasons on the part of the FDP, and for humanitarian and general expansion of  multi culturalism reasons on the part of the Greens.

[President Johnson]

If - and that's still a big if - the Greens become the strongest party and can chose between coalition partners, I would definitely advise CDU/CSU not to enter a coalition as junior partner. Especially not if the only alternative is green-red-red because trafficlight either doesn't come together or doesn't have a majority. One way or the other, they would be forced to make so many concessions that they will lose all remaining conservative credentials while the Greens would be established as the main force of the political center. As a result, the Union would totally appear as obsolete. The AfD could benefit by picking up more conservative voters, especially in Eastern states. Or the CSU finally breaks apart from the Union to prevent AfD from becoming the major right of center political force. In that scenario, the Union, and particularly CDU, would follow the SPD's path down to a minor party.

[buritobr]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

[Pick Up the Phone]

So what would a traffic light coalition look like

Unclear, as there has never been a traffic light coalition in federal politics before - but let me try:

in terms of policy on immigration,

If anything, more generous than the current coalition's policy. A government without CSU politicians who kill all legislative efforts because they need to show how 'tough on immigration' they are would be quite an improvement on this front. All three parties have repeatedly committed themselves to the basic tenets of multiculturalism and I assume that they would find common ground here rather easily. The FDP may complain a little about asylum issues - but like most of what the FDP does, it's not meant to be taken too seriously. They would be extremely unlikely to crash the coalition because of this.

the EU,

All are firmly pro-EU. But so is the CDU. I wouldn't expect any major policy changes.

taxes etc,

Depends on who gets the relevant ministries. This is a policy domain where I would expect some disharmony between FDP and Grüne/SPD but they should be able to find a compromise that doesn't hurt anyone. Less bureaucracy/lower corporate taxes in exchange for renewable energy subsidies etc.

and would they try for any political structural change like reform of the 5% threshold, more direct democracy etc.  I wonder if some in the FDP especially would like to push a change in the 5% rule as so many of their state parties come just above or below that number, and lowering it on the federal level might lead to   change on the lower level?

No doubt that the FDP would love that. But why should the other two parties agree to such a proposal? No, I don't see any real potential for structural change (at least not with regard to the two issues you mentioned). Most Germans are not too fond of such change and most smart politicians know that.  

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Well, not necessarily (see 'never held any government office before' and 'no dubious corporate past') but there are certainly some parallels and I could imagine that Baerbock would easily get along with Macron. But you have to consider that Macron has always been a solo performer, whereas Baerbock would have to listen to the majority opinion of her party - even as Chancellor.

[mileslunn]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

How an adult person can be so cringy? Like, seriously what the hell with those "funny" surnames spelling? Are we in primary school?

[mileslunn]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

Trudeau at least in rhetoric is pretty left wing.  Yes actual policies have been much less radical and more centrist but for anybody who follows Canadian politics, Liberals have long history of running like Social Democrats governing like Conservatives.  Trudeau ran like a Social Democrat, governed like a watered down version of one so centre-left but not that left.

Trudeau though has ran big deficits, but mind you so has GOP so not sure that says a lot.  On taxing rich more, he did raise top rate which I think Greens favour, but he is opposed to a wealth tax which German Greens want (probably won't happen unless Red-Red-Coalition) and he didn't raise capital gains tax rate which is how a lot of rich earn income anyways.

He is quite woke on social policies, but Canada I think with is history of immigration and multiculturalism has always been to left of Europe on this.  Europe wasn't built on immigration, Canada was. 

Ardern is interesting as young fresh face and progressive and while barely won in 2017, became wildly popular and won a landslide in 2020.  Off course her government looked in trouble pre-COVID and big reason for big win was New Zealand largely avoided COVID-19 and off course being a remote island probably helped a lot which is not really applicable to anywhere in Europe

[buritobr]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Well, not necessarily (see 'never held any government office before' and 'no dubious corporate past') but there are certainly some parallels and I could imagine that Baerbock would easily get along with Macron. But you have to consider that Macron has always been a solo performer, whereas Baerbock would have to listen to the majority opinion of her party - even as Chancellor.

There are some differences, but I pointed to the similarities because both are viewed at same time as centrists and outsiders. This is different to many other outsiders, who are usually very left-wing or very right-wing

[Tender Branson]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

How an adult person can be so cringy? Like, seriously what the hell with those "funny" surnames spelling? Are we in primary school?

If you don’t like it, you can hit the ignore button.

It’s not cringe, it’s pretty funny to translate her animal sounding name into English.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

Welcome to the first grade, class! Today we'll learn about manners

[beesley]

I'd be interested to see some sort of constituency projection. I'm not interested in individual constituencies but just the regional trends and where the Greens get their seats, including their performance in the former east.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Election.de does a district prognosis the author makes much fuzz about But which seems basically to be a uniform swing model. I did one myself out of curiosity. I will give some insights when I'm home in the evening. The Greens could win seats in big cities that are not the Ruhr area, and in Baden-Württemberg. And the Wendland, of course. About 40 to 60 seats. SPD would hold quie steady. AfD could win seats in the Eastern,  if their vote share doesnt drop much.

In the end, much would depend on swing differentials in Different regions and sociodemographic groups, vote splitting patterns between list and district votes in an unprecendented environment, and factors like candidate quality, incumbency, tactical voting