🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:07:16 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 15 16 17 [18] 19 20 21 22 23 ... 115
Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214092 times)
Lechasseur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,757


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #425 on: November 07, 2019, 07:10:05 PM »

Anyway AKK must be finished at this point. No way in their right mind would the CDU nominate her.

Agreed

CDU made a mistake not to elect him in the first place.

Agreed

He would win a vote among all party members, though.

And agreed
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 428


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #426 on: November 07, 2019, 09:39:18 PM »

I would be careful not to write off AKK too soon. She was elected not even 12 months ago and already had to face some of the most difficult state elections of the entire 2017-2021 period. Not that I'm particularly convinced by her performance myself, but Merkel was also "done" and "finished" five or six times before she was elected chancellor. And even after that, there were countless pundits who claimed that powerful state level politicians like Günther Oettinger, Roland Koch, and Jürgen Rüttgers would render her a lame duck. Almost 15 years later, all of them are gone and Merkel is still there. It's just a gut feeling, of course, but people might get used to AKK (just liked they got used to Merkel) and tire of Merz's antics sooner than we think. Especially if we consider that there is no state election between now and early 2021 except Hamburg - and Hamburg was and is out of reach for the CDU regardless of its leader.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #427 on: November 08, 2019, 04:57:41 AM »

Who tf are of 12% of West Germans and 8% of East Germans who say that "free speech" was better under the East German Regime?

I'm even more amazed that there are people who think that "travel possibilities" in the GDR were better. Hard to believe.

They're just discontent with their current lifes and due to a myopic view of history they indiscrimintely believe that everything must have been better in the past. But yeah, not much reflection going on here.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 428


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #428 on: November 12, 2019, 11:44:05 AM »

Otherwise Die Linke will elect new Bundestag fraction leaders. Unlike say a Chief Whip in the UK, these are fairly important positions - second only the the party chairmen/woman.

The Race for the male leader is not particularly interesting - Dietmar Bartsch will easily be reelected. He is a very inoffensive guy - and when I say that I mean it - he is very boring and not particularly charismatic - but nobody really dislikes him either, so he is safe. He is from the moderate wing of the Party.

On the female side however, things are shaping up to be quite interesting: previously the sole candidate was Caren Lay - the vice chairwoman. She is neither on the radical, nor on the reformist wing. Now Amira Mohamed Ali, a MdB of Egyptian descent has also entered the race. She is on the far-left of the Party.


Website des Bundestags

And she just got elected! 63,7% for Bartsch (who ran uncontested; very weak result) and 52,2% for Mohamed Ali vs. 42,0% for Lay. Pretty remarkable, since Mohamed Ali is a MdB for not even two years.
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #429 on: November 12, 2019, 02:20:21 PM »

I am wondering if the "moderate" and "far-left" labels are still useful for understanding the Left's inner-party and inner-caucus dynamics.

From an ideological point of view it was always dubious. Lafo for example was radical in the sense that he was against compromises with the SPD, but ideologically he always was a social democrat. People like Gesine Lötzsch on the other hand are pragmatic in everyday politics, but in speeches on sundays they speak about how to reach their communist utopia. So far some time the main cleavage within the Left was "uncompromising" vs. "pragmatic" rather than "far-left" vs. "moderate".

The first rupture came when the "uncompromising" wing managed to elect the party chair(wo)men Riexinger/Kipping over Bartsch/Heyenn in 2012. Bartsch was the most visible representative of the Eastern ex-PDS "pragmatics". Kipping was an Eastern ex-PDS "pragmatic" as well, but head of her own faction Emancipatory Left. Some other Eastern ex-PDS "pragmatics" saw her as a traitor, worse than their "uncompromising" open enemies.

In 2015 Wagenknecht ("uncompromising", "communist platform") and Bartsch (the ex-PDS "pragmatic") were elected caucus leaders, which was then seen as another compromise between the key exponents of the two wings of the party. But surprisingly the two caucus leaders got along quite well and began to develop a constructive working relationship between them.

Since then the conflict involving Wagenknecht and her supporters on the one side and Kipping and large parts of the party on the other side has complicated things further.

Regarding the three candidates I would say:
- Bartsch was probably supported by the Eastern traditionalist pragmatics and also by Wagenknecht's core group of supporters because of their strategic alliance. The defectors probably came form Kippings's core supporters and from some Western "umcompromisers" like Riexinger who didn't like "pragmatics" like him in the past and now don't like him because of his strategic alliance with Wagenknecht.
- Lay is a key ally of Kipping.
- Mohamed Ali managed to keep many Western anti-Wagenknecht lefties in the boat while at the same time Wagenknecht's and Bartsch's supporters absolutely couldn't swallow Lay.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 428


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #430 on: November 12, 2019, 07:47:23 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2019, 09:40:05 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

I am wondering if the "moderate" and "far-left" labels are still useful for understanding the Left's inner-party and inner-caucus dynamics.

From an ideological point of view it was always dubious. Lafo for example was radical in the sense that he was against compromises with the SPD, but ideologically he always was a social democrat. People like Gesine Lötzsch on the other hand are pragmatic in everyday politics, but in speeches on sundays they speak about how to reach their communist utopia. So far some time the main cleavage within the Left was "uncompromising" vs. "pragmatic" rather than "far-left" vs. "moderate".

I would even say that there are three (if not more) cleavages within the LINKE:

1. East vs. West (or: ex-PDS vs. all others): This is probably the most obvious one since the main roots of today’s LINKE lie in the former GDR. The party always played a different role there and was, since the reunification, mainly regarded as party of the East. It also showed some strange GDR nostalgia at times; I remember countless discussion initiated by LINKE MdBs whether the GDR was an Unrechtsstaat or not. This cleavage also comes along with strong differences in terms of voters' education (low vs. high), profession (workers & pensioners vs. students, academics, artists etc.), age (old vs. young) and environment (rural vs. urban).  

2. Radical vs. Reformist (or: willing vs. unwilling to govern): This is more or less congruent with what you describe as „uncompromising“ and „pragmatic“. It’s mainly about the tactical position of the party within the political system: Should the LINKE be a force of radical opposition or rather try to form alliances with other (center-)left parties (i.e. SPD + GRÜNE) to make incremental change possible. Of course, respective positions are extremely context-dependent. A state party which has a realistic chance to govern is naturally less likely to adhere to radical ideas than the LINKE at the federal level or the state party of e.g. Bavaria where the only coalitions imaginable are CSU, CSU-FDP, CSU-FW, and CSU-SPD.

3. Economic vs. Cultural focus: Sounds a bit vague but it refers to one of the main questions basically all left parties have to face nowadays. What’s their purpose? What’s their clientele? And what are their long-term goals? Some LINKE politicians, radical as well as reformist ones, think that the main conflict in society is still determined by economic inequality and what Marx would describe as class struggle. They are primarily interested in taxing the rich, improving workers’ rights, protecting the welfare state, and regulating the economy. Wagenknecht, who combined this position with her East German heritage and a more or less orthodox brand of Marxism, was the most prominent representative of this group; and despite her strong Marxist tendencies, she was rather well-liked by many right-wingers and conservatives who thought of her policies as an inversion of the AfD’s: socialism with national undertones instead of nationalism with social undertones. Of course, this in completely unacceptable for those in the LINKE who would like to see a party that doesn’t limit equality and solidarity to the economic sphere, but rather applies these principles to minorities in general and refugees in specific. This faction wants to modernize the LINKE and cares deeply about issues like ensuring gender equality, combating racism and Islamophobia, and defending human rights.

Of course, the reality is always much more complicated, especially since the LINKE has quite a number of intra-party structures (Marx21, Communist Platform, Emancipatory Left…) and, just like any other party, also a lot of people who forge alliances that are based on opportunism rather than ideology. But I would say that these three cleavages are more or less at the center.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #431 on: November 13, 2019, 12:28:41 PM »

The Chairman of the Law Committee (Rechtsausschuss) of the Bundestag, Stefan Brandner has been ousted by members of all other parties except for the AfD itsself. It's the first time in Bundestag history this happened, following a number of very controversial statements the guy made. Of course, the pathetic AfD clowns are playing the victim now.
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #432 on: November 13, 2019, 03:54:20 PM »

[...]
I would even say that there are three (if not more) cleavages within the LINKE:

1. East vs. West (or: ex-PDS vs. all others)
[...]

2. Radical vs. Reformist (or: willing vs. unwilling to govern)
[...]

3. Economic vs. Cultural focus:
[...]

Of course, the reality is always much more complicated, especially since the LINKE has quite a number of intra-party structures (Marx21, Communist Platform, Emancipatory Left…) and, just like any other party, also a lot of people who forge alliances that are based on opportunism rather than ideology. But I would say that these three cleavages are more or less at the center.

You put many aspects better than I could ever have. But I would like to put additional emphasis on how the weighting of these cleavages has shifted over time and how this leads some commentators to speak of some of the divides within the Left in outdated terms that in this regard explain little and confuse a lot. E.g. the party's "Left" (Wagenknecht, Dagdelen,...) and the party's "Right" (Bartsch,...) allying against the party's "Center" (Kipping, Riexinger,...). The third cleavage you mention seems much more useful in this regard.
Logged
Lechasseur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,757


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #433 on: November 13, 2019, 04:54:26 PM »

The Chairman of the Law Committee (Rechtsausschuss) of the Bundestag, Stefan Brandner has been ousted by members of all other parties except for the AfD itsself. It's the first time in Bundestag history this happened, following a number of very controversial statements the guy made. Of course, the pathetic AfD clowns are playing the victim now.

What kind of comments?
Logged
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 587
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #434 on: November 13, 2019, 05:33:13 PM »

The Chairman of the Law Committee (Rechtsausschuss) of the Bundestag, Stefan Brandner has been ousted by members of all other parties except for the AfD itsself. It's the first time in Bundestag history this happened, following a number of very controversial statements the guy made. Of course, the pathetic AfD clowns are playing the victim now.

What kind of comments?

He has quite a history of saying terrible things, but the last straw was when, after the attack on the Synagogue in Halle, he shared a post saying that politicans should not be "scrounging around" Synagogues and Mosques, because the "Victims were germans" * He eventually apologised. That was followed by a tweet railing against the Bundesverdienskreuz (the German equivalent of the Presidential Medal of Freedom) for singer Udo Lindenberg, who is critical of the AFD, in which Brandner stated that the medal was “Judaslohn” — a biblical reference to the “blood money” Judas Iscariot received for betraying Jesus.

*The Terrorist botched the attack and was not able to kill anyone in the Synagogue. But it was of course a far-right attack aimed at killing Jews (and Muslims in the Kebab shop) and the Tweet was basically denying that. The not-thinly vailed Implication of the Tweet also being that Muslims or Jews were not Germans. Its a bit hard to explain without speaking German, but it was just a completely disgusting and undignified thing to say in all aspects.

This will of course not harm the AFD in any significant way, and they will still retain the Chairmanship of the Rechtsauschuss as long as they nominate someone else, that is acceptable to the other parties. Though perhaps they wont noninate because continuing the Farce that they are being "persecuted" helps them, and its not like they care much about doing constructive work in the Bundestag committees anyway.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #435 on: December 22, 2019, 05:41:39 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2019, 05:45:20 AM by Ye Olde Europe »

Today, Angela Merkel has become the second-longest serving post-WWII Chancellor of Germany, surpassing Konrad Adenauer, but still trailing Helmut Kohl. If we take all German Chancellors in history into count, Merkel now ranks third, after Bismarck and Kohl.

To become the longest serving post-1949 Chancellor she would need to remain in office until December 17, 2021 - which I guess is at least theoretically possible even if she doesn't run in the 2021 election again, provided the next government formation process will be similarly time-consuming than the last two (back in 2013, Merkel's third term did indeed start with her election by the Bundestag on December 17).
Logged
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 587
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #436 on: April 01, 2020, 04:45:28 PM »

This got less attention than it probably should have, for obvious reasons, and perhaps that actually was the intention, but Jörg Meuthen (co-leader) has proposed that the ultranationalist wing of the AFD around Höcke and the "conservative" wing split off into a separate parties and reasoned it like this:

Quote
Everyone knows that the [höcke-] wing and its key exponents cost us massively votes in the bourgeois electorate, and I also think that the neoliberal views of the bourgeois-conservative part of the AfD stop us from reaching even better results [among the working-class].

Which he is probably right about in my opinion. But it did not go down well at all within the AFD at all. Support from Georg Pazderski (Fraction leader in Berlin), but otherwise very negative. Unlikely to go anywhere, but does show that the AFD leadership seem to realise that they have hit a ceiling of sorts.

Polling in Germany has gone like everywhere in Europe at the moment. Government parties (especially CDU) up big time, Opposition down (but the AFD especially).
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #437 on: April 01, 2020, 05:31:50 PM »

This got less attention than it probably should have, for obvious reasons, and perhaps that actually was the intention, but Jörg Meuthen (co-leader) has proposed that the ultranationalist wing of the AFD around Höcke and the "conservative" wing split off into a separate parties and reasoned it like this:

Quote
Everyone knows that the [höcke-] wing and its key exponents cost us massively votes in the bourgeois electorate, and I also think that the neoliberal views of the bourgeois-conservative part of the AfD stop us from reaching even better results [among the working-class].

Which he is probably right about in my opinion. But it did not go down well at all within the AFD at all. Support from Georg Pazderski (Fraction leader in Berlin), but otherwise very negative. Unlikely to go anywhere, but does show that the AFD leadership seem to realise that they have hit a ceiling of sorts.

Polling in Germany has gone like everywhere in Europe at the moment. Government parties (especially CDU) up big time, Opposition down (but the AFD especially).

If it weren't for the Coronavirus right now, Meuthen could lose his job over this. Höcke got rid of Lucke and Petry, he can easily also get rid of Meuthen.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #438 on: April 02, 2020, 02:07:40 AM »

No one can stop Hocke from inside the party anyway.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #439 on: April 02, 2020, 01:31:53 PM »

Höcke has called Meuthen's proposition "foolish". Alexander Gauland also wasn't amused.

Yup, Meuthen is toast.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #440 on: April 02, 2020, 01:32:21 PM »

Major shift in polling due to cov-19 pandemic. Also, Merkel was a 64% approval rating (Olaf Scholz at 63%).



https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-2167.html
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #441 on: April 02, 2020, 02:06:56 PM »

Why hasn't Höcke officially become AfD leader yet? Or is he essencially the AfD's Chancellor candidate for 2021 in all but name?
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #442 on: April 02, 2020, 03:25:13 PM »

Why hasn't Höcke officially become AfD leader yet?

For essentially the same reason Meuthen has proposed to part ways with him and his wing in the first place:  Making Höcke the federal chairman - therefore fully embracing him and his ideology - could possibly cut the AfD's vote share into half.

With the current status quo one could still pretend that Höcke merely represents one among several factions within the party and that there are still other, more moderate factions (like Meuthen's for instance) which you want to support with your vote for the AfD.



Or is he essencially the AfD's Chancellor candidate for 2021 in all but name?

No. More like a gray eminence.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #443 on: April 06, 2020, 06:58:15 AM »

After Meuthen got his balls clipped by Höcke & Co., he walked back on his proposition to split the party and get rid of the extremists, calling it a "mistake" now.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #444 on: April 06, 2020, 02:45:09 PM »

After Meuthen got his balls clipped by Höcke & Co., he walked back on his proposition to split the party and get rid of the extremists, calling it a "mistake" now.

The guy is a coward who surrendered to the extreme right. Or this was just some sort of publicy by a joke party. Instead of splitting the AfD, the party should just be dissolved.
Logged
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #445 on: April 08, 2020, 11:59:08 AM »

Is the CDU receiving more support just a rally around the flag event or is there something more behind it?
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #446 on: April 08, 2020, 01:25:40 PM »

Is the CDU receiving more support just a rally around the flag event or is there something more behind it?

Yes, basically. To be honest, the entire federal government is doing a great job here. Especially in aid the businesses and employees.

It's only pathetic how the SPD is not benefiting from that although doing half of the work. Olaf Scholz is doing a phenomenal job, but our party base was stupid enough to elect two lackluster leaders on the left instead of him. I'm sure the SPD numbers would look different if he was our leader. Still proud to have voted for him twice in the leadership contest.
Logged
Astatine
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,877


Political Matrix
E: -0.72, S: -5.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #447 on: April 08, 2020, 04:25:07 PM »

Is the CDU receiving more support just a rally around the flag event or is there something more behind it?

The Governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder, once with relatively mediocre approval rating, reached a 94 % approval in a poll for Bavaria today, elevating the CSU to 49 % (overall majority) and breaking a record for gubernatorial approval in Bavaria. Federal and state governments are doing a good job in handling the crisis and I could see this boosting some politicians permanently (Söder, also Tobias Hans who is Governor of Saarland).
Logged
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 587
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #448 on: June 25, 2020, 08:03:12 PM »

Laschet looks damaged even further after this big outbreak at Tönnies in Gütersloh and having to reimpose lockdown there. (or at least that's what it looks like from here. Maybe it is seen differently in nrw, someone from there can tell us?) and it seems like that's making many Conservatives, including Söder himself, reconsider their options. He had been previously unequivocally ruling out a bid for Chancellor, now there is a subtle, but nonetheless noticable shift away from the that.
https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/analyse-soeders-nein-zur-kanzlerkandidatur-klingt-jetzt-anders,S2vN19B

Of course there is a very good chance he just baiting or keeping all doors open, and does not seriously intend to run. Just the principle of having a Bavarian run is something many people both in the CDU and CSU are very nervous about since FJS and Stoiber, leaving aside the inpracticalities about having to sever the link between Chancellor candidate and CDU chairman (the latter of which Söder cannot run for of course), and the fact that his massive popularity in the rest of Germany is only really built on his Covid response - something that is unlikely to be a issue of relevance in September 2021 - with positions on other issues like crosses in classrooms and whatever that don't really fly that well. But it still shows that many people in the CDU are becoming seriously uncomfortable with Laschet, with questions about his appeal, but moreso his judgement.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #449 on: August 07, 2020, 06:42:32 AM »

Wolfgang Schäube, incumbent President of the Bundestag, former finance/interior/chancellery minister in various Helmut Kohl & Angela Merkel cabinets and ex-federal chairman of the CDU, has announced that he's planning to run for his 14th term as member of the Bundestag in 2021. For 48 out of 71 years the post-WWII German Bundestag existed he has been a member of it.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 15 16 17 [18] 19 20 21 22 23 ... 115  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 11 queries.