🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

There was a large public demand for Lauterbach;

Sure, it's part of being polarizing that you also have some diehard followers. But it doesn't make this appointment a more reasonable or prudent one. It's not campaign season anymore, and the SPD would be well advised not to give a key office to a controversial self-promoter who is hard to control.

even CDU politicians and Markus Söder praised him.

As a matter of principle, I would be extra careful if someone was praised by Söder. For more than one reason.

I think he's definitely the best possible choice due to his broad expertise on health issues.

Doubt it. He may be the most competent, sure, but that doesn't really matter. A minister doesn't have to be an expert but an able taskmaster.

Say of him whatever you want, his takes and opinions during the pandemic often proved correct.

That's up for debate, I think. But even if he is - there is a major difference between giving the right 'takes' in talk shows and actually implementing effective policies in a system as complex as the German one. I don't consider Lauterbach someone who is willing or able to compromise if necessary.  

Many of the backbenchers talking him down from within the party are most likely just jealous that this guy is getting so much attention and a large following these days.

Don't disagree, but is their jealousy surprising? Lauterbach is obviously someone who is pretty convinced of himself (to put it mildly). And that's usually a reliable indicator for trouble.

Well, name me a successful politician of any ideology or country that isn't convinced of him- or herself. Obviously you need self confidence for a government role (or any other top role, be it in business, sports, the academic world and so on). However, I'm not actually convinced he's doing all the talkshows and tweets for his own ego or self-promotion, he seems pretty sincere about saving lives in the pandemic and enjoys educating people (his knowledge is pretty much out of question).

I think in this specific situation both his expertise on health issues and his long experience in politics (Bundestag member since 2005 and former Deputy caucus chair) are unique factors that make him an excellent pick. Professor Lauterbach is certainly far more experienced than other cabinet members have or will be. And some maverick attitude is not always a bad thing. He certainly won't do anything that specificly goes against Scholz or decisions of the entire coalition. All of these people are political professionals.

[President Johnson]

It's done, the coalition agreement has officially been signed. Olaf Scholz is scheduled to become chancellor tomorrow. So these are the final hours of Angela Merkel's chancellorship as we speak.

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1468158114658918400

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: OLAF SCHOLZ has been ELECTED CHANCELLOR WITH 395 VOTES.


707 valid votes
395 Yes
303 No
6 present

https://twitter.com/moritz_roedle/status/1468511793194618882

He will now head to President Steinemeier for formal appointment and Merkel will hand over chancellorship this afternoon.

[President Johnson]

Olaf Scholz has just been appointed and inaugurated as chancellor. He's formally in office now.

https://twitter.com/spdbt/status/1468538029211979776


You love to see it:

[Sir Mohamed]

End of an era. It's incredible how long Merkel has been in office. For sure she has influenced European and international politics to a large extent and despite some errors governed with calm and rationality.

I'm curious to see how the new cabinet will conduct itsself in the coming months and year. If successful, I think the 2021 election could be something like a realignment and lock CDU out of power for an equally long time that Merkel was at helm. Not sure Scholz will be chancellor that long; he could for sure hand the reigns over power to another SPD politician in 8 or 10 years.

[buritobr]

Do you know that Olaf Scholz, Donald Trump and Ernesto Guevara have birthday at the same day, June 14th?

All of them have the Astrological Sign Gemini

[Pick Up the Phone]

Well, name me a successful politician of any ideology or country that isn't convinced of him- or herself.

It's one thing to be it - and another thing to show it so openly. The most successful individuals in most fields are those who have a lot of self-confidence but are smart enough not to unnecessarily irritate people.

Cristiano Ronaldo or Donald Trump are the odd exceptions.

Obviously you need self confidence for a government role (or any other top role, be it in business, sports, the academic world and so on). However, I'm not actually convinced he's doing all the talkshows and tweets for his own ego or self-promotion, he seems pretty sincere about saving lives in the pandemic and enjoys educating people (his knowledge is pretty much out of question).

Never doubted his knowledge. And agree to disagree with regard to his self-promotion efforts.

In the end, the question is not whether Lauterbach is a self-promoter or not - but why Scholz did not go with a safer and less controversial option. It will be interesting how Scholz will resolve the first pandemic-related disagreements between the FDP and a Lauterbach-controlled Ministry of Health.

[Pick Up the Phone]

End of an era. It's incredible how long Merkel has been in office. For sure she has influenced European and international politics to a large extent and despite some errors governed with calm and rationality.

I'm curious to see how the new cabinet will conduct itsself in the coming months and year. If successful, I think the 2021 election could be something like a realignment and lock CDU out of power for an equally long time that Merkel was at helm. Not sure Scholz will be chancellor that long; he could for sure hand the reigns over power to another SPD politician in 8 or 10 years.

Not so sure about this. Apparently, most Germans think that Scholz will be Chancellor for four years at most. And the SPD's long-term power options beyond 'traffic light' are limited.

But obviously it depends on the CDU and whether the new leader will be able to pacify the party.

[Estrella]

Ten days short.

[President Johnson]

Do you know that Olaf Scholz, Donald Trump and Ernesto Guevara have birthday at the same day, June 14th?

All of them have the Astrological Sign Gemini

Yes, though Scholz actually has a lot in common with Joe Biden. Both have many years of experience in national politics, served as number two before becoming chief executive. Both are considered pragmatists and were not given that much of a chance at the beginning of the campaign.

He also congretulated:

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1468647565872746497

[President Johnson]

Bundestag just decided to change the seating arrangements in the chamber. The FDP long wanted to move from the right to the center as they see themselves as a centrist party, but CDU/CSU rejected that in the previous legislative term. SPD and Greens now agreed to do their coalition partner a favor and use their new majority to overrule CDU/CSU. Die Linke also supported the resolution while AfD voted present. AfD actually was another reason for the FDP to move, as they were fed up with sitting next to the far-right.

The debate was quite funny, especially the Union's whining about the move. FDP's Johannes Vogel was pretty good in calling out their hypocrisy, especially as CDU state parties used their Landtag majorities in recent years to seat the FDP on the right side of the chambers.

From left to right factions are now grouped as follows: Die Linke-SPD-Greens-FDP-CDU/CSU-AfD.

So the governing parties will be one bloc in the center starting in January. The remodeling work will last over Christmas holidays.

[buritobr]

In some countries, some politicians say that they are neither left nor right, and that the left/right politcs is anacronic (usually they are right-wing politicians).

In Germany, they still interpret the left-right scale literally. They still seat like the French Assembly after the revolution.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Re Özdemir: It is no secret that he was absolutely desperate to get a cabinet position and this was probably his last chance - a true 'now or never' moment. Since at least the mid 2000s, he had obvious aspirations to become Minister of Foreign Affairs. Now, with Baerbock blocking this option and the FDP getting the Ministry of Transport (Özdemir was Chairman of the Bundestag's Committee on Transport), Agriculture was apparently the only option left. Nonetheless, it is definitely an unexpected position for the first minister of Turkish descent(!).

Re Faeser: Very strange choice. Complete no-name in federal politics.

Re Heil: No brainer, good that he stays on.

The Turkish origin thing aside, Cem Özdemir is possibly Germany's first openly vegetarian Minister of Agriculture. So it oddly makes a bit of sense for an anti-intensive animal farming Green vegetarian to run agriculture, although the ranchers may not be that happy about it.

Özdemir has also a bit of an odd history to end up in positions he has no prior experience in as a consolation prize for something else he didn't manage to get while at the same time conducting a rivalry with Anton Hofreiter. Four years ago, he wanted to become co-leader of the Green Bundestag caucus but - ironically - failed to secure a majority against the incumbent Hofreiter. As a consolation he became chair of the Bundestag's transportation committee despite the fact that this wasn't really his prior field of main expertise.

Now he ended up in agriculture, again not really something he had occupied himself with in the past, because neither foreign affairs nor transportation were available, but at least he managed to prevail against Anton Hofreiter this time around. Now, as a consolation, Hofreiter will become chair of the Bundestag's European affairs committee.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In some countries, some politicians say that they are neither left nor right, and that the left/right politcs is anacronic (usually they are right-wing politicians).

In Germany, they still interpret the left-right scale literally. They still seat like the French Assembly after the revolution.

One FDP politician even went so far to (ironically) justify the move by quoting Franz Josef Strauß' old saying that there shall be "no democratic party to the right of the CDU/CSU".

[buritobr]

Maybe, there will be neither pure left-wing nor pure right-wing ruling coalition at the national level so soon. What do you think?
Possible pure right-wing coalitions are CDU/CSU+FDP+Afd or CDU/CSU+FDP
Possible pure left-wing coalitions are SPD+Grüne+Linke or SPD+Grüne
We don't expect CDU/CDU+FDP or SPD+Grüne to have >50% of the seats of the Bundestag in the short term, and the AfD and the Linke are not considered coalition partners.

Possible coalitions are Ampel, Jamaika, Grossekoalition, Kenya and Deutschland. All of them are mixed coalitions. We can expect long negotiations after each federal election.

[President Johnson]

Maybe, there will be neither pure left-wing nor pure right-wing ruling coalition at the national level so soon. What do you think?
Possible pure right-wing coalitions are CDU/CSU+FDP+Afd or CDU/CSU+FDP
Possible pure left-wing coalitions are SPD+Grüne+Linke or SPD+Grüne
We don't expect CDU/CDU+FDP or SPD+Grüne to have >50% of the seats of the Bundestag in the short term, and the AfD and the Linke are not considered coalition partners.

Possible coalitions are Ampel, Jamaika, Grossekoalition, Kenya and Deutschland. All of them are mixed coalitions. We can expect long negotiations after each federal election.

R2G may still be an option for 2025 or beyond. I don't think the AfD will never be in any coalition since that wouldn't be sustainable (aside from all parties ruling it out).

I also wouldn't label the FDP as right-wing or count them to any block. FDP sees itsself as centrist party with classical liberalism as basic philosophy. It's a bit closer to the CDU on economic issues and closer to the SPD and Greens on cultural issues.

The current party system makes it increasingly difficult for parties to form governments of a pure left or right bloc.

[buritobr]

Maybe, there will be neither pure left-wing nor pure right-wing ruling coalition at the national level so soon. What do you think?
Possible pure right-wing coalitions are CDU/CSU+FDP+Afd or CDU/CSU+FDP
Possible pure left-wing coalitions are SPD+Grüne+Linke or SPD+Grüne
We don't expect CDU/CDU+FDP or SPD+Grüne to have >50% of the seats of the Bundestag in the short term, and the AfD and the Linke are not considered coalition partners.

Possible coalitions are Ampel, Jamaika, Grossekoalition, Kenya and Deutschland. All of them are mixed coalitions. We can expect long negotiations after each federal election.

R2G may still be an option for 2025 or beyond. I don't think the AfD will never be in any coalition since that wouldn't be sustainable (aside from all parties ruling it out).

I also wouldn't label the FDP as right-wing or count them to any block. FDP sees itsself as centrist party with classical liberalism as basic philosophy. It's a bit closer to the CDU on economic issues and closer to the SPD and Greens on cultural issues.

The current party system makes it increasingly difficult for parties to form governments of a pure left or right bloc.

Similar to the Weimar Republic, in which coalitions including SPD and conservative parties were usual

[Pick Up the Phone]

Maybe, there will be neither pure left-wing nor pure right-wing ruling coalition at the national level so soon. What do you think?
Possible pure right-wing coalitions are CDU/CSU+FDP+Afd or CDU/CSU+FDP
Possible pure left-wing coalitions are SPD+Grüne+Linke or SPD+Grüne
We don't expect CDU/CDU+FDP or SPD+Grüne to have >50% of the seats of the Bundestag in the short term, and the AfD and the Linke are not considered coalition partners.

Possible coalitions are Ampel, Jamaika, Grossekoalition, Kenya and Deutschland. All of them are mixed coalitions. We can expect long negotiations after each federal election.

R2G may still be an option for 2025 or beyond. I don't think the AfD will never be in any coalition since that wouldn't be sustainable (aside from all parties ruling it out).

I also wouldn't label the FDP as right-wing or count them to any block. FDP sees itsself as centrist party with classical liberalism as basic philosophy. It's a bit closer to the CDU on economic issues and closer to the SPD and Greens on cultural issues.

The current party system makes it increasingly difficult for parties to form governments of a pure left or right bloc.

Interesting. I think it is quite clear that the AfD will never be a coalition partner for either CDU or FDP. At least not in its current form. The party is way too toxic and even Merz is clearly going for the center.

There is no future for the far right in Germany.

But I strongly agree with regard to the FDP. It would be grotesquely misleading to view it as a right-wing party. In fact, it has plenty of similarities with the Greens (composition of the electorate, social and cultural policies, centrist leanings) but almost none with the AfD. It's more or less a German D66 at this point.

If I were to make a prediction, I would say the following:

(A) It is rather likely that the era of two party coalitions is over for good.
(B) It is also likely that the era of 'bloc politics' is over as well. To many in the center-left camp, 'traffic light' is by now a much more logical option than 'Red-Red-Green'.

[President Johnson]

Small polling update here after it got pretty quiet in this thread.

The latest ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen found Olaf Scholz at 65% approval rating. Even 53% of CDU supporters approve of him. An earlier ARD poll had him at 60%, slightly higher than Schröder and Merkel after a month in office.

Voting preferences have changed little to previous polls:

SPD: 27%
Union: 22%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 11%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 6%
Others: 8%

Frank-Walter Steinmeier's favorability is at stunning 86%, 81% want him to serve a second term as president (his reelection is at the federal convention on February 13 is assured, being endorsed by Trafficlight coalition and CDU/CSU). Meanwhile, 40% believe Merz will be a successful CDU leader, 48% don't think so.


https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-corona-scholz-merz-atomenergie-100.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

As it is by now a long-standing tradition in that party, AfD federal chairman Jörg Meuthen has followed in the footsteps of his predecessors Frauke Petry and Bernd Lucke and left the AfD yesterday, citing a continuing rightward drift of his party as the reason. Along with his exit from the AfD he has obviousky also resigned as party leader, effective immediately.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's maybe worth pointing out that Germany has suddenly an overabundance of leading politcians of Iranian descent now, that seems to exceed those of Turkish or Arab descent, proportionally speaking.

Since last weekend, Omid Nouripour and Pegah Edalatian are the new co-chair (along with Ricarda Lang) and the new deputy co-chair (along with Heiko Knopf) of the Greens, respectively. Since December, Bijan Djir-Sarai has been the acting/designated general secretary of the FDP, scheduled to be formally elected by a convention in April. Meanwhile, former labour minister Yasmin Fahimi (SPD) is scheduled to become the head of Germany's largest federation of trade unions, the DGB. Ah, yes, and well-known/notorious Left Party maverick and frequent talkshow guest Sahrah Wagenknecht has of course always been half-Iranian too.

At least partially that's probably a late product of the brain drain in the wake of the Iranian revolution of '79 and the subsequent Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88. Nouripour's parents were both aeronautical engineers, Fahimi's dad was a chemist, Djir-Sarai grew up in Germany with his uncle, a veterinarian.

(As a personal sidenote, a couple of years back I was a member in a theater workshop coached by a German-Iranian. Her father had been a communist politician who got executed back in Iran. Another person of Iranian descent I know currently works in Berlin's state ministry for the environment and transportation.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Traffic light in DISARRAY...





Government approval rating at 38% (-8), Scholz approval rating at 43% (-17), Habeck approval rating at 39% (-9), Lindner approval rating at 43% (-6).


What happened? A combination of various factors

- "Whatever happened to Olaf Scholz"? The Chancellor is sometimes said to be absent when central decisions are required.

- Soaring energy prices, especially on gas, but also electrity. Inflation too.

- Continued indecision on what to do about Ukraine and Russia - except maybe where foreign minister Annalena Tough-on-Putin Baerbock is concerned who actually managed to get her approval rating up four points to 36%.

- Robert Habeck's botched management of an energy-efficient building renovation program that ran out. The running out of funding wasn't really his fault, but that of his predecessor Peter Altmaier. The way he first dealt with that fact and the search for funding for follow-up programms for people who are currently renovating their homes was a bit of a desaster though, especially on the communications side.


On the plus side... Germany's most popular politician continues to be health minister Karl Lauterbach - even though he's also down seven points and now at 59% - followed by agriculture minister Cem Özdemir (44%, down nine points). And new CDU leader Friedrich Merz' approval rating is only at 37% (+5).

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Love that we posted within two minutes of each other in separate threads

But anyways, what a sudden turnaround in just a few weeks:

The latest ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen found Olaf Scholz at 65% approval rating. Even 53% of CDU supporters approve of him. An earlier ARD poll had him at 60%, slightly higher than Schröder and Merkel after a month in office.

Scholz approval rating at 43%

[Rob Bloom]

Berlin, Bundestag 2021, second vote, by precinct.

https://twitter.com/weidenberger/status/1517954156824256512?s=20&t=HIfLwW8kE...

[Mike88]

10 months after surpassing the Greens and the Union in the polls, SPD is back in third place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1527530766850306048