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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 214078 times)
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2500 on: October 18, 2021, 09:44:59 AM »

As this hasn't been done before (at least I think so), here is the Bundesländer result map:


Schleswig-Holstein remains Germany's bellwether state No. 1; this Land has mostly (barring twice) voted for the party of the overall winning chancellor candidate.
Schleswig-Holstein moreover contains Germany's bellwether constituency No. 1: Pinneberg (No. 7), which has always sent the district candidate of the overall winning chancellor candidate's party to the Bundestag via direct mandate. (It would technically be wrong to say that this district has always given its first vote to the new chancellor's party. Take a guess why...)

Another remarkable result is Rhineland-Palatinate having voted SPD for only the second time.

The biggest surprise for me is the fact that the AfD somehow managed to receive more than 5% in every single state.

SPD
Best: Saarland (37.3%)
Worst: Bavaria (18.0%)
CDU/CSU
Best: Bavaria (31.7%)
Worst: Brandenburg (15.3%)
Grüne
Best: Hamburg (24.9%)
Worst: Saarland (0%)
[Saxony-Anhalt (6.5%)]

FDP
Best: Baden-Wurttemberg (15.3%)
Worst: Berlin (8.1%)
AfD
Best: Saxony (24.6%)
Worst: Hamburg (5.03%)
Linke
Best: Berlin (11.45%)
Worst: Bavaria (2.8%)

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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #2501 on: October 18, 2021, 10:23:34 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2021, 11:42:17 AM by Geoffrey Howe »

The FDP's result in Saxony vis-à-vis the rest of the East sticks out there.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #2502 on: October 19, 2021, 01:47:28 AM »


Is the middle part that is all red one large conurbation being built up in the entire area or is there some countryside in that.  Likewise for the black areas along periphery, how rural are they?  I know they have lower population densities but still seem to have plenty of smaller cities.  I have driven through the black areas and seemed mostly countryside but usually Autobahns in Germany tend to have trees along the side to block off side so hard to tell.

There is also Lippe (in North-East corner of NRW) that is few places in Germany with strong Calvinist tradition. Like Auerk in North Western Germany, that is also Calvinist and SPD country.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #2503 on: October 19, 2021, 02:03:09 AM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

The litmus test won't be about coal; the crucial question will be if the FDP is going to cave in to pressure from SPD and Greens regarding the speed limit question...

I sure hope not.  One of the things I love about renting a car in Europe and driving in Germany is fact I can drive at over 200 km/h.  Its only place on earth I can legally do this, so I really hope that stays.

I cannot make a judgment on your driving skills, but generally, foreign drivers who drive at a speed they are not trained for or used to for the sake of driving very, very fast can lead to very dangerous situations on the Autobahn.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2504 on: October 19, 2021, 05:08:05 AM »

The next and final phase of coalition talks is going to start at the end of this week and then probably continue for a couple weeks throughout November. A collapse of the negotiations seems at this point unlikely, but since they will now be about hammering out all the details it is gonna take a while. Afterwards, the Greens are planning a membership referendum on joining Traffic light coalition while the FDP will be holding a party congress (SPD might do either one of the two). This will take some additional weeks which means we'll have arrived in December when the new Chancellor is formally elected by the Bundestag. Meanwhile the inevitable Christian Lindner vs. Robert Habeck battle on who of the two is gonna be finance minister has aready started recently.
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« Reply #2505 on: October 19, 2021, 05:26:57 AM »

Who are likely to become Foreign Affairs Minister in new government?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2506 on: October 19, 2021, 06:27:50 AM »

Who are likely to become Foreign Affairs Minister in new government?

The kind of obvious choice that comes to mind is Annalena Baerbock. But maybe the Greens will trade it away for something better, who knows?
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« Reply #2507 on: October 19, 2021, 06:57:09 AM »

Who are likely to become Foreign Affairs Minister in new government?

The kind of obvious choice that comes to mind is Annalena Baerbock. But maybe the Greens will trade it away for something better, who knows?

I really hope they are going to choose Cem Özdemir for Foreign Minister. He speaks two more languages than ACAB, plus he's a fierce opponent of Atals' favorite dictator Sultan Erdogan; he could stand up to him in their own mother tongue during official talks and negotiations.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2508 on: October 19, 2021, 02:17:51 PM »

Who are likely to become Foreign Affairs Minister in new government?

The kind of obvious choice that comes to mind is Annalena Baerbock. But maybe the Greens will trade it away for something better, who knows?

I really hope they are going to choose Cem Özdemir for Foreign Minister. He speaks two more languages than ACAB, plus he's a fierce opponent of Atals' favorite dictator Sultan Erdogan; he could stand up to him in their own mother tongue during official talks and negotiations.

I hope Cem Özdemir replaces Winfried Kretschmann as Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg in the coming years, or certainly well ahead of the 2026 election.  

Baerbock is going to be Foreign Minister unless the ministry goes to the FDP. In that case, I think Alexander Graf Lambsdorff is the obvious choice since he's the party's foreign policy expert who has also experience in the European parliament. He'd certainly be a good pick and quite frankly is among my favorite FDP politicians.

More interesting is the question who willbe Finance Minister, Christian Lindner or Robert Habeck. Several FDP members have already suggested Lindner for the position, just to get rebuffed by the Greens. Usually cabinet positions are among the last issues decided during formal coalition negotations.

Another important position to be filled is Defense Minister and I'm relatively certain Lars Klingbeil will be chosen. He managed an excellent SPD campaign as General Secretary and is an expert in defense issues. Scholz will definitely reward him for his work over most recent months.
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« Reply #2509 on: October 19, 2021, 04:04:53 PM »

I hope Cem Özdemir replaces Winfried Kretschmann as Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg in the coming years, or certainly well ahead of the 2026 election.

Speaking of upcoming Green minister-presidents, I kind of "hope" that Habeck does have governorship ambitions (against all speculations), as the alternative would be devastating...

Baerbock is going to be Foreign Minister unless the ministry goes to the FDP. In that case, I think Alexander Graf Lambsdorff is the obvious choice since he's the party's foreign policy expert who has also experience in the European parliament. He'd certainly be a good pick and quite frankly is among my favorite FDP politicians.

Who do you think is going to occupy the Environment/Climate Ministry? I was always expecting ACAB to claim that office.

More interesting is the question who willbe Finance Minister, Christian Lindner or Robert Habeck. Several FDP members have already suggested Lindner for the position, just to get rebuffed by the Greens. Usually cabinet positions are among the last issues decided during formal coalition negotations.

I think it's beyond dispute that Lindner will be granted the Finance Ministry. Please note that it's the FDP that has to make the most compromises/concessions within an Ampel coalition. Moreover, Lindner already conceded the establishment of a veto-powered" climate ministry" to the Greens.

Another important position to be filled is Defense Minister and I'm relatively certain Lars Klingbeil will be chosen. He managed an excellent SPD campaign as General Secretary and is an expert in defense issues. Scholz will definitely reward him for his work over most recent months.

I also think that it's a deal cast in stone that that Brigitte Nielsen doppelganger from Düsseldorf will be granted the Ministry of Defense. Unlike him and both her predecessors, she is proficient in military issues.
Plus, keep in mind that the FDP can claim about four departments. If the SPD lay claim to the Hardthöhe, and the Greens claim the exchequer, there isn't much to remain for the FDP. Which ministries, beside the foreign affairs portfolio, would be left for the Free Democrats in your estimation?
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« Reply #2510 on: October 19, 2021, 05:41:52 PM »

In case Habeck doesn't get the finance ministry he'll likely take over a new "super ministry" for  environment/climate/energy, as reported by Tagesspiegel (https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/die-fehler-der-vergangenheit-als-lehre-die-komplizierte-operation-klimaministerium/27719432.html) and because he had already led a similar ministry up in Schleswig-Holstein.

Baerbock is the more logical choice for the foreign ministry, because she has been a member of the Bundestag's European affairs committee since 2013 and prior to that she had led the Green party's working group on European policy for five years.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2511 on: October 20, 2021, 02:57:08 AM »

Meanwhile, the seating arrangements between the different parliamentary group within the plenary hall has been plunged into controversy.
The FDP wants to move to left, between Greens and Union, away from the AfD, in order to be closer to the new coalition partner and in order to signalize that they intent on forming a coalition "representing the middle class". The Union, particularly the CSU, refuses that the FDP's request steadfastly.
A similar dispute was sparked four years ago; it was obviously lost by the FDP.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2512 on: October 20, 2021, 03:07:26 AM »

Meanwhile, the seating arrangements between the different parliamentary group within the plenary hall has been plunged into controversy.
The FDP wants to move to left, between Greens and Union, away from the AfD, in order to be closer to the new coalition partner and in order to signalize that they intent on forming a coalition "representing the middle class". The Union, particularly the CSU, refuses that the FDP's request steadfastly.
A similar dispute was sparked four years ago; it was obviously lost by the FDP.

The FDP is also justifiying the request by a demand to move away from the verbal harassment they allegedly had received from the AfD members in the previous four years.
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« Reply #2513 on: October 20, 2021, 04:15:47 AM »

Another issue that didn't receive a lot of attention since formal trafficlight coalition talks were agreed to: Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now a lot closer to a second term as president. The FDP already expressed support for his reelection in March 2022. Trafficlight parties have a majority of the federal convention that elects the president (all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors sent by states, according to Landtag compositions). The Greens are rumored to have favored a woman for the presidency, but I assume they will join SPD and FDP in support for Steinmeier. With a Jamaica coalition, his fate would have been much more in question.

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president. Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.

Bärbel Bas from Duisburg is reported to become the new Bundestags President.
She will be the third Social Democrat and the thrid woman to hold that office.
Bas has been a member of the Bundestag since 2009.
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Astatine
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« Reply #2514 on: October 20, 2021, 01:01:07 PM »

Meanwhile, the seating arrangements between the different parliamentary group within the plenary hall has been plunged into controversy.
The FDP wants to move to left, between Greens and Union, away from the AfD, in order to be closer to the new coalition partner and in order to signalize that they intent on forming a coalition "representing the middle class". The Union, particularly the CSU, refuses that the FDP's request steadfastly.
A similar dispute was sparked four years ago; it was obviously lost by the FDP.
In every single state legislature, the CDU is sitting next to the AfD:

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President Johnson
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« Reply #2515 on: October 20, 2021, 01:55:01 PM »

Another issue that didn't receive a lot of attention since formal trafficlight coalition talks were agreed to: Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now a lot closer to a second term as president. The FDP already expressed support for his reelection in March 2022. Trafficlight parties have a majority of the federal convention that elects the president (all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors sent by states, according to Landtag compositions). The Greens are rumored to have favored a woman for the presidency, but I assume they will join SPD and FDP in support for Steinmeier. With a Jamaica coalition, his fate would have been much more in question.

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president. Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.

Bärbel Bas from Duisburg is reported to become the new Bundestags President.
She will be the third Social Democrat and the thrid woman to hold that office.
Bas has been a member of the Bundestag since 2009.

Even more good news for Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Had Bundestag president been a man, there might have been more pressure to replace him with a woman next year. I never heard of Bas, but seems she's a pretty solid choice. Aydan Özoğuz was also floated for the position and is now expected to be nominated for Bundestag vice president (apparently the SPD is also entitled to fill one vice presidential position).

And yes, SPD and Greens should absolutely vote to move the FDP caucus to the center. Even Die Linke has expressed symapthy for the FDP's desire to be seated between Greens and Union. 
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palandio
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« Reply #2516 on: October 20, 2021, 02:54:28 PM »


Well, maybe it would make sense to make another map with the Free Voters separated from the other "Others", because they seem to dominate a lot of what is going on here, but whatever...

(Btw as anyone can see, I'm using Al's fabulous constituency map as a base map. I assume that as long as this remains within the Atlas forum, the watermark remains and the map content is fine, this meets his approval.)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2517 on: October 20, 2021, 03:13:27 PM »

Another INSA poll has the Union at 18.5%. Lmao.

SPD: 28,0%
Union: 18,5%
GRÜNE: 16,0%
FDP: 15,0%
AfD: 11,5%
LINKE: 5,0%
Others: 6,0%


https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1450118842987032576


Even Allensbach with some CDU house effect is only at 21%, trailing Social Democrats by seven points. CDU/CSU are in very deep trouble.

BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Allensbach/FAZ

SPD: 28,0% (+2,3)
Union: 21,0% (-3,1)
GRÜNE: 15,0% (+0,2)
FDP: 14,0% (+2,5)
AfD: 9,5% (-0,8)
LINKE: 5,0% (+0,1)
Others: 7,5 (-1,2)


https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1450710592524890117
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« Reply #2518 on: October 21, 2021, 07:20:36 AM »

Meanwhile, the seating arrangements between the different parliamentary group within the plenary hall has been plunged into controversy.
The FDP wants to move to left, between Greens and Union, away from the AfD, in order to be closer to the new coalition partner and in order to signalize that they intent on forming a coalition "representing the middle class". The Union, particularly the CSU, refuses that the FDP's request steadfastly.
A similar dispute was sparked four years ago; it was obviously lost by the FDP.
In every single state legislature, the CDU is sitting next to the AfD:

Interestingly, also in Saxony-Anhalt. Is that new?
Wasn't there a fierce dispute going on between the newly elected Greens and the CDU-led Landtag presidium five years ago? I thought the Greens had to sit next to the AfD in the end. How was that settled? Or did I miss something?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2519 on: October 21, 2021, 07:56:16 AM »

Does anybody know where I can get a map displaying the winner of the second vote in each county? I don't know why it's so hard/impossible to find such a map.

We have so many users with awesome software prowess around here. Would they mind compiling a county map from their data archive? 🥺
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2520 on: October 21, 2021, 08:51:49 AM »

FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said that they're planning to wrap up the coalition negotiations until the end of November with the election and inauguration of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor intended for the week of December 6.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2521 on: October 21, 2021, 08:55:59 AM »

FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said that they're planning to wrap up the coalition negotiations until the end of November with the election and inauguration of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor intended for the week of December 6.

So Merkel narrowly misses to become longest serving chancellor ever?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2522 on: October 21, 2021, 08:56:35 AM »

Merkel just misses out on that record, then?
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« Reply #2523 on: October 21, 2021, 09:02:55 AM »

Merkel just misses out on that record, then?

Yeah, if all goes as laid out today Merkel has been screwed by the Traffic light. Wink
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2524 on: October 21, 2021, 01:02:50 PM »

FDP secretary-general Volker Wissing has said that they're planning to wrap up the coalition negotiations until the end of November with the election and inauguration of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor intended for the week of December 6.

Chancellor Scholz incoming, that's awesome news.

Wissing also said the reason for this schedule is to make sure Germany has a fully functioning government again as soon as possible. Say what you want, but it speaks volumes about political culture that all participating parties and their leaders are taking reliable governance serious and with great responsibility. Although not everything is perfect here, that's a stark contrast to many other countries in Europe and even more so around the world.

I think this schedule furthermore shows that the involved people in positions of responsibility in all three parties have already build a personal foundation of trust, which is very important in a coalition government. Especially when developments occur that were never part of any coalition agreement (pandemic, natural disaster, economic crash, foreign crisis etc.).
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