Trafalgar: Heller +3

[Calthrina950]

People are letting their overconfidence show through again by immediately dismissing this poll. It is not over until it's over. While I firmly believe, based upon the early turnout numbers, that Rosen will win at this point, I don't think celebration is yet warranted.

[Calthrina950]

People are letting their overconfidence show through again by immediately dismissing this poll. It is not over until it's over. While I firmly believe, based upon the early turnout numbers, that Rosen will win at this point, I don't think celebration is yet warranted.

I'm agreeing with you. While Rosen certainly has the edge it's never over until it's over.

The same has to be kept in mind for all of the other competitive races. The early turnout numbers in Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Florida do not tell us what will happen in those states.

[Calthrina950]

And if Heller doesn't win the argument will be "let's wait until there is an investigation to see if there was fraud, it isn't over until it's over". We know Trump will claim fraud the minute things go wrong for Republicans and some on Atlas will believe him.

Where did you get the idea about fraud? I've made clear my belief that Rosen will win, but I am frustrated by the Atlas community's tendency to disregard any views that contradict their own, such as in polls.

[Calthrina950]

And if Heller doesn't win the argument will be "let's wait until there is an investigation to see if there was fraud, it isn't over until it's over". We know Trump will claim fraud the minute things go wrong for Republicans and some on Atlas will believe him.

Where did you get the idea about fraud? I've made clear my belief that Rosen will win, but I am frustrated by the Atlas community's tendency to disregard any views that contradict their own, such as in polls.

Because that is the Republican/Trump refrain (he claimed he only lost California because of illegal votes).

I'm aware that many in the Republican base hold this belief. I, obviously, do not, and this was not even what I was thinking about when sharing my views about this poll.