On the bright side both Nelson and Gillum lead in the early vote according to this poll...
Actually, that's not "bright" at all if you're a Democrat, because it suggests yet another redux of past years where Democrats do well in the early vote and then fall to a Republican surge on Election Day. This is the second FL poll to suggest that Republicans have a potentially rich pool of Election Day votes.
They aren't "suggesting" a rich pool...they are modeling an electorate. Let me put it this way: in order for Scott and DeSantis to win (if we assume the early vote is to the D's) they need NPA's to break their way. Look at the 2016 exits - how did Trump win Florida when Clinton won the early vote even though the R's had a registration advantage? The late deciders broke his way (55-38), white college women broke his way (60-37) and the Indies broke his way (47-43).
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president
