MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.
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May 07, 2021, 09:13:04 AM

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  MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.
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Author Topic: MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.  (Read 3060 times)
I Grew Up On A Farm BEEP Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock 👁️
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2018, 01:49:27 PM »

I dunno why people suddenly seem so optimistic about McCaskill. She could still easily lose... this poll only has it tied, she is not even ahead.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2018, 01:50:55 PM »

McCaskill winning by the skin of her teeth in a big Dem wave hardly bodes well for Jones in a state that is far more Republican, far less elastic, far more racially polarized, and during an unknown political climate when Trump is guaranteed to carry the state by at least 20 points simultaneously.

Jones is a far stronger incumbent than McCaskill (like, not even close), has better approval numbers, and the state isn’t as "inelastic" as you’re making it out to be (or else Jones wouldn’t be Senator right now or have similar approval ratings as Richard Shelby). Bottom line: Writing off a Democratic incumbent in a red state two years before the election is never a good idea, and rating it "Safe R" is downright crazy. Hawley is hardly an Akin tier candidate, and he’s still struggling badly in this race.
I agree with MT here. If Jones wasnt popular, like CO Senator Gardner, then it would make sense to write him off. But Jones is doing really well in AL, and the Rs in the state will, most likely, not make the best choice in the primary.

I say lean R, but it could easily go to Jones.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2018, 02:02:15 PM »

I dunno why people suddenly seem so optimistic about McCaskill. She could still easily lose... this poll only has it tied, she is not even ahead.
It's at least an improvement from where she was. But yeah. This still isn't her race to lose or anything.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2018, 02:05:42 PM »

I dunno why people suddenly seem so optimistic about McCaskill. She could still easily lose... this poll only has it tied, she is not even ahead.

Because the previous version of the poll had Hawley up 4. And FOX also showed a tie, so she's on a positive trajectory. I can't speak for anyone else, but it's nice to see she still has a good chance going into election day rather than being a significant underdog. Obviously she could easily still lose.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2018, 02:11:48 PM »

McCaskill will pull it out
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2018, 05:31:58 PM »

The polls actually underestimated mcCaskill six years ago.
She will win by 1-3 %
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2018, 09:03:59 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2018, 09:22:24 PM by Calthrina950 »

McCaskill winning by the skin of her teeth in a big Dem wave hardly bodes well for Jones in a state that is far more Republican, far less elastic, far more racially polarized, and during an unknown political climate when Trump is guaranteed to carry the state by at least 20 points simultaneously.

Jones is a far stronger incumbent than McCaskill (like, not even close), has better approval numbers, and the state isn’t as "inelastic" as you’re making it out to be (or else Jones wouldn’t be Senator right now or have similar approval ratings as Richard Shelby). Bottom line: Writing off a Democratic incumbent in a red state two years before the election is never a good idea, and rating it "Safe R" is downright ridiculous. Hawley is hardly an Akin tier candidate, and he’s still struggling badly in this race.

IceSpear is right. Jones was only elected because of the pedophilia allegations against Roy Moore. Were it not for those allegations, he would have lost by at least 5-10 points, and possibly more. Jones is DOA in 2020, so long as the Republican running against him is not Roy Moore. That is part of the reason why he voted against Kavanaugh-because he understands that he has no chance, whatsoever, in winning reelection. Jones is a one-term Senator, and he will be the first to lose if he runs for reelection. He is by far the most vulnerable Senator of the next cycle, even more vulnerable than Gardner, and could very well be blanched.
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2016
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2018, 09:10:05 PM »


If you believe Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Report BOTH, Republican & Democratic Campaign Polling have McCaskill down. Also, Hawley isn't Todd Akin.

"Of the five Democratic-held seats in Toss Up, U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri appears to be in the most danger of losing her seat to Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley. Both Republican and Democratic polling show her trailing Hawley, although the parties differ on how much. A Democratic-affiliated outside group has dropped mail promoting the conservative virtues of independent Craig O’Dear in an effort to siphon votes away from Hawley."
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2018, 10:58:55 PM »

This is a perfect time for her to surge, here's hoping these numbers hold and Hawley doesn't win.
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