McCaskill winning by the skin of her teeth in a big Dem wave hardly bodes well for Jones in a state that is far more Republican, far less elastic, far more racially polarized, and during an unknown political climate when Trump is guaranteed to carry the state by at least 20 points simultaneously.
Jones is a far stronger incumbent than McCaskill (like, not even close), has better approval numbers, and the state isn’t as "inelastic" as you’re making it out to be (or else Jones wouldn’t be Senator right now or have similar approval ratings as Richard Shelby). Bottom line: Writing off a Democratic incumbent in a red state two years before the election is never a good idea, and rating it "Safe R" is downright ridiculous. Hawley is hardly an Akin tier candidate, and he’s still struggling badly in this race.
IceSpear is right. Jones was only elected because of the pedophilia allegations against Roy Moore. Were it not for those allegations, he would have lost by at least 5-10 points, and possibly more. Jones is DOA in 2020, so long as the Republican running against him is not Roy Moore. That is part of the reason why he voted against Kavanaugh-because he understands that he has no chance, whatsoever, in winning reelection. Jones is a one-term Senator, and he will be the first to lose if he runs for reelection. He is by far the most vulnerable Senator of the next cycle, even more vulnerable than Gardner, and could very well be blanched.
