The Kavanaugh bump (which was real in Senate races, less so in the House), appears to be receding at the worst possible time for the GOP
I'd rather say that McCaskill's efforts defining Hawley as "Empty Suit" and "Carpetbeggar" are quite effiective while he is unable to counter these. McCaskill made herself immune to Mr Trump's appeal to the anti-ímmigration rhetorics by simply supporting him 100 % and delivering this message.
I am still not convinced that she will win in the end yet I acknolwedge her fighting instincts which seem to be intact. She reversed the worrisome trend of late October but it is unclear if this 11th hour effort will be enough.
Mr Hawley does not appear to be a born fighter, rather "born with a silver foot in his mouth".
I do not know if this poll is accurate, but the trend of Delta=+4 % for Mrs McCaskill cetainly is real.
