MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest. (user search)
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  MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest. (search mode)
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Author Topic: MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.  (Read 3153 times)
new_patomic
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« on: November 03, 2018, 10:40:50 AM »

Net gain of 4 for McCaskill since Remington's last poll in October.

It does seem that whatever 'Kavanaugh Bump' there was here has faded.
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new_patomic
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Posts: 842


« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 12:25:04 PM »

Remington underestimated Trump's margin in 2016

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Michigan

Undecideds will break for Hawley and they are likely overestimating McCaskill's performance...Hawley will win by +7

Actually, it is true that Remington has a Democratic bias. According to FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, Remington has overestimated Democrats by an average of 1.1% relative to historical election results.

At least for their adjusted polls average, they're saying Remington is biased against Democrats to the tune of... 4.5 points. So they're saying this poll is McCaskill +4.5.

Not that I'm really putting much faith in their adjustments versus the simple average.
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new_patomic
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Posts: 842


« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 02:02:15 PM »

I dunno why people suddenly seem so optimistic about McCaskill. She could still easily lose... this poll only has it tied, she is not even ahead.
It's at least an improvement from where she was. But yeah. This still isn't her race to lose or anything.
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