MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.

[MT Treasurer]

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

[MT Treasurer]

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

What are you talking about? I am like for sure that Hawley will win at the end based on logic.

If McCaskill and Bredesen are tied at this point, they’re more likely than not to win on election day, and NV+AZ+TN-ND (although I could see Heitkamp winning if the wave is big enough) gets them to 51. That’s assuming that polling is accurate and not underestimating Republican strength, which we obviously don’t know.

[MT Treasurer]

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

And yet we have people here who unironically believe that Doug Jones is DOA in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill winning by the skin of her teeth in a big Dem wave hardly bodes well for Jones in a state that is far more Republican, far less elastic, far more racially polarized, and during an unknown political climate when Trump is guaranteed to carry the state by at least 20 points simultaneously.

Jones is a far stronger incumbent than McCaskill (like, not even close), has better approval numbers, and the state isn’t as "inelastic" as you’re making it out to be (or else Jones wouldn’t be Senator right now or have similar approval ratings as Richard Shelby). Bottom line: Writing off a Democratic incumbent in a red state two years before the election is never a good idea, and rating it "Safe R" is downright ridiculous. Hawley is hardly an Akin tier candidate, and he’s still struggling badly in this race.