VT-Gravis: Scott +10

[Tintrlvr]

Not reaching 50%

And that’s the whole ballgame. If the legislature get to decide, who knows how it plays out.

Does the legislature choose if there's no majority instead of having a runoff?

Yes, but polling at 49% with 12% undecided Scott would definitely end up over 50%. There are a bunch of other candidates on the ballot (a Liberty Union* candidate and four independents), but no one of consequence. The Progressives did not nominate a candidate. The minor candidates will get no more than 5% between them, and that is probably generous.

*A left-wing democratic socialist party operating only in Vermont, for those unfamiliar.

[Tintrlvr]

The Vermont Legislature will not overturn the will of the people.  If Gov. Scott get 48% and Ms. Hillquist get 44%,  They will support Scott.

This is probably true, although it depends to some degree on the relative margin between the candidates and how strong third parties were. In your scenario, if the Liberty Union candidate got 6% or more (not likely), so that clearly left-wing candidates won a majority of the vote together, the legislature might be tempted to choose Hallquist. The last time a similar scenario happened (Republican wins only a plurality, Democrats control the legislature), in 2002, the legislature chose the Republican with 45% over the Democrat with 42%, but the Democrat conceded the race before the legislature voted and did not try to convince the legislature to vote for him. In that race, the primary other vote-getter was independent Cornelius Hogan with 10% of the vote, who to my understanding was a centrist candidate.