GA-UGA: Tie (user search)
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Author Topic: GA-UGA: Tie  (Read 1739 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: November 01, 2018, 05:31:21 PM »

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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 06:02:13 PM »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
Uh, what?!  Isn't that demographic supposed to be pro-Abrams?!


Even in 2016, there wasn't that big of a gap based on education in GA. Perhaps the word "white" is also supposed to be there, but even if not, if Kemp is winning two-thirds of white female college grads and, say, 15% of non-white female college grads, that'd mean he's winning anywhere from 47-54% of that demographic (depending on how much education is skewed racially in favor of whites).
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 06:04:47 PM »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

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https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580



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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 06:21:09 PM »

I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.

32% among white women is a damn good figure (if true) for Georgia - especially when you remember that like half of them live in communities where whites are more Republican than Latinos are Democratic, and another quarter live in communities where whites are as Republican as blacks are Democratic.

For it to be at 27% in this poll, that means Abrams is winning 23% of white men (let's hope so). Those are winning numbers.
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