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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL St Pete's: Nelson +2
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Author Topic: FL St Pete's: Nelson +2  (Read 1024 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: November 01, 2018, 08:18:25 am »

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/279703-st-pete-polls-bill-nelson

Nelson 49
Scott 47
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 08:27:50 am »

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 08:33:22 am »

They’ve been stuck at a narrow Scott lead most of the cycle, so this is good news.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 09:05:57 am »

Tilt D.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 09:09:05 am »

The nail in the coffin
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 09:09:55 am »

Bye bye Voldemort!
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2018, 09:11:41 am »


Heck Yes!
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2018, 09:12:15 am »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2018, 11:26:02 am »

Either Nelson really is up 2 and everyone has suddenly become experts at polling Florida, or there is some weird herding going on here.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2018, 11:27:46 am »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?

Luckily (I mean that in a non-political sense), the hurricane only directly effected a very small % of Florida's population (like close to 3%). I don't think a lot of people took that into account.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2018, 12:13:26 pm »

Either Nelson really is up 2 and everyone has suddenly become experts at polling Florida, or there is some weird herding going on here.



Hahahahaha wtf
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UWS
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 12:39:36 pm »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?

Don't underestimate Scott.

Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida
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KingSweden
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 12:40:38 pm »


Inject this post in my veins
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2018, 12:42:35 pm »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?

Don't underestimate Scott.

Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida

Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing.
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UWS
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2018, 12:44:07 pm »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?

Don't underestimate Scott.

Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida

Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing.

Don't be so sure. Trump's job approval rating are getting better and better in Florida and this poll was published before Trump's yesterday rally for Scott in Fort Myers, Florida.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2018, 12:45:30 pm »

Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election.
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SN2903
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2018, 12:53:13 pm »

Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election.
No most of the Florida polls were favorable to Hillary in 2016 and Trump won. GOP is getting good turnout in Florida lately. Scott will eek it out.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2018, 12:56:57 pm »

Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election.
No most of the Florida polls were favorable to Hillary in 2016 and Trump won. GOP is getting good turnout in Florida lately. Scott will eek it out.

Bill Nelson is not Hillary Clinton, and Rick "Plurality" Scott isn't going to skate by with a win in the 40s this time.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2018, 12:58:59 pm »

Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election.
No most of the Florida polls were favorable to Hillary in 2016 and Trump won. GOP is getting good turnout in Florida lately. Scott will eek it out.
Trump led the FL polling average lmao
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2018, 12:59:26 pm »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?

Don't underestimate Scott.

Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida

Saying that "this thing happened this one other year so it'll happen this year too!" is a pretty clear sign that you're losing.

Don't be so sure. Trump's job approval rating are getting better and better in Florida and this poll was published before Trump's yesterday rally for Scott in Fort Myers, Florida.

Heh, well, I'm at least aware of the possibility that Tuesday night might not be great for the Democrats, I'd suggest you prepare yourself for the (stronger) possibility of it being bad for Republicans. Not every election is going to go down like 2016.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2018, 01:00:49 pm »

I mean, Trump only won this state by 1 against a hilariously (no pun intended) weak opponent, so Nelson winning by 2 in a better year for Democrats should come as no real surprise. He doesn’t even need to flip any Trump voters to win.
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Mondale
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2018, 01:02:21 pm »

Nelson wins by 4-5. This'll be one race we all look back on and laugh about after the election.
No most of the Florida polls were favorable to Hillary in 2016 and Trump won. GOP is getting good turnout in Florida lately. Scott will eek it out.

Man...are you guys ever going to stop talking about Hillary and 2016. Its totally different enviorment, fundamentals, enthusiasm, etc...
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Baki
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2018, 01:10:02 pm »

Yeah, the momentum definitely seems to be with Nelson. Remember when the hurricane was supposed to make Scott surge to a mid-high single digit lead?

Don't underestimate Scott.

Hillary Clinton too was up by 2 in Florida one week before the 2016 election and was leading in most of the Florida polls in October 2016 only to lose Florida to Donald Trump by 1 percentage point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Florida

Ok so - Scott barely won in a much better year for the GOP against a worse opponent, therefore he cannot possibly win now?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2018, 01:21:54 pm »

Just so we can put an end to this dumb debate: the polling averages for gubernatorial/presidential elections in FL for the final 2 weeks:

2008
Polling: Obama +2.8
Actual: Obama +2.8
DIFF: 0

2010
Polling: Scott +0.2
Actual: Scott +1.1
DIFF: 0.9 R

2012
Polling: Romney +1.4
Actual: Obama +0.9
DIFF 2.3 D

2014
Polling: Scott +0.4
Actual: Scott +1.1
DIFF 0.7 R

2016
Polling: Trump +0.4
Actual: Trump +1.2
DIFF 0.8 R

Aggregate polling in FL has actually been quite accurate historically - and certainly possess no statistically-significant bias against the GOP.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2018, 01:23:54 pm »

If they are above 1, they will be fine.
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