WV Senate Race Morrisey Closing The Gap (Down 45-40) in MetroNews Poll. (user search)
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  WV Senate Race Morrisey Closing The Gap (Down 45-40) in MetroNews Poll. (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Will Senator Morrisey Be A Thing?
#1
Yes
#2
No
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: WV Senate Race Morrisey Closing The Gap (Down 45-40) in MetroNews Poll.  (Read 3981 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: November 01, 2018, 02:04:14 AM »

Dems are way too confident about this race. A last second Morrisey surge was always a strong possibility. You can't count on Racist WV Hicks to support a member of the anti-white hate group. A lot of people might end up owing me and Bagel an apology if this poll is accurate, lol.

We haven't gotten a high quality poll of this race since June. Is it really too much to ask for at least one before the election?!
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 02:35:43 AM »

Yikes. Pretty sure this poll almost always overestimates Dems. Manchin better hope they don’t this time!

He should probably hope they're just a junky pollster rather than have a Dem bias.

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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 10:52:49 AM »

For crying out loud, Manchin's up 12 in the RCP average, 8.9% in 538 adjusted polls and 8.4% in the 538 forecast overall. The fundamentals(or #trashdamentals if you're an Atlas poster that expects 538 to cater to your every whim) have Manchin at 7.7% lead. He's a great fit for a ticket-splitting state against a weak opponent in a Democratic year(and in case you need reminding, this guy won by double digits in 2010 and by 24 points in 2012-the same year Obama was on the ballot). And he even voted for Kavanaugh, which the same culprits claimed was a HUGE DEAL. Stop the bed-wetting and concern-trolling. He's not going to lose.

His lead was based on this poll and Emerson (both of which show Morrisey surging and Manchin up 5 now) and that junk poll that also showed DeSantis +3. That's why we need a good poll here, but I'm starting to think we aren't going to get one.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 02:58:01 PM »


Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 03:03:54 PM »

I don't get why IceSpear thinks a 5-point lead for Manchin "proves" he will lose but a 4-point lead for Blackburn is insurmountable. Especially with this being a Democratic year.

Let's just ignore the fundamentals of these states and the trendlines for each race, both of which are terrible for the Democrats.

Anyway, I don't think Manchin is guaranteed to lose. But he's more vulnerable than people here think, as I've been told constantly over the past year that this is a safe D race and he's guaranteed to win easily by double digits.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 03:16:35 PM »


Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!


Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

I didn't say Morrisey was a good candidate (in fact I think he's garbage), just that he's better than Raese. It's not hard to be better than Raese. Tongue

Anyway, there will be no Dem wave in WV, so the political climate doesn't mean much. Justice won because he was/is a Republican. In fact, the (D) next to his name weighed him down so much that he couldn't even get a majority of the vote despite fitting WV like a glove. All because he was (falsely) affiliated with the anti-white hate group.

Maybe Manchin can eke out a plurality win because enough of the voters who refuse to vote for the anti-white hate group vote third party/skip the race/do a write-in because they also find Morrisey abhorrent, but he's by no means safe.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2018, 03:35:29 PM »


No tsunami will be big enough to break the levee of Racist WV Hicks.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2018, 03:37:00 PM »

Here's a good example of some Manchin 2010/Manchin 2012/Morrisey 2018 voters.

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2018, 07:59:42 PM »

I'd be kind of worried if I were Manchin. Also, we haven't had any high quality polling for this race in a while.

This is the key. We haven't had a high quality poll of this race since June. June! The only thing there is to go by is the junk polls, both of which show Morrisey making up ground from their previous iterations.
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