WV Senate Race Morrisey Closing The Gap (Down 45-40) in MetroNews Poll.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_special_election_raese_vs_manchin-1673.html

You have got to get a grip

Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!

Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

[Doimper]

Manchin was never going to win in a landslide, but this is hardly a good poll for Morrisey. Democrats dodged a bullet here when GOP primary voters chose Morrisey instead of Jenkins.

Jenkins could have definitely won this. The WVGOP got screwed by closed primaries, pt. 3020494

[IceSpear]

I don't get why IceSpear thinks a 5-point lead for Manchin "proves" he will lose but a 4-point lead for Blackburn is insurmountable. Especially with this being a Democratic year.

Let's just ignore the fundamentals of these states and the trendlines for each race, both of which are terrible for the Democrats.

Anyway, I don't think Manchin is guaranteed to lose. But he's more vulnerable than people here think, as I've been told constantly over the past year that this is a safe D race and he's guaranteed to win easily by double digits.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think that this is the one state that Trump could have won for the GOP himself, since it's basically ground zero for his cult. I can't understand why Morrissey and the GOP don't have ads with Trump personally bashing Manchin running 24/7 in WV-03. I think it's too late for a "Trump surge" that others have predicted, and Manchin will pull off a 4-6 point win, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him win by a little more or a little less. It would surprise if Morrissey won at this point.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Me and my buddies in the pro-GOP group I manage think that if this were a video game, Manchin would be ranked as the most difficult red state Democrat to beat, so you'd have to go through Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester before you reach the West Virginia themed level filled where that John Denver song plays in the background to face Manchin.

[IceSpear]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_special_election_raese_vs_manchin-1673.html

You have got to get a grip

Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!

Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

I didn't say Morrisey was a good candidate (in fact I think he's garbage), just that he's better than Raese. It's not hard to be better than Raese.

Anyway, there will be no Dem wave in WV, so the political climate doesn't mean much. Justice won because he was/is a Republican. In fact, the (D) next to his name weighed him down so much that he couldn't even get a majority of the vote despite fitting WV like a glove. All because he was (falsely) affiliated with the anti-white hate group.

Maybe Manchin can eke out a plurality win because enough of the voters who refuse to vote for the anti-white hate group vote third party/skip the race/do a write-in because they also find Morrisey abhorrent, but he's by no means safe.

[libertpaulian]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_special_election_raese_vs_manchin-1673.html

You have got to get a grip

Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!

Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

I didn't say Morrisey was a good candidate (in fact I think he's garbage), just that he's better than Raese. It's not hard to be better than Raese.

Anyway, there will be no Dem wave in WV, so the political climate doesn't mean much. Justice won because he was/is a Republican. In fact, the (D) next to his name weighed him down so much that he couldn't even get a majority of the vote despite fitting WV like a glove. All because he was (falsely) affiliated with the anti-white hate group.

Maybe Manchin can eke out a plurality win because enough of the voters who refuse to vote for the anti-white hate group vote third party/skip the race/do a write-in because they also find Morrisey abhorrent, but he's by no means safe.

He's in slightly better shape than Tester and Donnelly, and I say that as one who is very bullish on Donnelly.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_special_election_raese_vs_manchin-1673.html

You have got to get a grip

Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!

Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

I didn't say Morrisey was a good candidate (in fact I think he's garbage), just that he's better than Raese. It's not hard to be better than Raese.

Anyway, there will be no Dem wave in WV, so the political climate doesn't mean much. Justice won because he was/is a Republican. In fact, the (D) next to his name weighed him down so much that he couldn't even get a majority of the vote despite fitting WV like a glove. All because he was (falsely) affiliated with the anti-white hate group.

Maybe Manchin can eke out a plurality win because enough of the voters who refuse to vote for the anti-white hate group vote third party/skip the race/do a write-in because they also find Morrisey abhorrent, but he's by no means safe.

You seem to be very pessimistic about Manchin's chances. Polls have consistently shown him to be the safest Romney-state Democrat throughout the year. Moreover, some recent polls showed him clearing the 50% mark. I wouldn't be too surprised if Morrisey ends up doing better than has been previously predicted, but I do not think that he will win at this point. Now, if Evan Jenkins had won the Republican nomination, I think Manchin would be on track to lose like Heitkamp.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

There will be a dem wave in WV.

[IceSpear]

There will be a dem wave in WV.

No tsunami will be big enough to break the levee of Racist WV Hicks.

[IceSpear]

Here's a good example of some Manchin 2010/Manchin 2012/Morrisey 2018 voters.

https://youtu.be/4Wroj0FLvzs

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't get why IceSpear thinks a 5-point lead for Manchin "proves" he will lose but a 4-point lead for Blackburn is insurmountable. Especially with this being a Democratic year.

Let's just ignore the fundamentals of these states and the trendlines for each race, both of which are terrible for the Democrats.

Anyway, I don't think Manchin is guaranteed to lose. But he's more vulnerable than people here think, as I've been told constantly over the past year that this is a safe D race and he's guaranteed to win easily by double digits.

As we saw in 2010, 2014, and 2016, fundamentals just don't matter when the results are decisively in favor of one party.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Me and my buddies in the pro-GOP group I manage think that if this were a video game, Manchin would be ranked as the most difficult red state Democrat to beat, so you'd have to go through Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester before you reach the West Virginia themed level filled where that John Denver song plays in the background to face Manchin.

Lol, reading this made my day.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305517.new#new

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is probably the Romney-Trump seat that I have been the least worried about this cycle (along with Montana) and that still seems to be the case.

[Skye]

I'd be kind of worried if I were Manchin. Also, we haven't had any high quality polling for this race in a while.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'd be kind of worried if I were Manchin. Also, we haven't had any high quality polling for this race in a while.

More and more people opening their eyes to reality by the day, good to see.

[IceSpear]

I'd be kind of worried if I were Manchin. Also, we haven't had any high quality polling for this race in a while.

This is the key. We haven't had a high quality poll of this race since June. June! The only thing there is to go by is the junk polls, both of which show Morrisey making up ground from their previous iterations.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'd be kind of worried if I were Manchin. Also, we haven't had any high quality polling for this race in a while.

This is the key. We haven't had a high quality poll of this race since June. June! The only thing there is to go by is the junk polls, both of which show Morrisey making up ground from their previous iterations.

But if someone took the time to poll WV we might have lost out on one of those 45 TX polls each showing the same thing.

[2016]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_special_election_raese_vs_manchin-1673.html

You have got to get a grip

Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!

Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

I didn't say Morrisey was a good candidate (in fact I think he's garbage), just that he's better than Raese. It's not hard to be better than Raese.

Anyway, there will be no Dem wave in WV, so the political climate doesn't mean much. Justice won because he was/is a Republican. In fact, the (D) next to his name weighed him down so much that he couldn't even get a majority of the vote despite fitting WV like a glove. All because he was (falsely) affiliated with the anti-white hate group.

Maybe Manchin can eke out a plurality win because enough of the voters who refuse to vote for the anti-white hate group vote third party/skip the race/do a write-in because they also find Morrisey abhorrent, but he's by no means safe.

You seem to be very pessimistic about Manchin's chances. Polls have consistently shown him to be the safest Romney-state Democrat throughout the year. Moreover, some recent polls showed him clearing the 50% mark. I wouldn't be too surprised if Morrisey ends up doing better than has been previously predicted, but I do not think that he will win at this point. Now, if Evan Jenkins had won the Republican nomination, I think Manchin would be on track to lose like Heitkamp.

West Virginia is still a State where we could have an upset. Reminds me of the Warner/Gillespie Race a bit. Trump wouldn't have gone to WV today if this weren't close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_special_election_raese_vs_manchin-1673.html

You have got to get a grip

Well, a few things.

1) The trendline was toward Manchin in the final week of 2010, it is against him in the final week of 2018.

2) Raese was a toxic candidate, far worse than Morrisey.

3) Raese didn't have WV's God Emperor enthusiastically supporting and holding rallies for him.

And most importantly:

4) 2010 was before a majority of West Virginia voters began to see all Democrats as irredeemable members of an anti-white hate group. The line of demarcation for this shifting of the paradigm was on November 7th, 2012. One day after Manchin was last on the ballot!

Morrisey is not a good candidate, lol. Let's look at some other differences.

1. 2010 was a GOP wave year.
2. The Democrats just elected a governor in 2016, he overpeformed Clinton by over 40 points as well. It doesn't matter if he is a republican now, he RAN as a democrat.
3. In 2010, there were some public polls that showed Manchin losing in the last month or so. The only poll we've seen with Manchin behind in this State in the past several months is......NRSC.

I didn't say Morrisey was a good candidate (in fact I think he's garbage), just that he's better than Raese. It's not hard to be better than Raese.

Anyway, there will be no Dem wave in WV, so the political climate doesn't mean much. Justice won because he was/is a Republican. In fact, the (D) next to his name weighed him down so much that he couldn't even get a majority of the vote despite fitting WV like a glove. All because he was (falsely) affiliated with the anti-white hate group.

Maybe Manchin can eke out a plurality win because enough of the voters who refuse to vote for the anti-white hate group vote third party/skip the race/do a write-in because they also find Morrisey abhorrent, but he's by no means safe.

You seem to be very pessimistic about Manchin's chances. Polls have consistently shown him to be the safest Romney-state Democrat throughout the year. Moreover, some recent polls showed him clearing the 50% mark. I wouldn't be too surprised if Morrisey ends up doing better than has been previously predicted, but I do not think that he will win at this point. Now, if Evan Jenkins had won the Republican nomination, I think Manchin would be on track to lose like Heitkamp.

West Virginia is still a State where we could have an upset. Reminds me of the Warner/Gillespie Race a bit. Trump wouldn't have gone to WV today if this weren't close.

Yeah this race is eerily quiet, I feel what would be described as an “upset”.

[J. J.]

RCP just moved WV to tossup. Yes, I am surprised.

Manchin still has a 5 point lead.  I'm still calling this for Manchin.

RCP didn't do an average in 2016.   

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

RCP just moved WV to tossup. Yes, I am surprised.

Manchin still has a 5 point lead.  I'm still calling this for Manchin.

RCP didn't do an average in 2016.   

It’s happening, Trump bump.

[Woody]

RCP just moved WV to tossup. Yes, I am surprised.

Manchin still has a 5 point lead.  I'm still calling this for Manchin.

RCP didn't do an average in 2016.   

OMG YES!!!! I have no doubt that Morrisey will win this. West Virginia is Trump country.