PEI Provincial election 2019 (user search)
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  PEI Provincial election 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: PEI Provincial election 2019  (Read 11709 times)
adma
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« on: April 23, 2019, 06:57:57 PM »

This is a weird election; almost like New Brunswick in reverse--not to mention an inverse of that historical PEI pattern where small polling margins can yield massive seat differences.

I sort of had an inkling the PCs might wind up on top, what w/that late poll showing them in the lead--and sure enough, they have a huge polling headway.  But it looks like a lot of that has been wasted on rural landslides; so what *should* be a solid PC victory vs split opposition has turned into a minority.  (And proof that even in PEI, the urban-rural left-right sorting trend has prevailed.)

Oh, and the PCs are up to 12, with the Premier falling behind in his own seat.



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adma
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2019, 07:53:45 PM »


I don't know if it's large wins in rural ridings or large wins for the incumbents.

True enough; if you were a Tory incumbent, there was little reason for voters to vote against you this time around (least of all stunting on behalf of the Greens).

Taking away the 8 seats where Tory incumbents were running, in the balance the Libs actually have a slight vote plurality, the Tories are in third and less than five points separates the three parties.
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adma
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2019, 08:18:37 PM »

Another thing: unless we see a "plurality bump", C'town-Hillsborough Park is *not* likely to go Tory.
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adma
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2019, 06:43:40 AM »

I would hesitate to call most of the Maritimes 'left wing' in the traditional sense of the term. The Maritimes are poor, but they aren't especially left either economically or socially. Movement conservatism never really caught on here, but neither has overt progressivism for the most part. Our politics are still kind of stuck in the 1970's that way.

Though I'm wondering about New Brunswick as a perhaps language-war-motivated semi-exception--while actual Tory premiers have tended to be moderate, they also depend on a hard-right/populist element that's sometimes inclined t/w alternate forces like Confederation of Regions and People's Alliance (and federally, Reform/Alliance); and w/People's Alliance presently a minority partner, Blaine Higgs is leading what's likely the most authentically right-leaning Maritime government in eons...
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adma
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Posts: 2,718
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2019, 07:35:22 AM »



In 2015, Gord McNeilly ran for the NDP and was leading until the advanced poll came in.  This time Gord McNeilly ran for the Liberals and was trailing until the advanced poll came in.

And that's the seat where the delightfully named former Lib MLA Bush Dumville ran as an independent.
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adma
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Posts: 2,718
« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2019, 05:16:49 PM »

Percentage of the vote that was cast early:
PC: 48%
Grn: 41%
Lib: 52%
NDP: 50%
Total: 47%

Have advance/early votes *always* been this massive in PEI?
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adma
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2019, 07:36:42 PM »

It's almost as if for many, being bound to voting on e-day is like being bound to land lines, or it's something you do only if you *really* have to.  (Used to be, advance voting had that same only-if-you-really-have-to status.)
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