PEI Provincial election 2019
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Author Topic: PEI Provincial election 2019  (Read 11710 times)
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #100 on: April 23, 2019, 08:56:15 PM »

lol at the notion of Charlottetown going to vote for a PC candidate to bolster a PC government just months after perhaps the single best Green candidate in the province was tragically killed with his son.

It's not going to happen.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #101 on: April 23, 2019, 09:00:54 PM »

Another thing: unless we see a "plurality bump", C'town-Hillsborough Park is *not* likely to go Tory.

It doesn't look like it; that area wasn't too good to the Tories tonight.

Keep in mind, though, that there have been some pretty remarkable swings in by-elections held soon after a new government takes office (not just in PEI, but NB and NS too). It doesn't always happen, though, and it would have to for the Tories to take it, so odds are very good indeed that the Greens will get a tenth member in a month or so.

Not to mention, at the risk of sounding morbid, that the Greens may get a certain sympathy vote due to the death of their candidate, who probably would have won tonight. A lot may depend on who they run in his place.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #102 on: April 23, 2019, 09:02:19 PM »

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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #103 on: April 23, 2019, 09:04:08 PM »


God what a tool.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #104 on: April 23, 2019, 09:11:40 PM »

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mileslunn
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« Reply #105 on: April 23, 2019, 09:20:07 PM »

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #106 on: April 23, 2019, 09:24:37 PM »

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #107 on: April 23, 2019, 09:30:30 PM »

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

Is the ideological moderation of the Tories just because of the Maritimes being more left-wing than the nation as a whole?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #108 on: April 23, 2019, 09:35:00 PM »

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

Is the ideological moderation of the Tories just because of the Maritimes being more left-wing than the nation as a whole?

That's certainly part of it, as the economies tend to be more dependent on government funds than elsewhere in the country.

Additionally, Liberal administrations tend to be more centrist/right-leaning than their federal or Ontario counterparts are too. There's just much less of an ideological shift when governments change around here in general, and more just of a change of people running things and in certain policy areas.

That also connects with what I said before about still-popular governments getting replaced after a few terms, which tends not to happen elsewhere.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #109 on: April 23, 2019, 09:37:06 PM »

Now I really hope PBB goes for the Premiership just to give the people who don't understand the Westminster system another data point proving them wrong.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #110 on: April 23, 2019, 09:46:37 PM »

Part of the reason there isn't the ideological gulf is Atlantic provinces are more monolithic than other provinces so when you have greater variance within a province in economy, incomes, industries etc., you tend to get greater polarization and also pushback by those who don't like the other side while when less differences you don't get the same polarization.  Besides there was a time when PCs in other provinces were like they are now in Atlantic Canada, see Bill Davis, Duff Roblin of Manitoba, Peter Lougheed while federally Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  Its more they have swung rightward in other provinces but haven't in Atlantic Canada.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #111 on: April 23, 2019, 09:51:21 PM »

With the counts now completed, we can go into some details:

The largest margin of victory was Jamie Fox (PC) in Borden - Kinkora, who won by 39.2%. This is in keeping with the government side getting the biggest constituency majority - even in close elections - since 1966.

Previous title-holders:
2015 - Sonny Gallant (Lib) wins Evangeline - Miscouche by 36.7%
2011 - Sonny Gallant (Lib) wins Evangeline - Miscouche by 58.5% (record for modern times)
2007 - Ron MacKinley (Lib) wins Cornwall - Meadowbank by 30.2%
2003 - Pat Binns (PC) wins Murray River - Gaspereaux by 42.5%
2000 - Mitch Murphy (PC) wins Kensington - Malpeque by 55.1% (Tory record)
1996 - Pat Mella (PC) wins Glen Stewart - Bellevue Cove by 42.2%
1993 - Edward Clark (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (C) by 47.5%
1989 - Edward Clark (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (C) by 54.3%
1986 - Stanley Bruce (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 25.1%
1982 - Jim Lee (PC) wins 5th Queens (A) by 29.1% (ironically, he went on to lose it in 1986)
1979 - George McMahon (PC) wins 5th Prince (A) by 42.8%
1978 - James Fay (Lib) wins 1st Kings (C) by 26.7%
1974 - Bob Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 34.7%
1970 - Alex Campbell (Lib) wins 5th Prince (C) by 35.9%
1966 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 25.5%
1962 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 28.3% (Liberal wins biggest margin, in spite of narrow PC victory provincewide)
1959 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 23.1% (see above)
1955 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 42.2%
1951 - Harvey Douglas (Lib) wins 2nd Kings (A) by 25.1%
1947 - Wilfred Arsenault (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (A) by 45.8%
1943 - Tom Kickham (Lib) wins 1st Kings (C) by 22.8%
1939 - Thane Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 21.8%
1935 - Thane Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 30.9% (the famous 30-seat Liberal sweep)
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #112 on: April 23, 2019, 09:59:24 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2019, 10:19:05 PM by DistingFlyer »

Looking more closely at the constituencies, I see - in reference to my earlier surprise at the big 'Yes' margin in Kensington - Malpeque - that there's a big difference in turnout between the referendum & the general election; far larger than in any other riding.

To wit: 2357 valid votes cast in the referendum (65.7% for 'Yes') while 3233 were cast in the general election (62.1% for PC Matthew MacKay).

Barring a counting error, has anyone any idea what happened in that district to account for that big turnout disparity?


EDIT: Looks like a counting error after all, unless one is prepared to believe that the advance poll registered 89% 'Yes' votes and a much smaller total vote than the general election. I'm going to guess that that count of 94 'No' in the advance poll is going to end up being 794 or 943 or something like that.

Should that be the case, and there are 700-900 more 'No' votes, then that makes the final figures 52%-48%, so I at least forecast one of the outcomes correctly!
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #113 on: April 23, 2019, 10:37:37 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2019, 05:27:49 PM by DistingFlyer »

Going into the weeds a little further, let's compare how well the parties did in their own ridings.

In the twelve Tory seats, the votes ran as follows:

PC - 49.3% (12 MLAs)
GP - 25.1%
Lib - 24.0%
NDP - 1.4%

'No' - 53.8% (8 )
'Yes' - 46.2% (4)

In the eight Green ridings, things look like this:

GP - 41.6% (8 MLAs)
Lib - 27.9%
PC - 27.4%
NDP - 3.0%

'Yes' - 54.4% (6)
'No' - 45.6% (2)


And in the six Grit constituencies, things ran thus:

Lib - 43.3% (6 MLAs)
GP - 26.5%
PC - 22.8%
NDP - 6.2%

'No' - 57.5% (3)
'Yes' - 42.5% (3)

That high 'No' is almost entirely due to those western seats going so heavily against. The three in central PEI all voted 'Yes.'


What to glean from these numbers? Bearing in mind that the ballots have barely cooled and this is hardly a long-considered analysis, I'd say that it shows that there were no set two-party fights in the province (that is to say, there were plenty of PC-Green, PC-Lib, Lib-Green contests, with some very strong third-place showings too), as evidenced by all three types of seat showing a fairly evenly-divided non-winners vote. The next election will be interesting, as third-placed parties will probably drop back in most ridings, to the benefit/cost to all three parties.

As expected, Green seats voted 'Yes' much more than the other parties' districts did, though the Liberal seats definitely showed a rural-urban split on the question (all parties' seats showed this, but the Liberals most of all - again, thanks to those far west seats).


EDIT (16 May): Have updated the above figures now that official tallies have been published by Elections PEI. I was correct about one thing: the advance poll result for the referendum was wrong for Kensington - Malpeque, flipping it to 'No' (making it 13-14), and the total 'No' vote to 52%.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #114 on: April 24, 2019, 04:33:59 AM »

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.
Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

I'm not denying that other countries are fine with it - Germany, NZ, etc. - but, for me, it violates the essential principle that all MPs/MLAs should be directly elected by the voters, rather than some being elected that way and some getting in by virtue of being highly-ranked on party lists. Parties already have too much power in this country, and PR would not improve that situation. That's my biggest (though not only) objection. Usually those who oppose it go on about minority government and the like, but that's never really bothered me.

You make a fair point, though - I have been a bit over-vehement about it here. The tension of a close result, I guess. Will refrain from excessive editorializing from here on.

There are other ways of doing proportional representation where voters do vote directly for candidates. STV easily comes to mind
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #115 on: April 24, 2019, 04:56:55 AM »

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.
Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

I'm not denying that other countries are fine with it - Germany, NZ, etc. - but, for me, it violates the essential principle that all MPs/MLAs should be directly elected by the voters, rather than some being elected that way and some getting in by virtue of being highly-ranked on party lists. Parties already have too much power in this country, and PR would not improve that situation. That's my biggest (though not only) objection. Usually those who oppose it go on about minority government and the like, but that's never really bothered me.

You make a fair point, though - I have been a bit over-vehement about it here. The tension of a close result, I guess. Will refrain from excessive editorializing from here on.

There are other ways of doing proportional representation where voters do vote directly for candidates. STV easily comes to mind

Yes, and I wouldn't necessarily mind that method, particularly in a geographically small province like PEI (or NS, where I live). It's not such a good idea for the big provinces or federally, where the multi-member ridings would be so vast in places (northern Ontario, the Territories, etc.) that it wouldn't really be practical to use.
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136or142
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« Reply #116 on: April 24, 2019, 05:40:09 AM »



In 2015, Gord McNeilly ran for the NDP and was leading until the advanced poll came in.  This time Gord McNeilly ran for the Liberals and was trailing until the advanced poll came in.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #117 on: April 24, 2019, 05:44:40 AM »

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

Is the ideological moderation of the Tories just because of the Maritimes being more left-wing than the nation as a whole?

Disting Flyer is correct, but I wanted to add one thing:

I would hesitate to call most of the Maritimes 'left wing' in the traditional sense of the term. The Maritimes are poor, but they aren't especially left either economically or socially. Movement conservatism never really caught on here, but neither has overt progressivism for the most part. Our politics are still kind of stuck in the 1970's that way.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #118 on: April 24, 2019, 05:45:39 AM »

Now I really hope PBB goes for the Premiership just to give the people who don't understand the Westminster system another data point proving them wrong.

I doubt he pulls it off. The Liberals would be playing with fire to become a junior coalition partner so I suspect they won't bite.
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adma
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« Reply #119 on: April 24, 2019, 06:43:40 AM »

I would hesitate to call most of the Maritimes 'left wing' in the traditional sense of the term. The Maritimes are poor, but they aren't especially left either economically or socially. Movement conservatism never really caught on here, but neither has overt progressivism for the most part. Our politics are still kind of stuck in the 1970's that way.

Though I'm wondering about New Brunswick as a perhaps language-war-motivated semi-exception--while actual Tory premiers have tended to be moderate, they also depend on a hard-right/populist element that's sometimes inclined t/w alternate forces like Confederation of Regions and People's Alliance (and federally, Reform/Alliance); and w/People's Alliance presently a minority partner, Blaine Higgs is leading what's likely the most authentically right-leaning Maritime government in eons...
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bigic
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« Reply #120 on: April 24, 2019, 06:59:22 AM »

Is a coalition government likely?
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adma
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« Reply #121 on: April 24, 2019, 07:35:22 AM »



In 2015, Gord McNeilly ran for the NDP and was leading until the advanced poll came in.  This time Gord McNeilly ran for the Liberals and was trailing until the advanced poll came in.

And that's the seat where the delightfully named former Lib MLA Bush Dumville ran as an independent.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #122 on: April 24, 2019, 08:47:28 AM »

Is a coalition government likely?

No. Coalitions almost never happen in Canada.
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beesley
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« Reply #123 on: April 24, 2019, 09:15:22 AM »

The PEI campaign was how I wish political campaigns could be run. Positive and collegial, and a genuine willingness to talk about so many different issues because they mattered to Islanders.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #124 on: April 24, 2019, 04:19:00 PM »

Early vote result:
PC: 37.29%
Lib: 32.77%
Grn: 26.29%
NDP: 3.20%

Day vote result:
PC: 35.83%
Grn: 34.49%
Lib: 26.61%
NDP: 2.81%


Percentage of the vote that was cast early:
PC: 48%
Grn: 41%
Lib: 52%
NDP: 50%
Total: 47%
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