Canadian Election 2019

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Don't all Mississauga ridings have the name Mississauga in them?  Why take one out?  Also, Greater Sudbury - Nickel Belt is confusing, but I guess you can't really name all the (formerly separate) surrounding municipalities. 

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Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

Not sure if Francophones was implied in minorities, also much of the non-French white population in Northern Ontario is "white ethnic" as opposed to WASP.

I think Northern Ontario is much more like rural Quebec - labour left, socialist/subsidize "us" left..  but not so much progressive left.  I think the remaining NDP MPs in the North (including Angus) will lose to Liberals, as much as I hate to say it, due to the NDP leader.  Kind of a "xenophobic left", you might call it.

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Abacus has a poll with 4,500 respondents.

Conservative 34
Liberal 33
NDP 17
Green 9
Bloc 4
People's 3

https://abacusdata.ca/a-tale-of-two-or-more-races/

Ontario Lib 37 CPC 33 NDP 19
Quebec Lib 35 CPC 23 BQ 18 NDP 12
BC CPC 31 Lib 29 NDP 22 Green 14   

On twitter there is data for Ontario subregions

Toronto: LPC 44 CPC 29 NDP 15
GTHA postal code L : LPC 37 CPC 35 NDP 19
East: LPC 41 CPC 24 NDP 21
SW: LPC 29, CPC 40 NDP 17
North (sample of 64): LPC 33 CPC 23 NDP 24 Green 17   

Why is Green only mentioned for the North?
Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

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Timmins is very labour left.  Does not really fit with Singh's progressive left image.

I don't think there is 100% certainty that the NDP will win any seat in Ontario.  Even Hamilton Centre doesn't have their incumbent advantage.  Oddly, the safest seat might be a seat the NDP doesn't currently hold, Brampton East.

The NDP got 30% during the 2015 election, and Hughes won by 5% and Angus by 8%.  If the NDP is down 10% (more more), i see both of these going down.

These, I believe, are the NDP's best chances:

Brampton - East
Hamilton Centre
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Toronto - Danforth
Parkdale - High Park
Davenport
Windsor-Tecumseh

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Mainstreet is out today and has the NDP at only 8.4% federally.

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I'm also curious about the placement of his hands.  Was this his girlfriend at the time?  A student?  Curious the media scrum didn't push harder when he simply replied "a friend".  Could mean anything.

Also, for Jagmeet's response, while I appreciate it, I don't think it works well politically.  He's kind of acting like the average joe is a leftist woke twitter/Tumbler SJW, and will feel a sense of guilt/empathy.  The problem is that people don't vote based on guilt.

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It really is something seeing SJW types defending Trudeau.  You now are left with a choice of two white straight men who have said/done homophobic/racist things, and you have a woman and a racialized man who have not, yet you are still supporting the white straight men. This is the argument they would be making if it was anyone but Trudeau, but for some reason it doesn't apply for him.  I thought initially that slogan from there Conservative's was just a dumb slogan, but I'm buying into it now.  It kind of is true.  Anyway, I'll probably vote Green now.  I think it's a free for all on the progressive side.

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How much power do the lesser parties have in a minority government or coalition situation?

Let's say, for example, that the Tories win the most seats, but that the NDP and Liberal caucuses together form a majority (we will assumed the Liberals won substantially more seats than the NDP). Could Singh's offer to support a Liberal-led coalition be contingent on the Liberals selecting a new leader?

Basically the Liberals will try to out-left the NDP in a minority Liberal situation (to keep the NDPs support), and so that if/when the NDP  does force an election (i.e. non-confidence motion, like a budget), the Liberals will be able to say , look the NDP voted against all this.  See the Ontario 2014 election.

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I also live in a close Lib/Con riding (one of the Etobicoke ridings), but don't think I'll be voting for the backbencher we currently have in government who doesn't do much for the riding.  Might vote Green for the first time.

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I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

Could it have to do with where you lived at the time of those elections compared to this one?  Or possibly getting older?  Or perhaps a subconscious racial bias? If you didn't vote Liberal in 2015 (but live in the same district now), it probably comes down to one of these things.  2015 was the "flock to the Liberals" election (much like provincially last year, we all flocked to Horwath), it's intellectually naive to make the jump now and try to justify it based on it being Scheer.  Harper was further right than Scheer is, by virtue of age and place in time. 

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Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

You didn't wait until election day? Don't you want to see your vote contribute to the maps?

What I'm finding from my social-media feed is that an *awful* lot of people are "selfie voting" in advance--sort of like a forthright declaration of a commitment to exercise their franchise, the earlier the better; and in a way that implicitly encourages others to follow suit.  And reports are that advance turnout's up 25% from last time, which I think is all about advance turnout, rather than turnout in general.  (And the phenomenon seems particularly common among the "fashionably left"; thus, some of last year's Ontario NDP landslides were even *more* landslidish in the advance polls.)

Which, of course, is hell to those of us who use the polling-map barometer--almost as if good old-fashioned voting on Election Day is becoming a Luddite anachronism a la land lines and print newspapers...

It's almost like you are trying to convince people that this is a bad thing?  Good on those people for voting early and sharing it.

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Voted Tory in the advance poll yesterday.

I toyed with voting People's or spoiling my ballot, but my ultimately decided that Scheer and my local candidate were better fits for my views.

You didn't wait until election day? Don't you want to see your vote contribute to the maps?

What I'm finding from my social-media feed is that an *awful* lot of people are "selfie voting" in advance--sort of like a forthright declaration of a commitment to exercise their franchise, the earlier the better; and in a way that implicitly encourages others to follow suit.  And reports are that advance turnout's up 25% from last time, which I think is all about advance turnout, rather than turnout in general.  (And the phenomenon seems particularly common among the "fashionably left"; thus, some of last year's Ontario NDP landslides were even *more* landslidish in the advance polls.)

Which, of course, is hell to those of us who use the polling-map barometer--almost as if good old-fashioned voting on Election Day is becoming a Luddite anachronism a la land lines and print newspapers...

It's almost like you are trying to convince people that this is a bad thing?  Good on those people for voting early and sharing it.

if you're on this site, there's an assumption that you like election maps, no? When you vote advance your vote doesn't go in to the poll by poll maps.

Agreed, but not people voting in advance polls' fault.  That's all.  The impression I got from the post was kind of like a "Who are they to think they should be voting in advance polls" nonsense.  I'm happy people are sharing they are voting, and encouraging others to do the same, even if it means fewer maps / less accurate maps.

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Anyone else find it interesting that the urban ridings in Ontario that tend to be further left of centre (progressive left) stayed Liberal (Parkdale-High Park, Ottawa Centre, Toronto Danforth) but the more rural/labour left regions (AMG, Timmins-James Bay, Hamilton) stayed NDP.  I would have predicted the opposite given Singh.  It's kind of bizarre to think Andrea Horwath was more popular in Toronto Centre, Beaches - East York, than Singh.