Canadian Election 2019

[Poirot]

Forum's new poll is different from the other polling firms. It gives a Conservative majority.

Conservatives 43%
Liberals 34%
NDP 11%
Greens 6%
Bloc 4%
Others 1%
 
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2908/federal-horserace-december-2018/

They don't seem to be polling Bernier's party. Considering the Conservative party has had trouble staying over the mid-30s, at 43% it would be a big shift.

[Poirot]

Léger's November poll is more in line with the average of polls.

Liberal 39%
Conservative 33%
NDP 14%
Green 5%
People 4%
Bloc 4%
Other 1%

Bernier's party demographics is more male and 18-34 of age.

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Federal%20Politics%20(final)%20-%20November%202018.pdf

There is a section rating satisfaction with actions taken by the government. Regional numbers give a geographic idea even if samples are small.

Creating jobs and economic development: 53% satisfied (highest in Atlantic, lowest in Alberta)
Deploying international policy to restore Canada's image: 51% (high Atlantic, low Alberta)
Legalizing use of recreational cannabis: 48% (high Atlantic, low Quebec)
Renegotiating NAFTA: 48% (high Atlantic Ontario, low Alberta Sask/Man Quebec)
Creating carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gases: 45% (high Quebec, low Alberta)
Incuring deficits to support Canadian economy: 37% (high Ontario Atlantic, low Alberta)
Purchasing Trans Mountain pipeline: 34% (high BC, low Quebec)

On abolishing the monarchy: 39% for, 32% against, 25% don't know (the For option is boosted by the 65% in Quebec)

On how many immigrants Canada welcomes: 9% too few, 40% enough, 45% too many, 5% don't know   

[Poirot]

Abacus federal poll

LPC 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 17%
Green 7%
Bloc 4%

This firm measured accessible voter pools. 53% would consider voting Liberal, 48% Conservative and 43% NDP, 36% Green and 18% for People's Party.

In BC the accessible voter pool is 54% Liberal, 48% Conservative, 47% NDP
Ontario 59% Liberal, 52% Conservative, 52% NDP
Quebec 50% Liberal, 37% NDP, 33% Conservative, 29% Bloc

They also show to which party voters would go if they changed thir mind.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://abacusdata.ca/canadas-political-mood-as-2018-comes-to-an-end/

[Poirot]

Anyone know where the new Bloc leader is going to run?

He has said in the Montérégie region but not the specific riding.
There is one Bloc MP in the region and he's running again so Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will not run in that one. PQ MNA Catherine Fournier was elected in the provincial riding of Marie-Victorin (part of Longueuil) and he could benefit from her help. Problem is that part of Longueuil is in the federal ridign Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne which includes not Bloc friendly part like Greenfield Park. Maybe it's more difficult to beat an incumbent Liberal MP so Blanchet is looking at the NDP held ridings (also targeted by Liberals).

It could be Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. Might wait to see if NDP MP is running and maybe who could be the Liberal candidate. Bloc finished third there but I think it's better to be parachuted in a more urban riding than rural (less territory to cover in campaign and usually less important to have a local figure). If Blanchet wants to avoid to face a Liberal MP, other possibilities are Salaberry-Suroit, Saint-Hyacinthe and Beloeil-Chambly. The first two have a regional city with many rural small towns so not ideal for someone from outside to land there in my opinion. 

[Poirot]

The Quebec Premier has started a list of demands to federal parties ahead of the federal election.

Have a single income tax return for provincial and federal government managed by Quebec
$300 million in compensation for costs incurred by asylum seekers crossing the border
More power over the selection of immigrants
Funding for public transit projects
Compensation for dairy farmers hurt by the Nafta renegotiation

The filing of a single tax return managed by Quebec was a motion supported by all parties in the National assembly last year. Conservatives and Bloc are for it. NDP adopted it as policy last year but seem to have changed their mind and no longer support it, the Liberals look like they are against.

Scheer has presented five policies to appeal to Quebec:
More autonomy over immigration
Single income tax return
Name a Quebec minister in charge of the federal economic development agency for Quebec
Incentive for retirees to work
Invest to stop wastewater flowing in rivers

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/21/scheer-presents-first-wave-of-tories-quebec-centric-policies/   

[Poirot]

Ipsos has a new poll

36-34-17
No detailed splits that I could fine. Similar to the Campaign Research poll, it shows a modest bump for the Tories

Detailed data on Ipsos website:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberal-Re-Election-Chances-in-Jeopardy

Poll was done Feb13-18 so before Butts' resignation..
Tories lead 38% to 32 in Ontario. Liberals still lead in BC with 37%, in Quebec with 38% and Atlantic with 50%.

42% approval of the performance of the government, drop of 9% since December. . 38% government deserve re-election.

[Poirot]

Leger did a poll February 15-19. The difference from the November poll, Liberals -5, Conservatives +3
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL.pdf

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 34%
NDP 12%
Greens 8%
Bloc 5%
PPC 4%

In line with Ipsos besides NDP numbers but regional differences from Ipsos, could be due to smaller regional sample. Leger has in Atlantic the Liberals only leading 42% to 36, in Ontario a tie with Liberals 38% to 37, in BC the Liberals only at 22% to Cons 36%% Cons, Manitobas/Sask a tie at 40% (?).

36% are satisfied with the government, a drop of 9% since November, Trudeau drops 7% in the best Prime Minister category but still leads at 26%, Scheer 21%, May 8%, Singh 6%, Bernier 4%.

67% of people are aware of the SNC case.
41% believe the PM did something wrong, 12% no wrong, 41% not sure.

57% want a change in government, 27% government be reelected, 15% don't know.

Maybe because Liberals had more choices than Conservatives but Harper leads the best Prime Minister of the last 50 years with 24%, Pierre Trudeau 22%, Chrétien 19%, Mulroney 13% (Mulroney is first in Quebec)

The second part of the survey is about most important issues, which leader does best on issues and level of immigration.
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Federal-Politics-February-2019-FINAL-day-2.pdf

[Poirot]

There was another poll showing the Liberal party losing a few points. It was a Mainstreet poll done in Quebec for Cogeco on February 17.

LPC 40%
CPC 21%
Bloc 17%
NDP 9%
Green 6.5%
PPC 4.6%

76% have heard of the SNC-Lavalin story.
In its decision about SNC's request should government consider economic impact of possible guilty verdict of the company at trial: Yes 52% No 23%

Should government intervene to avoid a trial for SNC and give them a big fine with a remediation agreement or let the judicial process continue its course: 41% intervene, 49% let the judicial process run

Do you believe Prime Minister Trudeau version of the event? Yes 25% No 55%

Are you satisfied with Trudeau's job on this file?
Very satisfied 14.5%
Satisfied 21.7%
Unsatisfied 36%
Very unsatisfied 14%

[Poirot]

Now that the Federal Election is the next big thing, there are a sizeable number of Liberals who haven't yet announced their re-election. There's a few like Yves Robillard and John McKay who are older and would be no surprise, but there are some which were unexpected. A few like Marwan Tabbara have a lot to worry about, but others like Ralph Goodale, Amarjeet Sohi, and Anju Dhillon have not announced yet.

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

[Poirot]

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

[Poirot]

For all the talk of Toronto being the most socioeconomically "inverted" city in North America (ie rich core), there's a lot more "downscale inner city housing" so close to the CBD compared to say Manhattan or Chicago.  TC actually has the highest poverty rate of any riding in Toronto, though there are of course ridings that are more thoroughly low income working class that have lower average incomes (i.e. York South-Weston, Humber, Scarborough-Guildwood and so on).

University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York are for the most part affluent with a few pockets of poverty.

There is a map with the median household income by federal electora district on 338canada (same guy who does qc125)
http://338canada.com/map-income

Toronto Centre is ranked 120 out of 121 Ontario ridings and 320 on 338 ridings in Canada.
In Toronto the other two lowest are York South Weston ranked 118 on 121 and Humber River Black Creek at 117.

The lowest median income in Ontario is Hamilton Centre, ranked 336 on 338 in Canada.
Windsor West is 119 of 121 in Ontario.

[Poirot]

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

[Poirot]

Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

[Poirot]

Steven Guilbeault will finally announce he is seeking the Liberal nomination in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. He defended the environment record of the government claining it's the government who has done the most for environment. He was against Trans Mountain. It will be interesting to see if voters who have the environment as a priority will follow the environment star.

The Green party is running Jamil Azzaoui, seems to be a singer.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal
Maybe they should have run the Green co-leader to face Guilbeault since it was expected he would run there. The Bloc will run an author who was the candidate in the Outremont by-election. Could indicate they don't think they can win, could not run someone with a higher public profile ?
A riding with young people so the more they split between NDP and Greens, it's easier for Libs to win and Guilbeault has the personal environment brand.   

[Poirot]

The Liberals will not be represented by an Italian in Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel. Form imam Hassan Guillet is the candidate.

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

[Poirot]

Maybe there is some confusion. 338canada.com is Philippe J. Fournier (alos does qc125)

Grenier did ThreeHundredEight.com but is now on CBC politics. He has a poll average and number of seats projection but I don't think he shows individual riding.

Since the election is coming maybe Tooclosetocall will reactivate soon.

[Poirot]

Quebec Proud is sending automated text messages about Quebec producing their own gas instead of "importing it from Trump's USA".

I received an automated phone message and it was about Trudreau and Blanchet supporting a carbon tax (or price on carbon don't remember the exact words).

[Poirot]

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

The two best options seem to be Sherbrooke and Pierrefonds-Dollard, but neither are perfect for him.

Hébert will seek the nomination in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert. Declared candidate in Sherbrooke wanted to go to nomination meeting and not wihtdraw. But in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert there is someone who declared in February. Eric Beaulieu has been on city council for 10 years and left the position of Vice President of the executive committee a few weeks ago. 

[Poirot]

Who will succeed Singh?

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

[Poirot]

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Last leadership race the big names took a pass. The prospect of replacing a two term government might look better so my guess is Scheer stays depends if high profile people are interested in the job and organizing behind the scenes. I don't think the Conservative would drop their leader without good replacement options interested like NDP did. 

[Poirot]

The July Mainstreet national poll has the NDP at 10% (11.5% in Ontario). If Mainstreet's riding polls are coherent with those numbers, I expect they will never be kind to the NDP.

[Poirot]

I listened to two of his radio interviews and wrote down numbers he gave. Don't know if numbers for all parties are published somehwre.

Longueuil-Saint-Hubert

1- Lib 40.4
2- BQ 28.6
3- Con ?
4. Green ?
5- NDP 6.4

Undecided 18% (party numbers seem to be excluding undecided)


Berthier-Maskinongé

1- Lib 30.5
2- Con 27.6
3- BQ 22.6
4- NPD 9.32

People party near 5%. 26% undecided

Jonquière

1- Lib 28.7
2- Con 24
3- NPD 21.5
4- BQ 21

No clue on the sample size or margin of error. He said it was fairly recent. I don't know if Conservatives have their own polling or could use Mainstreet. Luc Fortin is associated with Mainstreet and that firm loves reporting decimals.   

[Poirot]

Former cycling athlete Lyne Bessette is seeking the Lieral nomination in Brome-Missisquoi.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi

So doesn't look like Paradis just made the decision. She was recruited. It's managing the annoucement.

[Poirot]

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

And with that in mind, I still feel there might be a particularly sharp "Montreal vs ROQ" divide re what's left of NDP support; so even in open seats like Hochelaga and LSM, the Dippers could be poised to far outpoll Brosseau, or just generally hold their base better.  In the midst of urban cosmopolitanism, they're not as hung up about turbans.

Forum has a Quebec poll big enough to have regional segmentation. NDP is at 9% (it has Lib 30%, Conservative 28%, Bloc 15%, Green 10%). By region, NDP has 13% in Montreal, and 7% in Quebec City and Rest of Québec. It does better among non-francophones.

The correlation with the Québec Solidaire vote doesn't look strong enough for the NDP to have a chance to win the corresponding seats.  By provincial vote QS voters (sample is small with just over a hundred vote) go Lib 28%, NDP 24%, Green 22%, Conservative  12%, Bloc 7%.

Abacus had also a twitter post at the end of July of federal vote by 2018 Quebec vote. I imagine the sample was small but it was 35% Liberal, 27% NDP, 22% Conservative, 12% Green, 1% Bloc. 

[Poirot]

Mainstreet poll for Maxime's Bernier riding of Beauce

Conservative 33,5%
People's 33%
Liberal 19%
Bloc 6%
Green 4%
NDP 2%
Other 2,5%

Margin of error 3,87%, the question mentions parties and the leaders

66% are satisfied of the MP's work. Some of Bernier's ideas were polled.

67% agree gender parity in Cabinet is not a priority
56% agree mass immigration and extreme multiculturalism lead to social conflict and potential violence
42% agree to abolish supply management, 37% disagree
31% agree with idea of reopening the abortion debate
44% believe the federal government has nothing to do with climate change because environment is a shared jurisdiction and provinces have programs for it 

(don't know if there is a mistake in the last one. Seems like something Bernier would think but it is put in his two less popular ideas but it got 44%)

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-dans-une-course-a-deux-8f68d267facebd41757d310dcc1e22d1

I don't know if this will influence the decision to include Bernier in the debate. The party has the number of candidates criteria and needs the probability of winning criteria. It is subjective but this poll tells Bernier has a chance of being elected.