Canadian Election 2019

[Vosem]

If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces. It seems to me like hatred of Trudeau on the right might be strong enough to endanger ill will if Ford is blamed for Trudeau's survival, but that might just be my provincialism, since effects like this with Harper and leftist premiers weren't seen.

[Vosem]

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 

Yes, I know that provincial government popularity or lack thereof often affects federal results in Canada. (While the reverse seems to happen somewhat less often and not be as strong). My question was whether a federal election result had ever brought down a provincial premier? Like, let's say there are large Conservative gains in every province but large losses in Ontario, and as a result Trudeau is reelected with a bare minority government. Would there be pressure on Ford to step aside? And has anything like that happened before?

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Seems it make to make place for "known" country singer George Canyon.

Is MacKay totally gone from politics? On the question of who has the gravitas to succeed Scheer, where I'd previously suggested O'Toole, it seems like one of the figures on the Canadian right who is best-known, if very controversial, would be MacKay. (Other Harper-era figures who would definitely be strong candidates for the leadership and might have more "presence" than Scheer that come to mind would be Ambrose or James Moore).

[Vosem]

Polls have closed in Newfoundland. Let's go!

[Vosem]

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

Between that and a few other things, I'm starting to think that for the health of the Canadian polity (if not necessarily the party) it would be a good idea for the NDP to have a Westerner as leader for a while.

Similarly, the Tories probably should put a non-westerner in charge at some point

In fairness to them, they're trying; their leadership election weights every riding in Canada equally, which essentially means that the votes of people in places with few Conservatives, like Quebec or Newfoundland, are given much more weight than people in Alberta or Saskatchewan. The problem is that people who'll join a very westernized Conservative party like it to stay westernized.