Canadian Election 2019 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189230 times)
DL
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« on: March 12, 2019, 09:03:43 AM »

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.
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DL
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Canada


« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2019, 11:44:25 PM »

Anyone running for the federal Liberals in Laurier-Sté. Marie will quickly be tarred as “Monsieur Pipeline” and if it’s Guilbeault he’ll be seen as a sell out
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DL
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2019, 10:05:52 AM »

This poll also says that across the City of Vancouver federal Liberal support has collapsed to 25%, tied with the CPC while the NDP leads with 33% thestar.com/vancouver/2019

Another poll out yesterday shows a similar pattern in Winnipeg- big Liberal drop from 2015 and NDP gaining ground
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DL
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2019, 12:34:16 PM »

There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.

Probably not though if she retired that seat would be totally up for grabs. Sometimes people do stay past the best before date. Jim Bradly was supposed to be unbeatable for the Ontario Liberals after having been an MPP since 1977 and then last June he finally lost. I get the sense that Hedy Fry has a certain iconic image but that she has just been calling it in lately and isn’t doing much of anything and thinks she can coast with a “job for life”
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DL
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2019, 04:06:29 PM »

Vancouver Centre is the Vancouver equivalent of downtown Toronto seats that will go Liberal or NDP depending on  who has momentum...at one time the Tories were competitive there - it was Kim Campbell's riding after all - but now its purely a Liberal/NDP contest. If Hedy Fry retired it would quickly be a Liberal NDP tossup.
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2019, 10:37:24 PM »

Actually the next most winnable seat for the NDP in Vancouver would be Vancouver Granville if JWR didn’t run again
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DL
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Canada


« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2019, 03:59:27 PM »

Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2019, 08:54:23 PM »

I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa.

Not with a Liberal incumbent in place, unless Justin's set for a Wynne/Iggy-level collapse.

Last election Niagara Centre was close to an even three way split. The federal Liberals won’t lose by as much as the Wynne Liberals did provincially but they will drop at least ten points from their 2015 landslide which would put them firmly in third place in a rising line Niagara Centre
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DL
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 10:18:16 PM »

It’s also quite conceivable that the NDP could win back Halifax from the Liberals
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DL
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Canada


« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2019, 08:43:15 AM »

One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate
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DL
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2019, 10:35:00 AM »

One thing has not been discussed very at all is what happens with the Senate if Scheer forms a government. Right now about three-quarters of the Senate is composed of either Liberals or liberals (in other words the non-partisans Trudeau has appointed). These non-partisans in the Senate will not feel bound by any convention to hold their nose and pass government legislation and as a result a Scheer government would quickly face a constitutional crisis as a result of not being able to pass much of its legislation thorugh the Senate

As opposed to the Liberal majority Senate Harper faced initially?

In 2006 it actually did cause problems for Harper to face a Liberal majority in the senate, BUT there was a huge difference. Those Liberal senators formed a caucus and they were all part of the old regime where there was a tacit acknowledgement that the appointed Senate should not reject bills passed by the elected Senate. We are in uncharted waters now with a majority of the senate now sitting as Independents who all think that the fact they are senators chosen for their personal qualities and not for having been party bagmen in the past and that this makes them God's gift to the world and they see themselves as having a legitimacy that the old partisan senators did not have. No one can tell them what to do and I suspect they will not hesitate to vote down Tory measures they don't like. Scheer may have to "pack" the senate like Mulroney did in 1988 
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DL
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Canada


« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2019, 10:59:24 AM »


There's another plausible (and somewhat likely in my opinion) Tory minority scenario:

Liberal+NDP have a majority. Scheer still forms a government, not because Trudeau decided to go quietly but because either:

a) Trudeau and Singh cannot come to a working agreement.

b) The NDP decides that it isn't in their best interest to prop up a scandal ridden Trudeau government

In which case we probably get new elections within 18 months.

As I've said before, I think Atlas and other political social media groups overstate the likelihood of the Liberals and NDP working together to overcome a Tory plurality. I get the impression that they conflate the interests of the Liberals and NDP with the interests of progressive voters active on social media.

In Canada these sort of arrangements have typically been to topple an unpopular incumbent. That has very different optics than the NDP making an agreement with a Prime Minister they just spent the last six months (rightly) slamming as corrupt and arrogant.

A Liberal-NDP agreement certainly isn't impossible or even unlikely, but to simply dismiss the historic norm for minority election results is veering into the sort of "here's how Bernie can still win" type of error we political junkies are prone to.


I have to disagree.

a) Trudeau and Singh don't need to come to any agreement. Trudeau is the incumbent and he has a right to present a Throne speech and try to govern. As an NDP member myself, i know that party pretty well. There is zero chance that the NDP would vote with the Tories to topple Trudeau at that stage knowing that it would mean Scheer forming government and then having to pass Throne speech himself - and if that failed we would face a second election the same year and there would be absolutely no upside for the NDP in triggering that. Does anyone seriously think the NDP would vote against a Liberal Throne speech that would likely be heavily larded with items relating to pharmacare and child care and the environment so that two weeks later they could vote in favour of a Tory Throne speech that would be full of draconian cuts to social spending, anti-labour stuff, lots of climate change denial and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy etc...

There may be lots of "narcissism of small difference" issues that separate the Liberals and NDP - but seriously i can think of lots of policy concession that the Liberals would be only too happy to make to stay in power. In contrast I cannot think of ANY policy whatsoever where the Tories and NDP have any common ground (can you?). There would literally be nothing to discuss. On top of that while NDP MPs and insiders may see the Liberals as their competition for votes, they also tend to see the Reformatories under Scheer as an existential threat to Canada and as a "mini-Trump"

b) while the SNC Lavalin affair is a "thing" its a stretch to call this a "scandal ridden" government. A true scandal ridden government was the Liberal government of the early 00s what with the sponsorship scandal. As you may recall, the NDP made a deal with Paul Martin that was widely seen as a good deal from an NDP perspective and the NDP gained seats in the subsequent election
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DL
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Canada


« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2019, 12:17:03 PM »

There's no chance of the Senate being made elected right?  My understanding is that the Tories and Liberals are opposed to that wholeheartedly (Tories more opposed than Liberals however).

The Tories have supported an elected Senate in the past but the fact is it would require a constitutional amendment requiring unanimous consent of the provinces so it can never happen
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2019, 01:14:13 PM »


Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

Well I suppose that if we had a scenario where the Tories actually had more seats than the Liberals, the NDP could abstain on a Tory Throne speech and it would pass. But I suspect that the Liberals would do absolutely anything possible to avoid relinquishing power in the first place. They would either dare the NDP to defeat them and bring Scheer to power or they would agree to a slew of NDP demands - or some combination of the two.

There are things Trudeau and Singh could discuss and negotiate. There is literally nothing for Singh to talk about with Scheer
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DL
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Canada


« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2019, 02:40:04 PM »


You mean that Trudeau and Singh would form a coalition government?

No, Canada doesn't do coalitions.

A. No I don't think there is any chance of an actual coalition, but there could be horse trading in exchange for a CASA (Confidence and Supply Agreement).
B. We actually have had coalitions in Canada...the Union government during WW1 and Liberal/Conservative coalitions in the 50s in manitoba... and 1999-2003 there was an NDP/Liberal coalition in Saskatchewan and we came very close to having one federally in 2008. The time for it will come...
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2019, 03:38:56 PM »

I can guarantee you that if the last Ontario election had yielded 60 PCs under Doug Ford and say 38 Liberals under Wynne and 30 NDP under Horwath - as much as the NDP would rather have preferred to eat crushed glass than prop up such a discredited Kathleen Wynne - there is no way that Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath would have allowed Doug Ford to take power knowing how much damage he would do.
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DL
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2019, 08:55:29 AM »

Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.
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DL
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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2019, 11:47:07 AM »

What makes Toronto Centre "tough" is the fact that its historically a very Liberal area...the fact that Bill Morneau is the MP is really not much of a factor. I don't get the sense that he is much of a "constituency man" or that he has any personal following beyond the votes of people who would vote for any generic Liberal...and he is not a particularly popular Finance minister nor is he much of a retail politician
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2019, 11:48:02 PM »

Demographically Toronto Centre should be the best NDP seat of the three downtown ridings. It doesn’t have Rosedale anymore. It doesn’t have all that many high end condos like Spadina Fort York. It has a lot of downscale inner city housing and it votes very left municipally. Now that it has an NDP MPP provincially maybe at some point the dam will break federally
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2019, 10:09:49 AM »

While obviously benefiting from the Liberal collapse and NDP rise, Suze Morrison is pretty impressive.  She was the least known of the candidates going into the TC NDP nomination but signed up a lot of people, beating out a candidate who got all these big endorsements (Olivia Chow, Mike Layton, Peter Tabuns etc.) and ran the "inevitable frontrunner" strategy but just didn't get the votes of people in the riding.

Suze Morrison has turned out to be a terrific MPP and she worked very hard to win that nomination at a time when the conventional wisdom was that whoever the NDP nominated would be a sacrificial lamb...but it should be noted that she only beat Kevin Beaulieu (the presumed frontrunner) by ONE vote after they re-ran the vote because it was initially a tie! 
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2019, 07:10:22 AM »

Actually I think that while it’s a long shot the NDP may have more of a chance in Humber Valley Black Creek than in some of the downtown ridings. It’s very poor, went NDP provincially, no name Liberal incumbent and a potential strong NDP candidate
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DL
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2019, 12:11:04 PM »

Deanna Sgro is not very formidable. Not only did she lose provincially but she lost municipally too.
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2019, 12:03:54 AM »

Latest poll from Campaign Research says it’s Tories 35%, Liberals 31%, ndp 17% and Greens 10%...but with the Liberals well ahead in Quebec and marginally ahead in Ontario i think they would still get the largest number of seats

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TbCOi439siAc2Hxab6MISQf4ePvgeCSu/view
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2019, 09:10:39 PM »


It could happen, but Ethan Cox is NOT a reliable source at all...There is zero chance of Jane Philpott winning in Markham-Stouffville unless she joined the Conservatives (not happening)>
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DL
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Posts: 3,405
Canada


« Reply #24 on: May 26, 2019, 11:17:50 PM »


This is crushing news for Elizabeth May. They may as well have whacked her with a sledgehammer
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