Canadian Election 2019

[mileslunn]

In under a year's time Canadians will go to the polls.  My thoughts on the parties and regions are as follows, but off course things as usual will likely to change between now an election day.

Liberals

Justin Trudeau has decent approval ratings with all showing him over 40% and most over 50% so while he has lots of haters, especially amongst the Conservative base, overall I think he is heavily favoured to be re-elected next year.  The real question is will it be another majority or be reduced to a minority.  At the moment it looks like a majority, but polls are volatile enough I wouldn't be shocked if it was a minority.

Conservatives

They've done a good job at holding on their base of 30% and some polls show them above the 35% mark, but while they have a good chance of improving on their 99 seats from 2015, I think winning is a very long shot.  Not impossible but not likely.  Also even if they win a plurality, NDP and Liberals will probably gang up to keep them out so I think for Scheer the real question is does he increase the seat count enough to stay on as leader and try for PM the next time or does he fail to make headway and perhaps even lose seats thus being forced to resign as leader.  Half the population has no opinion of him so he will probably get the core 30% that always vote Tory, but whether he can appeal beyond that remains to be seen.

NDP

Generally have gotten a lot of negative press and Singh's approval rating is fairly low.  Also with Trudeau taking a fairly left of centre stance, I think he is somewhat squeezed out.  Still he might perform better than expected on the campaign trail.  I think the biggest determinant in how well he does is how big a threat the Tories are.  If the Liberals have a healthy lead, I think the party will do alright as progressives will feel they can safely vote NDP without risking a Tory government, but if polls are tight, probably not so much as a lot of progressives will then strategically vote Liberal.

Bloc Quebecois

Never want to totally count them out, but they seem to be on life support and I suspect will probably not be much of a factor.

Green Party

They are polling well now, but I find since in most ridings they are a throw away vote usually things fall a bit as more people vote strategically.  That being said I could see them picking up a few more seats on the Southern part of Vancouver Island where they are quite strong.

People's Party

I doubt it will go very far.  It might appeal to some of the more right wing elements who think Scheer is insufficiently conservative, but libertarianism has never really had that broad a support and also with poor vetting will probably attract a lot of nutbars.  Also most Tories despise Trudeau with a passion, so I think vote splits on the right are unlikely.  If Tories lose, as I think they will, it will be because they did attract enough middle of the road voters, not due to splits on the right.

Atlantic Canada

I suspect the Liberals will once again dominate this region, although I think the Tories will win back a few of their traditional strongholds so not a Liberal sweep like last time, but still Liberals winning the vast majority.  Almost certainly over 20 seats and highly likely over 25 seats.  NDP will come more down to local candidates so if they win any seats it will be due to strong local candidates.

Quebec

At the moment Liberals are in good shape to not only hold but gain seats, however support is quite soft so as Quebec is always unpredictable no guarantee the gains will materialize.  Conservatives will probably hold onto to the majority of seats they have now, but unless Scheer really impresses Quebecers I think at best they might pick up a seat or two and could just as easily lose a few seats too.  For the Tories their support is very concentrated in the Quebec city region, so whether they get 15% or 30% doesn't make a lot of difference seat wise.  Only changes if they fall below 15% in which they lose many of their seats or go above 30% in which they start flipping many other seats.  NDP will lose most of their seats and I think the east end of Montreal is really the only area that is naturally a good fit for them.  It's possible a few MPs might hold on due to personal popularity.  Bloc Quebecois as mentioned above while People's Party will go nowhere, in fact I predict Bernier loses his riding.  Just a question of does he split the vote enough to allow the Liberals to win it or do the Tories hold on.

Ontario

With Wynne gone and Ford now premier who is quite polarizing, I would say the Liberals are favoured to win the majority of seats here.  Holding onto all 80 will be a stretch but I think the odds favour them winning over 60 seats.  40 seats is their absolute worse but I only see that happening if the economy tanks or a scandal emerges.  Tories should hold most of their seats and maybe pick up a few close ones, but doubt they will beat the Liberals.  Mind you they got 35% and I could see them dropping as low as 30% thus costing them seats at the same time a slight uptick and better vote splits could net them 50 maybe even 60 seats.  In Ontario you can flip a lot of seats with a relatively small vote swing.  NDP will win some seats, but how well they do as mentioned above will largely depend on the Tory threat, otherwise gain if Tories are not a threat, stay where they are if they are.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba

Tories will probably win the majority of seats here and will almost certainly come in first in Saskatchewan although Manitoba could go either way.  Regina, Saskatoon, and suburban Winnipeg will be the battlegrounds while I expect them to win big in all rural seats save the two Northern ones.  Liberals should do well in Winnipeg, but outside of there, only really three seats I think they have a shot at; Ralph Goodale's they will hold if he runs again while the two Northern are possibilities.  NDP might gain back a few in Winnipeg and has some potential in Regina and Saskatoon, but my guess is they win seats in both provinces but finish behind the Tories in both and behind the Liberals in Manitoba.

Alberta

The Tories will obviously win the vast majority of seats here, but I doubt it will be a clean sweep.  Liberals will be in a tough fight to hold the four seats they have.  For them turnout amongst millennials will be a big factor as most boomers hate the Liberals and Trudeau, but millennials in Alberta are more inclined to support them and Alberta has the youngest population.  A strong millennial turnout and they should hold and possibly pick up a few more urban seats, while poor millennial turnout and lose all four.  With Linda Duncan not running again, I could see the NDP getting anywhere from 0 to 2 seats.  Provincial election could have an impact since if NDP does better than expected you might see many progressives coalesce around them whereas if they lose badly in the spring most will probably coalesce around the Liberals.  Either way don't see them winning any seats outside Edmonton.

British Columbia

Probably a three way race with each having their strength.  Liberals are probably favoured overall, but it will be a mixed bag.  They should do well in the Lower Mainland, but not so much in other parts of the province.  Tories are likely to rebound a bit from their low of 30% but how they do seat wise will depend heavily on vote splits.  Strong vote splits and they could more than double their seat count, but weak vote splits and will likely struggle to hold what they have.  NDP should do okay, but if provincial government's approval rating tanks that could cost them seats, but hasn't happened yet.  My guess is Interior largely Conservative, Lower Mainland largely Liberal with a few NDP and Conservative seats, while Vancouver Island largely NDP.  Greens as mentioned should be competitive south of Nanaimo on Vancouver Island, but whether they can gain any new seats or not remains to be seen.

Territories

Liberals likely take all three, but either the Tories or NDP could pick up seats here if they have a strong candidate as in the North local candidate as opposed to party tends to matter more.

[mileslunn]

Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.

[mileslunn]

Hopefully the Tories win and win in a landslide,


Trudeau has been one of the worst pm's ever

If the Tories win it won't be a landslide.  One term PMs are quite rare so I think the Tories beating the Liberals in seat count is a steep, but not impossible hill to climb.  Actually winning a majority will require a lot of things falling into place as at the moment they are a long ways away from it.  Now true, if every voter who in the last provincial elections voted for centre-right parties (BC Liberals in 2017, WRP + PC in AB in 2015, Saskatchewan Party in 2016, Manitoba PCs in 2016, Ontario PCs in 2018, CAQ in 2018, NB PCs + People's Alliance in 2018, PEI PC's in 2015, NS PC's in 2017, and NL PC's in 2015) also voted Tory federally, that would be sufficient, but I am skeptical of them doing as well as their provincial counterparts in pretty much every province save Alberta as in all other provinces each one had certain things going for them the federal party lacks.

Yah I know they wont win in a landslide, all Im saying is they deserve to.


I dont think winning a majority is implausible but it depends on what type of campaign they run. If they run a milquetoast campaign and run away from Harper they will lose. They need to run an aggressive campaign

I think their challenges are regional.  Harper is still hated in Atlantic Canada so they can win there but they have to return to their Red Tory roots and that will anger a lot of their base.  Quebec is always a wild card and usually it either embraces them (like 1958, 1984, or 1988) or soundly rejects like in most elections, no in between and usually we don't get any clues until about two weeks before the election.  I think had Horwath won last June or Wynne somehow got back in, the Tories would be in great shape to make gains in Ontario, but since Ford is premier who is very polarizing and divisive, that will probably hurt them there.  Ontario has a long history of voting opposites federally and provincially so with the PCs now in control at Queen's Park, that hurts the chances for the Tories federally.  They already hold the majority of ridings in the Prairies and not enough ones they don't hold to make a big difference.  BC seems to have swung leftward of recent so that could change if the provincial NDP tanks, but at the moment things don't look good for them, at least not in the coastal areas (I live here so I would know) which is the majority of the province.

To be fair, its not all bad for the right in Canada.  Unlike in 2015, we now have four provinces with 2/3 of the population with centre-right governments and that will likely grow to six as in New Brunswick Liberals likely to be defeated on the throne speech this Friday thus making room for the PCs and Alberta will likely swing rightward next May provincially.  So in all probability you will have over 80% of Canadians living in provinces with centre-right provincial governments so having a centre-left federally sort of balances things out.

[mileslunn]

Lets stay on topic instead of personal opinions here.  If you think the Khadr cheque will have an impact then mention it and why, but leave your personal politics out.  If you want to discuss that, start in page in the personal politics section.  I created this just as created one for PEI and Newfoundland as following US Election Atlas policies, it says don't create one more than a year out so I create a topic usually just under a year before the election as now with fixed dates much of what happens in terms of events will be about each party positioning themselves to win or make gains as opposed to what is best policy.  Otherwise the focus is going to be for all three parties on winning and thus it will all be about what groups they think they can pick up and avoiding any controversial statements or policies that could sink their chances.

[mileslunn]

Memo to Old School Republican: get out of this thread, you're derailing it.

Oh, and back to the topic at hand: somehow, I *can* see Maxime Bernier winning his own seat, even if his party dumpster-fires elsewhere.  In effect, he might as well be "independent", much like his father in 1993...

He is quite popular in his riding, but his stance on supply management might hurt him.  I believe his riding has more dairy farmers than any other riding in Canada so probably not the best riding to be in when going after one of the largest contributors to the local economy.  If he were a suburban riding or rural riding with few Dairy farmers (not many in the Prairies) it might work in his favour.  Both Legault and Ford despite being conservatives are strong supporters of supply management and for good reasons.  Their strongest showings were in rural ridings where dairy farming is an important part of the economy.

[mileslunn]

Nanos has some recent polls out showing Liberals with an almost 12 point lead and the Tories at 27.5%, the lowest they've been since May 2017.  Whether this is a trend or blip, hard to say but would be interested to see other pollsters weigh in.  Mainstreet research should be out soon and Quito Maggi tweeted PPC doing better than other pollsters.  If true, my guess is the carbon tax stance is hurting the Tories.  Most people want action on climate change, but don't want it to cost too much.  If the carbon tax didn't involve rebates, it might be a winning issue for the Tories, but the inclusion of rebates turns the tables.  MQO as mentioned in PEI and Newfoundland headings has polls for the provinces.  For Nova Scotia, looks good for the Liberals, but the Tories have decent numbers, their problem is the NDP is very weak so lack of splits, but if they can hold their numbers and NDP gets an uptick could regain some of the ridings they lost in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia.  In New Brunswick, Tories have a slight lead over Liberals so likely the results would be similar to the last provincial election.  While things can change, I would be shocked if the Liberals sweep New Brunswick again.  I suspect the Tories will win seats in New Brunswick, maybe Nova Scotia, but not likely in PEI or Newfoundland.  For the NDP, any win in Atlantic Canada will probably come from having a popular candidate in a riding where there is no chance of vote splits.  It looks like much like PEI, Greens due to probably provincial strength are getting a strong bounce in New Brunswick.

Nova Scotia

Liberal 50%
Conservative 34%
NDP 10%
Green6%


New Brunswick

Conservative 38%
Liberal 35%
Green 15%
NDP8%

With those numbers, I suspect Tories would easily take Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, and Fundy-Royal.  Saint John-Rothesay, Fredericton, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Central Nova, and Cumberland-Colchester would likely be close battles.  West Nova seems to have swung pretty heavily Liberal, so skeptical about a Tory pick up here.  South Shore-St. Margaret's only went Tory due to strong Liberal/NDP splits which are lacking at the moment.  Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche have large Francophone communities so I could be wrong, but I am thinking the provincial government and unpopularity of Higgs and PANB amongst Francophones (fairly popular amongst Anglophones, but not Francophones) would probably hurt their chances never mind in 2015 it appears the Anglophone conservative vote dropped a lot, but it didn't implode like it did in Francophone areas.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet research is out nationally.  Liberals similar numbers to Nanos, but Tories doing somewhat better although even though the topline numbers may suggest a competitive political landscape, the regional numbers paint a much bleaker picture for the Tories.  BC is close, Tories have a big lead in the Prairie provinces and that is the main reason the party appears competitive but running up the margins there may push vote total up, but not seat total.  Ontario and Quebec, Liberals both have large leads and are in great position to hold the seats they have now and in Quebec even gain, while the Tories in both cases are in good shape to hold what they have now, but to win or even come close they need strong gains in at least one if not both provinces and that is not the case at the moment in either.  In Atlantic Canada, Liberals still maintain a large lead although Tories are up enough from 2015 to probably win a few seats thus avoiding a complete shutout, but Liberals would still win the lion's share.  NDP is very weak and their low support here (although for whatever reason Mainstreet always seems to underestimate them compared to others) is probably one of the biggest things Trudeau has going for him provided this holds.  The people's Party is at 3.8% so higher than most other polls, but still a very small number but enough to cost the Tories many close seats.  Nonetheless, while combining CPC + PPC would put the two in a statistical tie, Liberals would still win a majority even if all PPC votes went to the CPC due to vote inefficiency of CPC.

Liberal 39.3%
Conservative 34.6%
NDP 10.8%
Green 6.8%
PPC 3.8%
BQ 3.4%

[mileslunn]

Frankly, with a NDP number that low, I'd worry that they're poised to be "Audreyed" a la 1993

Mainstreet always puts them on the low side, so I think they will still get over 12 seats.  They will probably lose most in Quebec, but the east side of Montreal voted heavily QS so think they have a chance there.  In Ontario they should win some while in Manitoba as the unpopular NDP government, which hurt them in 2015 is gone, they should hold or maybe gain.  In BC have a strong base and pockets where they always do well and unlike in 1993, the BC NDP government has recently decent approval ratings so they won't be dragged down by them like they were in 1974, 1993, 1997, and 2000 (caveat that assumes the BC NDP government's approval stays where it is and doesn't tank).  In Saskatchewan, they are the main alternative to the Tories not the Liberals and with a strong urban/rural divide and an end of the gerrymandered rural/urban split ridings, they should win a few urban Saskatchewan ones.  Never mind Scott Moe while popular, not as popular as Brad Wall was in 2015 and his strong numbers are more due to sky high support in rural Saskatchewan, in the two cities he is not so popular.

Definitely possible, but I think this happening is about as likely as the Liberals dropping below 100 seats or Tories falling below 70 seats.  I could see NDP falling below 20 seats, but think below 12 is not very likely.

[mileslunn]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Unless oil rebounds strongly, they will be lucky to hold the two seats they hold.  While not Trudeau's fault for lack of pipeline being built or low oil prices, being government of the day doesn't help.  That being said Calgary-Confederation is probably the lowest hanging fruit.

In terms of Tories attacks, agreed as the base hates Trudeau with a passion but amongst swing voters they don't love Trudeau but don't either hate him with a passion.

[mileslunn]

About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?

I would say with current regional breakdowns Liberals need a 3 to 4 point lead so actually only a few points more to retain their majority.  Tories need about a 10 point lead so still a long ways from a majority.  In fact I figure the Tories need a 2 point lead in the polls just to beat the Liberals in seats.  The reason for this is voter efficiency.  Tories have the same problem Hillary Clinton had, win big in areas they are already strong in so lots of wasted votes (that would be Alberta and Saskatchewan) while Liberals win in a lot more areas but where they win it tends to be by much narrower margins.  The Liberals will likely get below 20% and 10% in far more ridings than the Tories so fewer wasted in votes in no hope areas, while unlike 2015, I suspect there will be few Liberal ridings over 60% and few or any of 70% and probably none over 80% while with the anger at the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan, I think you will see a lot of over 60%, over 70% and even a few over 80% for the Tories.  Rural Alberta is the Tories' strongest area and there is no place where the Liberals are likely to win as big. 

[mileslunn]

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.

Let's remember that the Libs were disadvantaged in 1979 because *they* had the overly-plumped-vote circumstance--Quebec was for them then what Alberta/Prairies is for CPC presently.

A lot, too, might depend on whether Bernier's PPC has any discernable ballot-box traction, whether as winner or as spoiler...

Ironically it is Alberta not Quebec where Bernier is most popular so if he does gain any traction, probably will be mostly in Conservative strongholds thus reducing their margins but not costing them the seats so more vote efficient.  That being said unless he somehow gets into the debates, I suspect his party will go nowhere.

[mileslunn]

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

[mileslunn]

Since a few natives got arrested last night for protesting, I’m curious to see how they vote. Is it split between NDP and the Liberals? Will the recent pipeline controversy lead to a changing voting pattern?

It depends on which band/tribe but usually I find they tend to vote massively behind one, rarely split within any band/tribe but is split overall as one band might go massively NDP another massively Liberal.  Add to the fact turnout amongst First Nations tends to be very low in fact many deliberately refuse to vote as they feel it legitimizes being colonized.

[mileslunn]

Scott Brison is not running for re-election.  Since this was a Tory stronghold before he crossed the floor, this would normally make this a target for the Tories, but with how badly they were damaged in 2015, I suspect the Liberals should be able to hold this even if not quite the same blowout as in 2015.

[mileslunn]

Three former Liberal candidates are considering running for Tory nominations.  This will be interesting as no doubt the Tories can use this as proof the Liberals have abandoned the centre and swung too far to the left.  Might not amount to much, but probably something the Liberals would rather not have or at least they would probably like to get some former Tories to run under their banner in exchange to offset this.

David Bertschi (Liberal candidate 2011 in Ottawa-Orleans) running for Conservative nomination for Orleans.  He endorsed Erin O'Toole back in 2017 as CPC leader so already leaning that way.

Andrew Kania (Liberal MP Brampton West 2008-2011) endorses the Tories and is considering running for them in Brampton South.

Wendy Yuan (Liberal candidate Vancouver-Kingsway 2008 and 2011) running for Tory nomination in Steveston-Richmond East (interestingly enough Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido was first elected in 2000 as a Canadian Alliance MP and for Reform Party in both 1993 and a 1996 by-election so talk about swapping places).

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out today and now the first non-Nanos poll this year.  Liberals big lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, 6 points ahead in Ontario, while Tories slightly ahead in BC and massive lead in the Prairies.

Liberal 37.2%
Conservative 35.1%
NDP 11.5%
Green 7.2%
BQ 3.5%
PPC 4.2%


Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

[mileslunn]

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

[mileslunn]

MQO research is doing federal polls for each Atlantic province and so far for PEI has Liberals well in front at 52%, Tories in second at 30% while Greens at 10% and NDP at 7%.  That would seem to imply a Liberal sweep while the Tories are doing a lot better than 2015, still got a ways to go before winning seats there, but such shifts would be enough to win seats in New Brunswick.  I suspect Tories will win a few seats in New Brunswick, maybe Nova Scotia depending on how things go, but I don't expect them to win any seats in either PEI or Newfoundland & Labrador.

[mileslunn]

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

I think there was a fair number of populist Bernie-Trump voters that many Dems refuse to acknowledge. This group quite possibly swung the election and tipped the Rust Belt. I don't see Bernier gaining the same traction (minor party), but he could gain support among libertarian leaning folks, myself included.

I think amongst libertarian leaning folks, it will come down to how close things are in the polls.  If it is clear the Liberals are going to be re-elected anyways, then many might decide to take a chance on him hoping a strong showing by the PPC would influence the Tories in policy and leader next time around.  While if close in the polls like now, I suspect most won't want to risk a vote split as most libertarians I know hate Trudeau with a passion and getting rid of him is more important than getting their ideal leader.

[mileslunn]

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.

[mileslunn]

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.

He lost his own riding during the leadership ballot, if I recall correctly.

EDIT: Correction/Clarification - I've checked the Wikipedia maps, he led on the first ballot in his riding, however Scheer won a majority of his riding on the final ballot.

Ironically I believe his riding has the greatest number of dairy farmers of any riding in Canada and many of them signed up specifically to stop him from becoming leader as he was the only one promising to dismantle supply management which may sell well in Alberta, but does not in rural Quebec.  Legault and Ford maybe small c conservatives but both are strong defenders of supply management as they know it would hurt a lot of their rural support.

[mileslunn]

Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

Sydney-Victoria is quite safe so don't think the Liberals will have any trouble holding it.  Ironically provincially it went quite heavily PC, but the PCs provincially are Red Tories so lots of crossover votes.  West Nova and Kings-Hants I think will stay Liberal too although probably tighter than 2015, but I think it will take a few elections for the Tories to recover from the 2015 disaster.  Cumberland-Colchester I could see flipping, in fact of the Nova Scotia ridings it is the only one I think the Tories have a reasonably decent shot at.  Although wouldn't be surprised if it stays Liberal as I doubt the Tories will get over 50% there and with NDP being so weak, 40% might not be enough.

[mileslunn]

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

[mileslunn]

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

[mileslunn]

Maybe because Liberals had more choices than Conservatives but Harper leads the best Prime Minister of the last 50 years with 24%, Pierre Trudeau 22%, Chrétien 19%, Mulroney 13% (Mulroney is first in Quebec)

Not surprised Harper came in first, but bet on worst prime-minister would be up there too.  Quite polarizing as for those on the right, he is the only real right wing prime-minister we've ever had (Mulroney and Clark were fairly centrist so more popular amongst swing voters, but probably less so with base) so I would expect pretty much almost everyone who is firmly on the right side of the political spectrum to put him as best.  I suspect pretty much anyone on the left side even if only slightly left of centre would put him as the worst.  Mulroney, and Chretien were close to the centre so Chretien less hated by the right than either Trudeau but less liked by left whereas Mulroney less hated by left than Harper, but less liked by the right than Harper.  Paul Martin, John Turner, Kim Campbell, and Joe Clark were in office for such short periods it is unlikely anyone would have that strong an opinion on them either way.  Whatever one thought at the time, none as PM at least (as cabinet minister different story) left any lasting impacts.