Canadian Election 2019 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 192078 times)
rob in cal
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« on: March 14, 2019, 11:44:31 AM »
If the Quebec vote was split as it is in the poll at Lib 35, Con26,BQ 17, does that imply a huge Liberal sweep if those numbers held up, or is their vote not efficiently distributed?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2019, 10:50:51 AM »
  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2019, 10:46:16 AM »
  Quebec question.  Would there be a lot of potential tory voters who might vote tactically for the Bloc as a good way to defeat either a Liberal or NDP candidate, with the idea that a Bloc MP would be a potential vote for toleration of a minority Scheer government?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2019, 08:54:51 PM »
  Just put a small wager against Scheer becoming next pm at predictit. Odds were about 40%, and that seems too high to me.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2019, 10:30:34 PM »
  I wonder how the typical pro Quebec independence voter feels about lots of immigration coming into Quebec? If they are really serious about achieving a seperate country with its own french speaking heritage, cultural identity etc does the globalization of the population help that goal?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2019, 01:21:31 AM »
   Conservatives are kind of in a box because I would think most soft NDP or Green voters who are wavering, are wavering between voting for their first choice, and if not for the Liberals. Not a big universe of potential CPC voters out there, outside of the already small PPC electorate. Don't see how they get too close to a majority.
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rob in cal
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Posts: 1,984
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2019, 04:02:30 PM »
  Predict it has Trudeau with 82% chance of being reelected PM.  I got in earlier at 60% and 70%. The 60% bet was a few weeks ago.  He was around 70% just a day or so go.
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rob in cal
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Posts: 1,984
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2019, 11:29:36 PM »
Not sure why the disappointment among Scheer supporters.  The CPC performance is pretty much right about what was expected, maybe a little less strategic than hoped for, but basically they hit their support level.  The problem of bad vote distribution was there from the beginning of the campaign wasn't it?
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rob in cal
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Posts: 1,984
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2019, 01:02:41 AM »
  Too lazy to do the math, but if the smaller parties vote share stayed the same, how much of a popular vote victory of the conservatives over the liberals would they have needed to win a plurality of the seats?
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rob in cal
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Posts: 1,984
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2019, 04:13:15 PM »
  Anyway to quickly find a list of closest seat vote margins, say the closest 40?
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