Canadian Election 2019

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Global News now says to close to call!!

What's too close to call?

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There are 2 seats left to be called - Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where 1 poll is outstanding from who-knows-where, and Kitchener-Conestoga, where 6 polls are outstanding plus some special votes, from New Hamburg. Liberals lead both - it’s a race with the Bloc in Gaspesie--Les-Iles-de-la-Madeleine and a race with the Conservatives in Kitchener-Conestoga.

Does anyone know how New Hamburg voted in 2015? Naturally, all the images from our 2015 thread have been eaten, and the two interactive maps I found either aren’t working (election-atlas.ca) or don’t have popups with results.

election-atlas.ca is working for me in firefox.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Should I not be surprised the NDP picked up Nunavut? Seemed a bit unexpected.

Plenty of reason there to be dissatisfied with the status quo and they had a strong young candidate in Mumilaaq Qaqqaq
https://aptnnews.ca/2019/09/21/nunavuts-ndp-candidate-in-federal-election-is-25-just-like-the-inuit-who-founded-the-territory/

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

My question is whether any of the losing Tory leadership contenders (or O'Leary) would have done better than Scheer. I'm inclined to think that Lisa Raitt wouldn't have alienated as any moderates as Scheer did and probably would have won. Same goes for somebody like Peter MacKay, who of course did not run. Erin O'Toole and some of the others, maybe.

O'Leary or Bernier would have been real wildcards. I don't think Bernier would have stood much of a chance at victory as Tory leader.

Wouldn't Raitt have bled a lot of votes to PPC?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

nice gif-map here showing changes between '15 and now (click to see):
https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1186829755364106240?s=20

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Trudeau talks and comes off like an effeminate hippy and a hardcore SJW. That's not 100% true mind you, but those elements are there in his personality, and if you dislike thise things you will latch onto them. He is EXTREMELY minority-friendly and LGBTQ-friendly as well. You can see how some traditional conservatives will view this. His actual policy isn't noticed as much as his personality by his detractors, but they DO notice when he does controversial liberal things like giving taxpayer money to Syrian refugees and dressing full-on Indian on his trip to India.

TL;DR: He isn't a "man's man" that you want to drink beer, watch hockey and chase girls with, he's a liberal p__sy.

Though it doesn't quite explain the Cons' reach in places like Mayor Nenshi's Calgary.

When it comes to the urban West, it's a matter of being minority/LGBTQ-friendly on their own terms.  (Remember how as a federal politician, Jason Kenney was basically *the* Conservative face for multicultural outreach)

Yeah it's hard to explain running up the score in a riding like Calgary Skyview, that's <40% white, with "they don't like brown people".

The East-West split has been around for quite a few years and has taken different forms in terms of which party does well where. As a general rule, the same party doesn't do well in both urban Ontario and the Prairies (unless it's a big landslide).

After the Tories implemented the National Policy of tariffs with the US, Ontario became a strongly Conservative province in most elections to come. The West tended to swing back and forth, with each party frequently doing well there when in government.

After the First World War and the rise of the Progressives, the Tories found themselves weaker than usual on the Prairies (one reason for the 1925 & 1926 outcomes), while remaining strong in Ontario.  The Depression made that split even more pronounced, with Conservatives doing extremely poorly on the Prairies (generally coming third or fourth) while still doing well in Toronto. Looking at the safest Tory ridings from the 1920s to the 1950s, many are in urban Ontario (1921, 1925, 1926, 1940) or even Montreal (1930 & 1935).

Prairie populist John Diefenbaker brought the Prairies into the Tory fold in 1957 & 1958, but it cost him in the central cities: a lot of ridings that the Tories had seldom (or even never) lost before went Liberal or NDP in 1962 & 1963, and some have never come back. The Prairies, however, have remained very strong for the Tories (or Reformers in the 1990s) to this day. The safest Conservative/Reform ridings from 1958 to the present have always been (except 1988) on the Prairies, with Crowfoot maintaining a remarkably long winning streak (1968 through 1974, 1997, & 2004 to the present).

(In fact, the 80% majority obtained in Battle River - Crowfoot this time is the largest Tory majority at a General Election in at least 100 years, and the biggest margin for anybody since Pierre Trudeau's 86% lead in Mount Royal in 1968.)

Interesting that the Tories became the party most supportive of free trade with the US by 1988!  And that hurt them in the prairies I suppose?   Have the prairies always tended to be protectionist?