Canadian Election 2019

[ON Progressive]

Forum has released the first post-debate poll and it is a strange poll.

CPC 35% (+4)
LPC 28% (-6)
NDP 13% (+1)
Greens 12% (nc)
Bloc 7% (+1)
People's 3% (nc)

This poll has some absurd regionals, it should be said. They have the CPC at 75% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with the Liberals at just 2%! That is way too low, especially if the LPC is at 22% in Alberta like this poll claims.

In any case, plugging the numbers into the TooCloseToCall model results in CPC 154, LPC 122, NDP 24, GPC 4, BQ 33, and 1 independent.

[ON Progressive]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Léger has a big enough sample for regional numbers to be  meaningful.
In greater Montreal area, Lib still lead with 39%, Bloc rise to 24%, NPD rise to 16, Conservative 10, Green 8. If the NDP vote is concentrated in their good ridings maybe they can win more than Rosemont.

Quebec City still has Conservatives in the lead with 37%, Liberal 22, Bloc 21, NDP 11.
Rest of Quebec is Bloc 37%, Liberal 23, Conservative 20,  NDP 11.

Even if the Bloc and Liberals are about ties around 30%, The Bloc has a strong lead with fancophone voters.  Bloc 37, Liberal 24, Conservative 17, NDP 13. Non-francophone is Lib 54%,  NDP 15, Conservative 14, Green 7, PPC 5, Bloc 3

For best PM Trudeau is at 30%, Singh and Scheer at 12%, May 5, Bernier 3. They don't seem to include Blanchet in the choices.

There is a question about what you worry most, 4 more years of Trudeau or a return to power of the Conservatives. Fear of Conservatives got 48%, more Trudeau 37%. PPC and CPC are clearly no more Trudeau and Liberal fear Conservative, all near 80% level. NDP and Green is more 60% worry Conservative 30% worry Trudeau. Bloc is evenly split at 44%.

There are questions about the first debate and on second choice. NDP is most popular second choice with 21%, Bloc , Green Liberal, 14-13-13, Conservative 10.

Second choice of Liberal voters is NDP 30%. Bloc 23, Green 14, CPC 9 PPC 1.
Second choice of Bloc: Liberal 20, NDP 18, CPC 16, Green 11, PPC 3
Second choice of Conservative: 23% NDP, 16% Bloc, 11% Green, 10 PPC, 9 Liberal.
Second choice of NDP: 30% LPC, 25 Green, 17 Bloc, 12 CPC, 1 PPC
Second choice of Green: 39 NDP, 29 LPC,  11 Bloc, 4 CPC, 2 PPC
Second choice of PPC: 30% CPC, 19 Bloc, 8 NDP, Green 5, PLC 0

It looks like there is more link between Liberal, NDP and Green party voters. Some more surprising things is NDP being top choice of Conservatives. I think Bloc was a popular second choic in earlier poll but maybe those have migrated already. Also the first choice of Bloc is Liberal which is not natural but it's split evenly between three parties. Bloc is second choice of Liberal voters.

Léger Quebec results of the federal poll
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Politique-fe%CC%81de%CC%81rale-au-Que%CC%81bec-10-oct-2019.pdf

My theory is this is an Anything But Trudeau thing. 23% of Conservatives in the Angus Reid national poll have the NDP as a second choice as well.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

Why on earth is he doing this? This seems like something that would turn off more voters than gain, if for no other reason but because it seems rather phony from him.

[ON Progressive]

Campaign Research (Oct 8-10, changes vs. Sept 30-Oct 2 poll):
CPC 31% (-3)
Liberal 29% (-3)
NDP 19% (+5)
Green 10% (-1)
Bloc 7% (+2)
People's 3% (nc)

Ontario is 34% Liberal, 33% CPC, 20% NDP.

Quebec is 31% Liberal, 28% Bloc, 15% NDP, 14% CPC.

British Columbia is 29% CPC, 25% NDP, 24% Liberal, 18% Green.

[ON Progressive]

Have the ridiculous media blackout rules on east-coast results in the West come to an end yet?

That rule ended before the 2015 election, I'm pretty sure.

[ON Progressive]

I honestly am very worried that those urban Toronto ridings like Danforth/PHP/Davenport might be becoming solid Liberal instead of ridings we have a shot in. We completely and utterly tanked in those ridings, even with strong candidates.

[ON Progressive]

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.