Canadian Election 2019

[gottsu]

If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

[gottsu]

If Liberals will fail to get 170 seats in House of Commons, does NDP and/or Greens would be willing to support Trudeau's minority govt or even participate in coalition govt?

Canadian politics newbie is asking.

Support yes, coalition no.

There is no tradition of coalition goverments in Canada? Why?

[gottsu]

I don't think Scheer would be a good PM, I simply don't see him in that role, he lacks gravitas to me. Justin isn't better by a large margin, but he has good PR at least. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative PM was dignified, proud and strong to me, while Scheer is not.

[gottsu]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

[gottsu]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.

But do you see the room in Canadian public life for such party? I mean, how much percent of electorate have such views as Bernier? Are right-wing populists and libertarians pose a real threat to Tories?

[gottsu]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

[gottsu]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Bad news for Grits this time, they lost 4 seats in latest CBC's forecast - while Tories gain also 4 and they have expanded their lead a little bit in the popular vote poll - in which liberals also were making gains at present.

[gottsu]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

[gottsu]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

Mine

So post them here I am interested in federal predictions, if you're creating them.

[gottsu]

CBC is garbage. In other news, Mainstreet finds Windsor West tied between Masse and Pupatello.

Then what predictions or forecasts aren't garbage?

I think it's more like you're taking the "bad news" too much at face value without considering that the Poll Tracker's really at the mercy of whatever polls cross its windscreen at whatever particular moment.  And at this point, the 4-seat swing is too picayune to be an indicator of anything deeper or more lasting...

But if the Liberals were making gains since last few updates of CBC's forecast, and now they had stopped doing that - then you can call it "bad news". Also please note that I am relatively new to Canadian politics.

Another thing to keep in mind that there's been a bit of an "aggregator backlash" lately, with some pollsters shrinking at providing their figures to CBC on "proprietary" et al grounds.  So beyond the shifts being incremental and often momentary or by chance, it's increasingly questionable whether we'll get the full, accurate picture from such forecasts...

But this is the best we can get here. I trust CBC's predictions, but I am willing to look for other ones to compare.

[gottsu]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?