Canadian Election 2019

[super6646]

Totally forgot this board existed lol. Already posted this on the international discussion board, but it’s relevant here as well:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Intersting the Cons continue to hold a narrow lead in the PV (about 2%) while the Libs hold a slight edge in the seat count. If this happens, it would be the first time since 1979 (I believe) that the party that won the PV did not become the leading party in parliament.

Collapse in Ontario has absolutely been killing the Cons though. I can't see them gaining too many additional seats in the west at this point, so a breakthrough is going to have to occur at some point if a win is feasible. There are only two candidates over the last 40 years that have won when losing the PV vote in Ontario (Harper 06 and Mulroney in 88), and only one candidate has lost the seat count in that province and still won the election (Harper again in 2006). Odds are stacked against Scheer at this point in time.

[super6646]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015. I
 even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.

I think if the election were to happen right now then you’d likely be looking at a Small Liberal Majority. With the Conservatives making gains and the NDP struggling badly.

I don’t know a ton about different ridings but it seems like Conservatives concentrate votes in areas where they crush everyone else with big majorities. Meanwhile in the marginals Liberals consistently get just enough votes to take the seats.That’s why current CBC polls show Conservatives ahead in the polls (slightly) but Liberals to land more seats

Late reply to this, but this generally seems pretty correct. With the exception of BC (cons are ahead slightly, but their support is more spread out while the libs are running up the score in Vancouver), the  cons are generally running up the score a lot in Alberta and the other prairie provinces. Meanwhile, they’ve lost a lot of support in Ontario (Id presume especially in some of the battleground ridings in southern Ontario (if anyone could remind me what the specific region is called that would be great)), which means even though they can win the popular vote off of their gains in the west (and the cons are much stronger pretty much everywhere in this region compared to last time), it’s not enough to offset their losses. Already had a post about how important Ontario is to the cons, but I can’t see a path for a con win without them approaching at least within 2-3 points of the liberals at this time.

[super6646]

(if anyone could remind me what the specific region is called that would be great)

Do you mean the 905 area code

Yes, thank you.

[super6646]

Meh.

I’m not a hypocrite on these sort of issues. Happened ages ago, doesn’t define him as a candidate at this point imo. Don’t get me wrong he should absolutely should not be PM of this country, but I don’t see how this is an issue.

Neither should scheer’s comments on gay marriage 15 years ago though. I wouldn’t blame the cons for using this against him given the way he’s portrayed his opposition though.

[super6646]

Scheer's response is too opportunistic, Singh has shined in the past few days.  He looks like a serious player, rather than desperately fighting with the Greens for third place.

Singh capturing the spotlight is good for Scheer as well though. If Singh can siphon some of the Lib vote, it may give the Cons enough of a push in Ontario to drive them to victory.

[super6646]

Good to see the NDP and Bloc do well. Anything to hurt the Liberal coalition at this point is only doing good for this country.

[super6646]

Go cons go!

[super6646]

Canyon disappointing result.

[super6646]

Not a good start for the cons at all.

[super6646]

Greens win Beauséjour per CBC.

Global had Libs winning it...

Oof

[super6646]

To be honest, I don't think the Liberals are going to do as good as the others in this thread think. Atlantic Canada, which is typically titanium L, is showing to be a mural of not only red, but also blue, and a little green and orange. If this is how they're doing in THEIR territory, may God help them as this night goes on.

Although to be honest, the night is still very young, and anything can truly happen.

Most of the seats that flipped are basically Safe Tory, it's not a massive concern for the Grits. West Nova an exception though - anyone know what's happening there?

The Libs will win West Nova. The early vote was pretty bad for them, though.

Ummm... its been called for the cons.

[super6646]

Cumberland-Colchester looking close. Hope the cons can pull that out to get them to 7.

[super6646]

Looks like Scheer is going to be out of a job quick... very disappointing result if he doesn't win.

Crappy candidate to run sadly.

[super6646]

Cons blowing chunks. Bye bye scheer.

[super6646]

Scheer is done. Very disappointing result.

[super6646]

Singh blew chunks...

Hope he is out quick. Unelectable in this country.

Same with nut job Scheer. Sigh*

[super6646]

Cons aren't doing bad in Ontario either. PV within 3 pts, but the seats just aren't being won. If Singh didn't blow chunks, it could've been close.

[super6646]

Wascana looks bad for Ralph Goodale; definitely not good for the Grits out West if he goes, though being right next door to the Tory leader probably didn't help him any either.

His behavior in the lead-up to the campaign was rather vicious for him, and I think a sign of just how far the Liberals have turned into a Trudeau cult, much like the Trump cult down South: deny, downplay or excuse anything your leader does, and always turn it into a nasty (and usually dishonest) attack on the opposition. The sooner both nations are rid of their two loathsome leaders, the better, though obviously it won't start happening tonight.

Also, the Tories have finally surpassed the Liberals in vote share (they've been gaining slowly for a while). If the Tories get more votes but lose the election, it will be the first time that's happened since the 1920s.

Cons did it in 1979. Very ironic if it happens considering what happened in the US.

[super6646]

NDP with 2 seats left in Quebec...

Knew Singh was going to be unelectable in that province.

[super6646]

Cons up 150,000 in the PV. Looking like they're going to win it. Vote just wasn't efficient enough sadly.

[super6646]

Cons up 150,000 in the PV. Looking like they're going to win it. Vote just wasn't efficient enough sadly.

Kind of like democrats in 2016.

Can't miss the irony in that XD.

Btw, I'm not a Trump supporter (anymore, it was a mistake) if you are wondering.

[super6646]

Jagmeet Singh is leading in his district by around 700 votes, what an embarrassment of a leader. So many decent and good NDP MPs have lost their careers today

But he's "different" and whatever...

Idiotic to die on that hill. People don't want religion mixed with politics... it's almost 2020 ffs.

[super6646]

Interesting thing, the Cons are winning the riding of Kenora in Ontario. They were a distant third in polling according to 338. Looking like one of the few upsets in Ontario for the cons tonight?

[super6646]

The BQ can f*** itself.

[super6646]

Just curious, does anyone have a breakdown of the PV per province in 2015? Because the Cons are REALLY running up the score in AB rn.