Canadian Election 2019

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1101233079467704320

Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1101233079467704320

Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.

That all makes sense. I'm just going off of qc125's projections, which puts Victoria at solid Green: http://canada.qc125.com/districts/59041f.htm

The Greens jumped 20 points from 2011 to 2015, and I think it's reasonable to suggest that bodes well for them in 2019.

[Harlow]

New poll from Nanos:

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)

This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.

[Harlow]

New poll from Nanos:

34.7% CPC (+1.1)
34.2% LPC (-1.5)
15.5% NDP (+0.5)
  9.1% GPC (+0.7)
  3.6% BQ (-0.1)
  0.7% PPC (-0.5)
  2.2% Others (-0.2)

This is the second-best federal poll for the Greens since 2015. Will be interesting to see whether they pick up any votes from turned-off Liberals.

I'd be more interested in if they can take from the NDP.  I'm beginning to wonder if there's any possibility the Greens could actually beat the NDP in votes?  Or if the Greens could get Official Party Status?  (Though I recognize both are very long shots.)

I mean yeah, they’ll be taking from both, but I specifically meant I’m interested in seeing whether the current fallout from SNC-Lavalain will move Liberals to Green and whether those numbers will hold if so.

[Harlow]

Has there been any rumblings out of Nanaimo-Ladysmith?  I'm interested in if the whole Green surge would be boosted if Manly pulls off a win, and how likely that is.

I think there's also the potential for the PEI provincial election to have rumblings federally, perhaps enough to tip the by-election in their favor.