Canadian Election 2019

[DabbingSanta]

Interesting, Tories would have two point lead if PPC votes all went to them, but with such a small percentage I think will only matter if super close.

This might strike some as counterintuitive; but drawing from the Reform experience a quarter century ago, might PPC be stealing populist votes from the NDP as well?

Certainly possible.  In Europe, many of the right wing populists are gaining from traditional social democratic votes, in Toronto many of the strongest areas that voted for Rob Ford in 2010 and Doug Ford in 2014 are NDP/Liberal areas in the suburbs.   Likewise Trump won many traditional Democrat blue collar areas.  However with only 4% its such a small number that it is tough to really tell, it would need to be higher to get a clearer picture.

If (and that's a big if) they're polling over 1%, it probably depends on region. The People's Party is doing best in Alberta amd Quebec. Quebec, I can see, but I have a hard time imagining Bernier taking many votes from 2015 Alberta NDP supporters. His demographic there would be cranky Tories.

I think there was a fair number of populist Bernie-Trump voters that many Dems refuse to acknowledge. This group quite possibly swung the election and tipped the Rust Belt. I don't see Bernier gaining the same traction (minor party), but he could gain support among libertarian leaning folks, myself included.

[DabbingSanta]

I love watching the 338Canada site and their forecasts. They are currently predicting a Trudeau majority (48% odds) despite the close polling. They actually have the Conservatives ahead by 0.7% in the popular vote total. I can't recall any instances of that happening in my lifetime*. We shall see.

Edit: It last happened in 1979, with Joe Clark forming a minority gov't

[DabbingSanta]

He's done.

[DabbingSanta]

No prediction thread yet?

Popular vote:
Conservative 34%
Liberal 33%
NDP 14%
Green 9%
Bloc 7%
PPC 3%

Seats:
Liberal 144   (-33)
Conservative 142   (+47)
Bloc 28   (+18)
NDP 18   (-21)
Green 5   (+3)
PPC 1   (---)

Prediction for my riding... London North Centre

Liberal 39%
Conservative 32%
NDP 15%
Green 11%
PPC 3%

[DabbingSanta]

Even if Scheer wins the most number of seats, he risks losing to a Liberal-NDP coalition, which would be a sad day for our democracy IMHO, and also shows the issues with FPTP. This time, though, I expect you won't hear certain people complaining about it..

[DabbingSanta]

Metro Toronto is a sea of red, a collective cry of "oops, sorry."

Wasn't that to be expected?

No, conservatives should have been winning in the outer suburbs much like Doug Ford did in 2018. This was a very winnable election against an unpopular incumbent and Scheer blew it.

[DabbingSanta]

What would have the results been under proportional representation?