Canadian Election 2019 (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189199 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,286


« on: January 05, 2019, 06:47:53 PM »

About how many points would all of you say the LPC has to win by to keep their Majority?

I would say with current regional breakdowns Liberals need a 3 to 4 point lead so actually only a few points more to retain their majority.  Tories need about a 10 point lead so still a long ways from a majority.  In fact I figure the Tories need a 2 point lead in the polls just to beat the Liberals in seats.  The reason for this is voter efficiency.  Tories have the same problem Hillary Clinton had, win big in areas they are already strong in so lots of wasted votes (that would be Alberta and Saskatchewan) while Liberals win in a lot more areas but where they win it tends to be by much narrower margins.  The Liberals will likely get below 20% and 10% in far more ridings than the Tories so fewer wasted in votes in no hope areas, while unlike 2015, I suspect there will be few Liberal ridings over 60% and few or any of 70% and probably none over 80% while with the anger at the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan, I think you will see a lot of over 60%, over 70% and even a few over 80% for the Tories.  Rural Alberta is the Tories' strongest area and there is no place where the Liberals are likely to win as big.  

Depends how totally the NDP collapses. A lot of the Liberals' vote efficiency is because there are a number of seats where they would have enormous margins in a straight LPC-CPC fight but the LPC numbers are brought down by sizeable NDP votes. If the NDP does really poorly (<10 seats) at the next election, which doesn't seem implausible, the Liberals probably don't have a vote concentration advantage because they'll be approaching 70%+ in a lot of urban ridings.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2019, 12:33:52 PM »

  Is there much discussion about what would happen if Conservatives win the most seats but not that close to a majority?

Jagmeet Singh's already expressed his unwillingness to support a Conservative minority.  And there are recent precedents like BC and NB (and abroad, NZ) of lesser parties in minority situations forming government.

Though I wonder what might happen if Lib + NDP + Green don't add up to CPC: would the Bloc be up to supporting the Cons' right to govern?

Why should we expect the Bloc wouldn't be up to tacitly supporting the Tories now after they did it just recently in 2006-2011?
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2019, 09:00:01 PM »

Forum has released the first post-debate poll and it is a strange poll.

CPC 35% (+4)
LPC 28% (-6)
NDP 13% (+1)
Greens 12% (nc)
Bloc 7% (+1)
People's 3% (nc)

This poll has some absurd regionals, it should be said. They have the CPC at 75% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with the Liberals at just 2%! That is way too low, especially if the LPC is at 22% in Alberta like this poll claims.

In any case, plugging the numbers into the TooCloseToCall model results in CPC 154, LPC 122, NDP 24, GPC 4, BQ 33, and 1 independent.

Interesting that the CPC doesn't win a majority on a 7-point lead, although in practice this result would definitely be a CPC government.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2019, 08:58:19 PM »

Looks like a definite Liberal seat lead, probably sizable, over the Tories at this point, and therefore a Liberal government. Only question is majority vs. minority. The Bloc is doing well enough in Quebec that I expect the Liberals to miss a majority, but hard to be certain just yet.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2019, 09:41:30 PM »

Where did it all go wrong for the NDP?

They were supposed to do badly their late surge just raised hopes that they would not get crushed.

I mean, we were seriously bandying about the possibility of the NDP winning zero seats at one point, so this result is a significant improvement over what it looked like they were headed for over the summer.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2019, 03:50:36 PM »

Will be interesting to see what the average vote share for the winning candidates was this time (both overall & by party). Offhand, I'd guess that the figure rose for Tories & Bloquistes, fell for Liberals & maybe fell for New Democrats; an overall drop.

Figures for the last few elections are as follows:

2015 - Cons 51.2%, Lib 49.8%, NDP 38.5%, BQ 34.2%; 48.6% overall
2011 - Cons 54.4%, NDP 47.3%, Lib 41.2%, BQ 34.9%; 50.4% overall
2008 - Cons 52.8%, Lib 45.7%, BQ 45.6%, NDP 45.5%; 49.5% overall
2006 - Cons 51.2%, BQ 49.4%, Lib 46.8%, NDP 44.3%; 49.0% overall
2004 - BQ 55.8%, Cons 49.2%, Lib 48.5%, NDP 43.8%; 49.9% overall


Certainly from this one can see that the old 'getting elected by virtue of a fragmented opposition' saw is a description that better fits the New Democrats than the Tories.

Only because the NDP is so weak generally that they don't have any super strongholds/really safe seats, unlike the Tories (especially) and the Liberals (to a lesser extent but they do have some super-strongholds in west Montreal, parts of Toronto and, presently, Newfoundland), so none of their seats have huge margins. If the NDP were polling at ~35% of the vote nationally like the Liberals and Tories routinely do, they wouldn't have that issue. Try doing the same calculation, but uniformly swing each national party to the same percent of the vote nationally (or, for the Bloc, some arbitrary figure in Quebec same as the other parties) in each election, and you'll get a very different result.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2019, 05:55:54 PM »

Yes, the East-West divide is sharp in Canada in a way American observers may not be able to comprehend (we have no "Midwest" equivalent).  Also the Great Plains isn't a cultural region in the US but the Prairies very much is one in Canada.

I thought Manitoba and Northern Ontario were your Midwest.

Ew, I refuse to believe I’m from the Canadian equivalent of the Midwest.

To be honest, all of Ontario is the Midwest. Toronto is Chicago. Windsor, Hamilton, London, Niagara, Oshawa -- all very Midwestern. Sorry.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 09:23:44 PM »

Makes sense, Peterborough is a very good bellwether. Provincially, it's voted for the winning party since 1977.

How much swing would they need to get a majority?

A very tricky question to answer, but if one looks at the forty-nine ridings that the Tories came closest to winning they break down as follows: 34 Liberal, 9 New Democratic, 3 Bloc, 2 Green & 1 Independent. The forty-ninth seat is Mississauga – Lakeshore, with a Liberal margin of 11.1%.

If one looks only at the forty-nine Liberal ridings that the Tories came closest to winning, the forty-ninth is Don Valley North, with a Liberal margin of 15.0%.

Based on those two numbers, the national swing needed to produce 170 Tory MPs is somewhere between 5.6% and 7.5%; putting it another way, the Tories need a national lead of between 12.3% and 16.2% (putting them in a worse position than the Liberals ever found themselves in despite their domination of Quebec).


Now, I don't really believe that the Tories can't actually achieve a majority without a lead of that size; should they win, it will likely be to a big swing in Ontario, a moderate one in BC & the Maritimes, and probably just a small one in Quebec.

It would actually be nearly impossible for the Conservatives to not win more seats than that on a uniform swing because they are already maxed out and can't go any higher in so many seats out west, so additional swings must by necessity come in the more competitive seats/seats they don't already hold.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2020, 02:13:46 PM »

Unfortunately for the NDP Toronto lacks a more "naturally left" Winnipeg Centre/Hamilton Centre/east Van-type of seat.  The working class is dispersed and the Liberal Party is popular among all classes and in racialized and immigrant communities.  Likely to be a red fortress for the indefinite future.



Maybe there will be a Bloordale-Parkdale seat drawn some day that would have voted NDP even in 2015 and maybe 2019 I think.
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