Canadian Election 2019

[Jeppe]

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

Mainstreet found a tight race between Bernier and the new CPC candidate, who seems to be a star recruit in his own right.

[Jeppe]

Lol, Jagmeet Singh has a higher favourability rating than Trudeau now, according to Angus Reid (39% vs 36%).

[Jeppe]

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/cmaconthehill/status/1113860575203692544 My bet is if she wants to continue in elective politics, she joins Horgan and he gives her an advisory post till he can open a Vancouver seat next provincial election.

Yeah, if I were JWR, I'd just jump into provincial politics instead. She'd have a bright future there.

[Jeppe]

I don't think Desnethe is a particularly difficult hold for the NDP. The Conservatives are non-existent in First Nations communities in the riding, they only did really well in the white, rural parts of the riding, so they have a hard ceiling in terms of how well they can, as the riding itself is over 70% First Nations.

I don't particularly feel that Trudeau is well-liked among the First Nation communities as he might've once been, so unless turnout dips to 50% like it did in 2011, the Conservatives don't stand much of a fighting chance in a riding that is so demographically tilted against them.

[Jeppe]

This happened like 2 weeks but the Toronto-Danforth NDP nominated a candidate. Probably their best shot in Toronto to win back a seat from the Liberals, along with Davenport where Andrew Cash is running to retake his seat.

https://twitter.com/kristynwongtam/status/1134273668211781638?s=20

[Jeppe]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

[Jeppe]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

[Jeppe]

Who will succeed Singh?

I'd like to see Ruth Ellen Brosseau, given that she's re-elected this October.

[Jeppe]

When we're dealing with certain polls that show CPC with the only *double digit* share in Sask, then it's like being non-NDP provincially in Edmonton in 2015, or non-Lib federally in the Maritimes in 2015.

Oh, and today's Nanos shows Lib bouncing back into the lead--and the NDP sorta-correcting itself after a week or so in the Nanos doldrums (12.7 to 14.5; the same that the Cons dropped by).  The Greens also corrected themselves after a one-day down blip, at the expense of the Bloc, so to speak (who are back below 5% after several days of blackface-boosted overachievement)

Yeah, those SK numbers are not accurate. The population in Regina and Saskatoon are still majority left-leaning, it’s just that the vote split is very amenable to the Tories in a lot of urban seats here.

[Jeppe]

I wonder if the NDP can sustain their growth beyond a solid 20% this election..