Canadian Election 2019

[UWS]

Will Bernier win his own seat to begin with? Also, how much do you need to get back a deposit in Canada?

To get deposit back is 10% and outside his own riding and rural Alberta I suspect there will be few of those.  He will probably lose his own riding the question is to whom.  Will it go Tory as it is a fairly conservative area or will the splits be strong enough to allow the Liberals to come up the middle, hard to say.

Jeppe just posted about that Mainstreet poll. Bernier and the Tories are tied at about 35% in Beauce. Everyone else is around 10%

If the PLC took 22 % of the vote in Beauce in the last election, maybe Beauce could be winnable for Trudeau.

[UWS]

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

[UWS]

Trudeau will probably win reelection this fall regardless of the scandals.

Yep. Not even the Sponsorship Scandal has stopped Paul Martin's PLC to win the 2004 Canadian Federal elections by 7 percentage points nationally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sponsorship_scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Canadian_federal_election

[UWS]

7% for the Dippers in Quebec. 7.

Will any of their Quebec MPs survive?

I guess that one of the reasons why the NDP is doing so badly is because their progressive base knows that they won’t win the next election and so they decided to throw their support to Trudeau in order to stop Scheer because they would rather have Trudeau as Prime Minister than Scheder and they know that the LPC has the best chance of stopping the CPC from taking power.

[UWS]

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Political-Package-2019-03-29.pdf

LPC : 34,6 %
CPC : 35,1 %
NDP : 16,1 %
BQ : 4,4 %
GPC : 8,1 %
PPC : 0,5 %

This election is still a toss-up and 6 months is an eternity in politics. It has been recently reported thatCanada is warming twice faster as the rest of the world and yet Andrew Scheer has still not yet unveiled his damn environmental plan six months after promising to do so.

[UWS]

Now to quibble with your account: it doesn't follow that the NDP would have to vote for a Tory throne speech just because they voted down a Liberal one. Indeed something similar happened in 2007, where the NDP voted down a Liberal amendment to a Tory throne speech, and the Tory throne speech itself, forcing a game of chicken with the Liberals. The Liberals wound up abstaining. That seems like a plausible outcome as well.

Well I suppose that if we had a scenario where the Tories actually had more seats than the Liberals, the NDP could abstain on a Tory Throne speech and it would pass. But I suspect that the Liberals would do absolutely anything possible to avoid relinquishing power in the first place. They would either dare the NDP to defeat them and bring Scheer to power or they would agree to a slew of NDP demands - or some combination of the two.

There are things Trudeau and Singh could discuss and negotiate. There is literally nothing for Singh to talk about with Scheer

You mean that Trudeau and Singh would form a coalition government?

[UWS]

I wonder how the start of the process of the ratification of the new NAFTA could influence Trudeau’s chances.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201905/27/01-5227733-aceum-le-gouvernement-trudeau-amorce-la-ratification.php

[UWS]

Weekly Nanos numbers,change since last week:

LPC - 34.65% - +0.15
CPC - 30.38% - -1.32
NDP - 17.91% - +1.37
GRN - 8..77% - -1.03

I wish I could see the regionals but Nanos now makes you subscribe so pfft.

Trend: LPC have gained about 4% since June, the NDP gained about 2%. This is the highest the NDP has polled since March. Gains here for the LPC and NDP at the expense of the CPC, the CPC lost about 4% since June, the Greens are backdown to their normal polling averages, losing about 3% since June.

For the LPC and NDP in particular, the trend is even better when you go back two months and look at May, where we had highs for the CPC and Greens, vs current polling:

LPC - 30.64% - +3.74 (vs current)
CPC - 35.89% - -5.51
NDP - 14.19% - +3.72
GRN - 11.14% - -2.37

I knew it that Scheer was not invincible.

[UWS]

I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

For Montreal, it seems that the NDP could be wiped off there.