Canadian Election 2019

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He's done.

Sure, Jan.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Other than the natural post-Mulcair Quebec attrition and other places where they no longer had incumbent advantage (like downtown Toronto), they treaded water more than they took a tumble.  All in all, 2015 was the more critical "tumble" than 2019.

Yes, it was a a two-stage tumble for the NDP.

Kind of like 2006, 2008, and 2011 was a three-stage tumble for the Grits?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Something interesting to consider: in 2008 the NDP did somewhat good, then in 2011 they rocketed to the top in Quebec (Le Bon Jack, et al.), hitting 105 seats. Then they lost a ton in both Anglo Canada and Quebec in 2015, and then had a Quebec-specific decline in 2019, and thus they were back to where they used to be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Agreed. Obviously Jagmeet Singh should get a pass for the Quebec losses, but going backwards in Toronto, when Trudeau was tainted by scandal is not good at all, and absolutely needs to be corrected next time around.

I'm curious what the NDP post-mortems about the area have concluded.

Singh has gotten a remarkably free pass in the NDP.  They're using the yardstick of "we could have lost party status" and "he did as well as Layton the first time out."

does Singh have any potential at all to become the next Jack Layton?